Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.17
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.17! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
Wow, pitching doesn’t look very fun at all today outside of a couple options. Number one with a bullet for me is Zac Gallen. He’s averaging 19.2 DK points with a 2.74 ERA, 29.8% K rate and a 12.1% swinging strike rate. If that’s not good enough, he’s compiled those numbers facing the Padres, Dodgers, Astros and in Coors Field.
He gets the A’s tonight who sit eighth in K rate to RHP at 24.9% on the season. Six of the projected A’s hitters are over 22% in K rate since last season, making Gallen a perfect and cheap fit under $9,000.
Ross Stripling has been up and down his first four starts. He has two single-digit DK point games and two of at least 18 DK. At his price, I’m very interested against our favorite team to pick on, Seattle. Some of Stripling’s metrics are great, in honesty. His fly ball rate and hard contact rate are both higher than we like to see. I contemplated Griffin Canning but some of his metrics were even worse.
We’ll stick with Stripling and hope for the best here. We know Seattle strikes out a good bit, almost 24% of the time. Even in the last two weeks when they’ve cut back on the strikeouts a touch, they are still bottom five in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Stripling has some warts but the matchup points us towards success. This pitching tandem might be popular but I’m fine taking the two best looking pitchers on a slate that doesn’t offer me much. You can always get different on offense.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
It’s little early to know where all the ownership comes in but it’s also tough to not love the White Sox here against Matt Boyd and the Detroit bullpen. Not only has Boyd been mauled to a 10.24 ERA so far with five home runs given up, the Tigers bullpen has a 20% K rate as a unit. That’s third-worst and if you can’t strike out this White Sox team, they’re going to do damage.
The core three for me in this stack are Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez. Since last year, all three are at least at a .209 ISO and .322 wOBA vs LHP. It’s easy to sprinkle in Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal and even Yoan Moncada. If Boyd gets bounced early, Moncada doesn’t have to worry about a LvL matchup that isn’t his forte.
We need a creative stack to go with them and I’m looking at another team that mashes LHP in the Baltimore Orioles. WE mentioned it briefly when they faced Patrick Corbin, but the O’s offense is much better than perception. Just against lefty pitching, they are first in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Hyun-Jin Ryu is a good pitcher but Baltimore can absolutely get to him.
Fitting hitters like Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez and Anthony Santander gets really fun with the White Sox offense. They all sit over a .330 wOBA and the latter two are over a .230 ISO. Don’t forget about Pedro Severino if you spend up on catcher either. Mixing and matching White Sox and Orioles should leave you quite different and able to eat a chalky pitcher duo.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
We are in line to have an 11 game slate and we always want to look to be different. With offenses like the Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox and Yankees all in varying degrees of good spots, I hope the White Sox and Orioles come in lower-owned. I’d certainly want some exposure to those offenses we talked about if you’re playing a bunch of lineups. If you’re shooting for the Ricky Bobby “First or Last” theory, this is going to be a fun way to go!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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