David Stowe NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, August 11
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering NBA DFS Picks and Pivots for Brian Tulloch for the next couple weeks. After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKingswith big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
In case you guys didn’t get the memo yesterday, I have to ask a favor – please don’t play cash these next couple days. Seeding is basically done with and almost every team is just trying to be healthy for the real playoffs.
There’s precious few games that aren’t at risk right now. Look at the Jazz yesterday. Donovan Mitchell so we target Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson…to see them all sit out the second half. NBA DFS is volatile and not for the risk-adverse right now.
I’m writing this at 10:30 PM on Monday night and here’s what I’m looking at as far as who’s out currently –
James Harden (really out)
Luka Doncic (likely playing)
Kristaps Porzingis (likely playing)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (50/50 I’d guess)
Joel Embiid (really out)
Ben Simmons (really out)
Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday (really out)
De’Aaron Fox (really out)
Caris LeVert (really out)
That’s eight big time names for fantasy that we already know won’t play. It also doesn’t count stars that might still sit out. The Bucks are on a back to back and even against the Wizards, they are scary. Four teams need to play hard on this slate – San Antonio, Phoenix, Memphis and Portland. Four out of 14 isn’t a real great ratio so I think today is less about a full game stack but sticking with a core group from those teams with one notable exception.
Provided Doncic plays, I love the idea of playing him and Damian Lillard. We know Harden is out so Russell Westbrook is going to be crazy popular. Harden came in at roughly 75% ownership even in GPP’s on Sunday’s slate. Westbrook might approach 60%. This is a quintessential NBA DFS: Picks and Pivots approach.
If that’s the case, I’d much rather come up $500 and play Dame as he’s pulling the Blazers into the postseason. The Rockets almost never cut their starters short, but reality is they have little motivation to play hard. If Westbrook or Harden get hurt, they’re done. Dame is going to play 40 minutes and even if Doncic plays 28-30, he’s a triple double threat.
I’d love to game stack that contest with Kristaps Porzingis and Jusuf Nurkic but cost is prohibitive. That pair with Luka and Dame would leave you with $3,050 per player so let’s forge a different path. My next thought is can we have a three man core of Luka, Dame and Devin Booker and that leaves us with $4,120 per player. It’s a tight budget but we might have routes to make it work.
We can look towards the Bucks and their value to make some of these studs work. They might not fit the prototype of teams that need to play, but that’s why you target cheap pieces like Pat Connaughton, Kyle Korver and maybe even Eric Bledsoe. The latter played 30 minutes yesterday so we need to see if he’ll even play but against the Wizards, these cheap pieces could be excellent value.
The other team that has little to play for but I’m using value players is the Rockets. The two that catch my eye the most are Austin Rivers and Ben McLemore. The latter has been hitting value with ease without Westbrook and the former just showed off his ceiling with a 60 DK point game.
Sticking with the teams that need the W, the Spurs could have a very interesting piece in Drew Eubanks. He has three games over 20 DK in the bubble and has a 1.13 DKPM in that period. He’s not going to be a minutes heavy player but we know Houston has a weak interior. It’s a risk but there’s a potential double double here for under $4,000 and the Rockets gave up the 10th-most rebounding chances in the league. Other sources of value could include Lonnie Walker and Dejounte Murray (not totally a value but affordable) if Derrick White misses this game.
The Suns offer us some help on the salary front as well. Cameron Johnson, Cameron Payne and Jevon Carter all put up over 30 DK yesterday and have been playing well in the bubble. Johnson in particular has been rebounding well and has a better chance with Embiid out for Philly.
I’m not likely to use much of Memphis is what is a bad matchup on paper and their salaries, but the one team that provides value because of who’s not available is Brooklyn. Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Joe Harris and Garrett Temple are all out for the Nets. Given the salary, Timothy Luwawu-Cabarrot is my favorite option here as he should shoot between 10-15 times and possibly more with now Temple. Also you can mix in Rodonis Kurucs and Chris Chiozza. Someone has to score for them even against the slow-paced Magic.
Both the Pelicans and Kings could have some pieces as well, but I’d want starting lineups before feeling comfortable. Considering that game starts at 9pm, I wouldn’t bank on it. Players like JJ Redick, Josh Hart, Nico Melli and Cory Joseph could all be viable but are also quite risky.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
These are the kind of slates where you play 3-5 lineups and set a core group that you want to be over the field on. For instance, If I play five tomorrow Lillard will be in four and Westbrook will be in one. That’s how to be different is to fight the chalk. My main three are going to be Dame, Luka and Booker. Past that, I’ll mix in the value players we discussed to take some different routes. Remember, the later players go at the bottom of the lineups!
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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