Adam Strangis Three StriKes for Friday 8.14
Other than an epic Anthony DeSclafani implosion, it was a solid 2-1 day for Three StriKes. I’m mad at myself because me decision was DeSclafani vs Yu Darvish for the Cubs. I’m not always a big fan of betting on eight strikeouts so I talked myself out of Darvish to see him carve up the Brewers. Such is gambling life but we press forward. Three StriKes for Friday 8.14 may well be the most loaded pitching slate on the season and I’m pretty excited to break it all down!
StriKe One – Aaron Civale
When you have a pitcher with a K rate over 30% taking on the team with the highest K rate to RHP, you almost have to be interested. Civale’s number is certainly attainable here. Don’t forget to join DK Sportsbook if your state allows it!
Civale has two games of nine strikeouts already against much more talented opponents. He strikes out both sides of the plate at least 30% of the time so far. Detroit’s projected lineup has five LHH in it and that’s an advantage for Civale. He’s holding LHH to a .197 wOBA and .182 average, so the run prevention spot is great on paper.
If we think Civale can go six innings, hat’s only one strikeout per inning and he sits at a 10.89 K/9. Surprisingly, the Tigers are top 10 against the fastball so far but Civale throws it just 31% of the time. He uses a cutter basically the same amount and Detroit ranks bottom-five vs that pitch.
Bet – Over 5.5
StriKe Two – Dinelson Lamet
I’ve got a bit of a concern that Lamet is facing Arizona yet again, but he is so talented that I find myself going after this number for him.
He’s hit this number in three of his four starts. It’s hardly a criticism in the one he didn’t since he was facing the Dodgers. In his previous two games vs the D-Backs, he’s pitched 11.2 innings and has stuck out 19! They haven’t come close to figuring him out yet so the 6.5 is still well within reach.
The pitch data is a bit odd. With Lamet being just a fastball/slider guy, the D-Backs are at completely opposite ends of the spectrum. They are dead last vs the fastball but best vs the slider. I’ll side with the talent of Lamet and the 15.1% swinging strike rate. For reference, that’s sixth in MLB so far among pitchers with 20 IP or more.
Bet – Over 6.5
StriKe Three – Frankie Montas
This spot was reserved for Jacob deGrom but he was scratched as I was writing him up. No matter, because we have plenty of options tonight and Montas is a worthy candidate.
I went into deeper detail in Picks and Pivots today, but Montas has seen his splitter not be as effective. That helps explain his slightly lower K rate just a bit but he also still has a swinging strike rate of over 11%. He’s yet to give up a home run and the K rate of 24.2% is nothing to sneer at.
The Giants are up over 22% as a team for their K rate this season. Even with the Giants having more LHH than RHH in their lineup, Montas is still at a 22% K rate to that side of the plate. Every one of those lefties has a K rate over 20% and Montas was yet to hit his full potential this season.
Bet – Over 5.5
Bonus Pick – Brandon Woodruff
I said Three StriKes for Friday 8.14 was loaded, so why not give a bonus pick?
Well, that was fun. Woodruff now just takes the place of Montas for StriKe Three since Montas was scratched.
The righty for the Brewers has a 31.3% K rate on the season so far with a 13% swinging strike rate. The Chicago Cubs do boast a dangerous offense with a .342 wOBA (fifth) and .209 ISO (seventh). However, Woodruff already has a start of five strikeouts vs these Cubs this year. Considering he only threw 85 pitches, I’m confident in the extra strikeout tonight.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record 29-25
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
