Adam Strangis NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, August 13
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering NBA DFS Picks and Pivots for Brian Tulloch for the next couple weeks. After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday August 13!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Do you guys know what time it is? It’s DAME TIME!
I’m going to get this out of the way right off the hop – I don’t care in the slightest that Damian Lillard is over $11,000 on this slate. It’s about time DK put some respect on his name. He SHOULD be at this salary and if it knocks folks off him, all the better. Portland locks the eight seed with this win, meaning they only have to beat the #9 seed once to get into the playoffs. Lillard is coming to play, period.
The crazy part is we learned that CJ McCollum is playing with a fracture in his back right now. It somewhat explains his muted presence in the bubble. In the 58 minutes without McCollum on the floor, Dame is at a 38.8% usage and a 1.82 DKPM. We don’t expect McCollum to miss but it is worth noting. Lillard is the building block of the day for me without question. I also want to fit in Jusuf Nurkic against that puny Brooklyn interior, but let’s see if that’s going to work.
Core Group
The smart thing to do here is stick to the teams that are fighting for the eight and nine seeds for the core group. That means Portland, Memphis, San Antonio and Phoenix. So this is basically a repeat of Tuesday but we’re not attempting to jam in Luka Doncic today. The Mavs are locked into the seven slot so the top end of players are not in my pool today.
Having said that, the goal now moves to look at the also very expensive Devin Booker. Starting with Dame and Booker leaves us with $4,833 a player so let’s go bargain bin hunting. I’m looking for a certain Spurs guard next in Derrick White, who has a 1.18 DKPM in the bubble and appears to be fine from a scary-looking knee injury. I’m not sweating his low minutes last game since it was an utter blowout. With these four players as a core, I’m kind of in love. I also have $3,475 left per player. There is a team that’s going to offer us some serious value to make this core actually viable today.
Value Group
The Milwaukee Bucks are locked into the top of the East and will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo after an inexplicable headbutt last game out. I’m of the opinion that even if Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez play, it’s not going to be for long. Enter the bench players for the Bucks, namely Frank Mason and Kyle Korver. There’s a good chance both players get significant run and can pretty easily pay off the salary against the Grizzlies. I might even take a stab at Thanasis Antetokounmpo in this one as he played 19 minutes last game and registered 25 DK.
Here’s the good news – Milwaukee is the first game so we should have information in hand. If we don’t feel comfortable, we can take the Utah Jazz value plays instead. Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley are already out so Tony Bradley should see some extended run and is the perfect punt center.
The Pelicans also afford us the chance to go double center punt with Jahlil Okafor. Coming off 26 minutes and a 31 DK performance, he is in a more difficult spot in theory. However, Nikola Vucevic only played 21 minutes last game. He could easily be limited again and I’m not super worried about Okafor. The Core 4 guys suddenly are looking pretty feasible.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
As of now, I do think we’re getting enough viable value plays to make a very pricey Core 4 work. That’s a big caveat because playing value does you no good if it’s just “the player is cheap”. Okafor, Bradley and the Bucks value all have reasonable paths to 6-8x. You need that to make the expensive guys worth pairing up.
If things go sideways, the player that I’d want first to replace Nurkic is Caris LeVert. He’s taken enough time off to trust him mostly here. The 31.5% usage rate and 1.25 DKPM is what we’re after here, especially with Portland on the other side. The value should shake out even clearer tomorrow!
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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