MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.8

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.8

I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering Aces and Bases for the weekend. Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 8th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. 

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Chris Paddack ($7,900 DK/$9,100 FD)

We’ll just get this out of the way – pitching is not real fun for MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.8. There’s a few options however. Especially over on DK, Paddack is a real bargain today. We saw last season that Paddack was demonstrably better at home, only giving up a .235 wOBA, 1.02 HR/9 and a 28% K rate. Those ratios are looking similar through two home starts this year and he’s under $8,000.

The matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks isn’t the easiest. They have good hitters that just haven’t hit well yet, but it’s coming. They also don’t strike out a ton at just 18.2%. However, Arizona is also dead last against the fastball this year and 27th vs the change. Those are Paddack’s two main pitches and the salary doesn’t match the talent.

Honorable Mention – Anthony DeSclafani

Top Ace(s): Clayton Kershaw ($10,500 DK/$10,600)

Kershaw is likely a bit overpriced here, but that does make him even more interesting in GPP. If the majority think he’s too expensive, they might not really go towards him. That could be a mistake as we could see vintage Kershaw tonight.

His first start of the season was dominant, striking out six in 5.2 IP on just 81 pitches. He also only allowed two fly balls, generating 11 ground balls over 20 hitters. He leaned on a fastball/slider mix almost the entire time and the Giants are 23rd vs the fastball and 11th vs the slider. The slider data isn’t that great, they’re barely in the positive so I don’t exactly fear that. If Kershaw gets closer to 100 pitches, he could pay off the ace price tag.

Honorable Mention – None

Punt Play: David Peterson ($7,200 DK/$8,300 FD)

The price is high for a true punt but in all honesty, the pitchers on this slate are a grab bag of not great options. There’s a case to be made for Ryan Castellani of the Rockies but I’ll let Brian make it in Picks and Pivots. Instead, let’s take a look at Peterson. The Marlins have been dangerous vs LHP so far and I think some of their veteran bats are undervalued just in a real life MLB sense. However, Peterson has not had it easy as a lefty pitcher so far in facing Atlanta and Boston.

He’s come out of those two starts with a 23.4% K rate and a 3.00 FIP which is fairly impressive. The swinging strike rate isn’t overwhelming at 10.9% but he’s also only allowing a 33.3% fly ball rate. Peterson is mostly a sinker/slider/change pitcher and the Fish are bottom half against the slider/change combo. Peterson is worth a look on this slate.

Honorable Mention – Castellani

Top Fade: Merrill Kelly ($10,000 DK/$8,500 FD), Jake Odorizzi ($10,100 DK/$8,100 FD)

I have no idea what’s up with these prices on DK. For either pitcher to be into the five digit range seems bizarre, especially since Odorizzi is making his season debut. Sure, Kelly has. 20.4% K rate (which isn’t even that great) but the matching 40.5% fly ball and hard hit rate don’t look that appealing. We don’t know how limited Odorizzi could be and I have no real interest on DK, although I suppose FD is worth MME exposure.

Honorable Mention – None

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.8.

Top Stacks

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – It can be said every slate but the Dodgers have all the potential to score the most runs tonight. They draw Johnny Cueto, he of a 1.42 HR/9, 10.3% walk rate, 5.21 FIP and just a 19% K rate. The main targets are Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson who all have a .262 ISO or higher vs RHP. Matt Beaty would be a great wrap around stack option.
2. Minnesota Twins – Is there a lefty on the mound? Yes. Are the Twins a great option with Nelson Cruz leading the charge? Yes. Cruz has been killing LHP since the Jurassic Era and adding Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano and even Byron Buxton is a great way to go tonight.

Value Stacks

1. Cincinnati Reds – Whenever there’s a pitcher who’s not going to strike hitters out, I’m interested. Brett Anderson for the Brewers qualifies as that and even though there’s risk with him being a ground ball pitcher, the Reds have lefty mashers in the lineup. The top of the lineup including Nick Castellanos (.347 ISO, .464 wOBA) and Eugenio Suarez (.293 ISO, .409 wOBA) are just way too cheap and even that little two man stack is viable in all formats.
2. Boston Red Sox – It’s extremely rare for the Red Sox to be a value but past JD Martinez and Rafael Devers, no hitter is above $4,300. Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogearts, Mitch Moreland and Alex Verdugo are crazy cheap. They’ll see Chase Anderson for about three innings and then the Blue Jays bullpen the rest of the way.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! I’m sticking with my flow chart offense. Do the Twins face a LHP? Yes. Will they likely mash? Yes. These three hitters should exceed their fantasy points for a 5x return! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.