DFSGhost NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, August 14
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering NBA DFS Picks and Pivots for Brian Tulloch for the next couple weeks. After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday August 14!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
The best thing any staff member can be is honest with you guys. My honest opinion here is to play one single lineup in a SE contest at a reduced bankroll or simply take the day off. I mean that wholeheartedly. Every single team is locked into seeding and nothing truly matters. Here’s a list of players we already know will not play –
Russell Westbrook
Ben Simmons
TJ Warren
Chris Paul
Jimmy Butler
Bam Adebayo
Will Barton
Myles Turner
Victor Oladipo
Goran Dragic
That doesn’t account for the the questionable players or the decisions by head coaches in the game. Simply put, this slate is a disaster and it is not worth putting any significant money into. If you’re looking to play, let’s dig into who we like.
Player Pool
On a slate with a billion question marks, I’m still likely playing James Harden. Yes, he might only play 25 minutes. Heck, I wouldn’t even play him if I’m the Rockets and I knew Westbrook was hurt. However, they also knew that last game and ran Harden 35 minutes. On paper, Harden has the highest ceiling if he gets even 30 minutes.
We have values galore but a couple that I think we can bank on are Chris Boucher and Tyler Herro. With Serge Ibaka being questionable for the Raptors again, I doubt he plays at all or logs big minutes. Boucher has been a big part for the Raptors the past two games, logging 29 and 22 minutes. He can still pay off his higher price tag.
Herro inherits a Miami offense that is down Butler, Bam and Dragic already. Kendrick Nunn come back into the lineup but they can co-exist. Both had usage rates over 24% and DKPM of at least 0.87, with Nunn being a bit higher in both.
Other values that I find myself liking early on include Jerami Grant, Doug McDermott, Duncan Robinson, Edmond Sumner and possibly others from the Clippers and Sixers if we get news. I understand, this is a little vague today but this is what we’re dealing with.
A perfect example is a player like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. With CP3 and Dennis Schroeder out, I would normally be all over him. He has a 33.7% usage and 1.25 DKPM in that scenario. The question is does he get enough run to pay off his tag or even get close to it. I truthfully don’t have an answer to that. This doesn’t even account for teams that could change tomorrow or after lock.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
As of Thursday night, my plan looks like this. I’m playing Harden and then I’m pairing up Herro and Nunn in the other two guard spots. Miami’s going to have a short rotation in a big way if all their questionable players sit. After that, Boucher and Grant are the next building blocks. Grant especially has been making the most of his minutes and coach Mike Malone has already started going easy on starters. Grant should get 30+ here.
With the Pacers players sitting, I’m likely to play McDermott as well. Dougie Fresh is here to get buckets and nothing else. We have plenty of salary left to work with and can make some decisions closer to lock with more information.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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