MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.12

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.12

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.12! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

It’s tough sledding again for pitching options as I’m not terribly interested in paying five digits for Zack Greinke. He just hasn’t shown upside yet to pay off that tag, not exceeding 19.3 DK points in any start. He has been getting his pitch count up but the fastball velocity still sits around 87 MPH. His changeup and slider are all around the same velocity and that just concerns me quite a bit.

The pitcher that does catch my eye is Kenta Maeda. He’s had three pretty strong starts so far (the worst coming against the Pirates) and has a 25.8% K rate. The walks are way down for him, under 5% and the hard hit rate is under 28%.

Drawing the Brewers lineup is a nice assignment right now. Sure, Christian Yelich is heating up fast but the Brew Crew as a whole still aren’t good offensively so far. They rank as the second-worst K rate team to RHP at 29.2% and are 25th or worse in OPS, ISO and wOBA. I’d rather save $1,200 over Greinke.

I am beyond scared to say this, but I think Zach Godley is worth a punt here. The Tampa Bay Rays offense has not woke up to this point. They are 18th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, slugging and batting average. Godley’s walk rate is just 8%, which would be a career best. The K rate is 22% through 11.1 IP while the hard hit rate and fly ball rate are both under 35%.

The pitch type data isn’t the most encouraging since the Rays are in the top half against the curve and cutter. Still, he’s under $6,000 and has some potential. He’s almost $2,000 less than Masahiro Tanaka and they both might be on the same pitch count. I’m all about saving the salary for MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.12.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

We certainly have some good options on a smaller slate but the first team that catches my eye is the Philadelphia Phillies. They get to face off against Orioles starter Wade LeBlanc and this is not a good matchup for the lefty. Through three starts, LeBlanc has a 2.51 HR/9, 13.1% K rate and a 6.17 FIP. Seven of the projected nine hitters for the Phillies have an ISO over .220 and eight have a wOBA over .325 vs LHP since last year. LeBlanc has already given up 4 bombs to RHH and outside of catcher JT Realmuto and outfielder Bryce Harper, Philly is dirt cheap.

A stack that works pretty nicely with the Phillies is the New York Yankees. Atlanta is pitching Huascar Ynoa, who can likely only go four innings deep after throwing just 39 pitches in his first start. Atlanta’s bullpen has been good so far with just a 3.05 ERA and a 3.61 FIP, but this is the Yankees at home.

They continue to mash and have the sixth-most runs in the majors. That’s along with the third-highest ISO, second-highest wOBA and second-highest OPS. Considering Gary Sanchez is hitting under .100 with a K rate of 49%, this offense still has room to grow. Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela all work extremely well with Phillies bats.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

With Coors Field not on this slate, we can rest a little easier knowing that doesn’t hover over us. The Yankees are likely to be fairly popular and that’s fine by me. Picking an offense like the Phils to go with them leaves you room to be different. I’m more willing to take some risks on pitching today and load up on the bats!

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

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