Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.15
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.15! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
Choices for SP1
Yesterday’s slate looked phenomenal for pitching and then we had some scratches that threw it out of whack. Today’s slate doesn’t look nearly as appealing off the the top. I have to assume that Patrick Corbin and Walker Buehler are going to be popular options. The rest of the options are highly unstable.
I can absolutely understand going using one in cash games but this is Picks and Pivots. We’re focused on GPP and there’s potentially a couple gems hiding in plain sight.
I don’t believe Brian would be happy with me covering for him if I didn’t talk up a righty against the Seattle Mariners so let’s look at Christian Javier. He’s been a mixed bag so far with great starts vs the Dodgers and D-Backs but is coming off a poor outing vs the A’s. He’s been using the fastball/slider combo around 88% of the time. Seattle checks in at 28th vs the fastball and 20th vs the slider.
The pitch data is in Javier’s favor and he has 26.7% K rate. He’s starting to look solid at his price. Now we look at the Mariners projected lineup and see that seven of their hitters have K rates over 24%. At under $7,500, Javier is one way to get a quality start without spending five digits.
Choices for SP2
Now it’s time to get crazy because I’m going after Kevin Gausman as my SP2 tonight. He’s pitched 20 innings so far this season and has racked up a 28.1% K rate and slashed his walk rate to 2.4%. He’s exceeded 16 DK three straight games including starts in Coors Field and in LA vs the Dodgers. His .327 BABIP certainly suggests that his 4.05 ERA has been unlucky and the 2.43 FIP backs that up.
His splits so far this year would indicate success vs the A’s lineup as well. He’s faced 45 RHH so far and has only give up a .228 wOBA, .190 average and has a 33.3% K rate. The A’s are just average vs the fastball, and the fastball/splitter have accounted for all of Gausman’s strikeouts so far. Six projected hitters for Oakland have K rates over 24% and five are RHH. Remember that this approach is GPP only but this leaves us with quite a bit of salary.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
If you MME, I would have a Baltimore stack or two. That is specifically for MME only, however. One of the main stacks to catch my eye tonight is the San Diego Padres. I always prefer them against a LHP and Arizona is throwing Alex Young tonight. He’s only pitched 9.1 innings this year so small sample is noted. He still has a fly ball and hard hit rate over 41%, a 5.71 FIP and he’s given up three homers.
The trio of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wil Myers really stand out tonight. Myers and Tatis are in the top 3 of San Diego’s hitters against the fastball and slider (Young’s most used pitches). They also all three have an ISO over .320. If you go full out Padres, consider Tommy Pham and Ed Olivares as well.
To complement, I’m going right back to the well with the Houston Astros. They get another lefty to start in Nick Margevicius and are coming off an 11 run night. In addition, they faced the Seattle bullpen for basically the entire game last night. If you play the main three for the Padres, the grouping of George Springer, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel work perfectly.
All four have ISO’s over .230 vs LHP since last year and wOBA’s over .330. It just comes down to deciding on Machado and Tatis or playing Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa at 3B and SS. Truly, either option works and you can use the other Padres instead of Springer or Alvarez.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
With a much smaller slate on tap for tonight, we’re likely to see more chalk than last night. We talked about the top end pitchers and I would bet the Dodgers offense carries some ownership against Andrew Heaney. Taking the approach laid out here is likely to be a little against the grain, but we should always try to think a little outside the box for GPP.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
