Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.14
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.14! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
I could be wrong but I feel like this is the most loaded pitching slate we’ve had all year and I’m pretty excited about it. Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Dinelson Lamet, Lance Lynn, Frankie Montas, Aaron Civale, Brandon Woodruff….whew! There’s a ton to love here. That doesn’t even mention Spencer Howard at just $4,000.
When we are #blessed with pitching slates like this, I always tend to eschew to high end pitching. The theory being why pay top dollar for Cole or deGrom when you can potentially mimic their scores for a couple thousand dollars less? That should leave you more options for your offense which we’ll get to here shortly.
Choices for SP1
My first pitcher in comes down to Civale or Lamet. Both are averaging an identical 23.1 DK points per start and they are only $100 apart. My normal lean would be Lamet. I am a huge fan and he’s been pretty ridiculous through his first four turns. The K rate is 31.3% and the FIP is only 2.63. We do have to note the hard contact and fly ball rate aren’t spectacular at 45.1%. However, when your swinging strike rate is 15.1% those are lesser concerns.
My biggest concern with Lamet is this is not only the second straight time he sees Arizona, but the third in five starts. It’s never really been proven but there’s a train of thought that pitchers can struggle seeing the same team repeatedly. If that’s enough to worry you, simply turn to Civale.
The matchup is actually better for the Indians righty, as Detroit sports the highest K rate in the league to RHP at 31.2%. Civale does have a lower swinging strike rate at 11.2% than Lamet, but the 31.1% K rate overall is identical. Every single hitter in the Tigers projected lineup has a a K rate of at least 20% and six are over 24%. This is truly a toss-up as Lamet is more talented but Civale has the slightest edge I believe.
Choices for SP2
The choice here is a little bit clearer and it’s Montas for me. Much like Lamet, I do have a soft spot for Montas but he’s actually not even hit his real potential yet this season. That’s pretty scary for a pitcher who’s averaging 20.3 DK points so far this year.
Why do I think he hasn’t hit his potential? His splitter has not been a good pitch so far this year. In 2019, Montas had a top 20 splitter via FanGraphs ratings. He had a 22.8% whiff rate on it and only gave up a .155 average and .107 ISO on the pitch.
2020 has seen a marked shift in efficiency with the splitter. It’s not giving up power (Montas has yet to give up a homer) but the .308 average catches your eye. The BABIP of .571 does as well, so this means it will regress to the mean. When it does, Montas has even higher heights to reach. In 2019, the Giants were fourth-worst to splitters and sit 20th so far in 202. Montas is too cheap.
With Montas now being scratched, I’m shifting my attention to making a Lamet/Civale pairing work out instead of spending all the way up to Cole. It might mean a slight downgrade somewhere offensively, but both pitchers have 8-10 strikeout upside tonight.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
We’ll have to be slightly crafty with our stacks this evening with our pitching tandem but there’s two that fit well together. That includes a salary perspective and good matchup perspective.
The first stack is the Houston Astros. I was on board with the possibility that Yusei Kikuchi was a different pitcher this year but that seems false. He has a 1.22 WHIP to RHH and Houston is primed to smash LHP. The returning Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, George Springer and then one of Alex Bregman or Jose Altuve is how I’m looking to build this stack.
We need some cheaper options to fill the gaps and here come the Los Angeles Dodgers RHH. We likely can’t afford Mr. Three Homer Mookie Betts but that’s alright. AJ Pollock, Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor fit with the Astros pretty nicely here. These three players have at least a .337 wOBA and .178 ISO vs LHP since 2019. With Angels starter Patrick Sandoval giving up a .362 wOBA to RHH so far with just a 12.5% K rate, they are a perfect fit.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
If everything cooperates, we have 13 games on this slate and it feels like just a million ways to go. Remember, every other player has the same slots you do. Narrow down your choices and stick to your guns. It’s hard not to love being able to play offenses like the Astros and Dodgers with some serious pitching potential tonight, which is where I’m headed. These two offenses really work well together positionally on top of it.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
