MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.4

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.4

It’s that time again to jump into MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.4! Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 4th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. 

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases for 8.4 time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Cristian Javier ($6,500 DK/$7,200 FD)

The cash play on both sites is Kyle Hendricks and he should be chalky in that format, specifically on DK. However, Javier is an intriguing GPP option. I want to be crystal clear – he is a large risk. He’s pitched 6.2 innings above AA ball. However, he struck out eight Dodgers in his first start and was wildly impressive.

The Diamondbacks have struggled mightily out of the gate. The K rate isn’t through the roof at 21.8% (about where the Dodgers are) but the rest of their numbers….woof. They are bottom four in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ in the majors.

Javier featured a fastball that only hit 92 MPH but backed it with a slider at 78 MPH. Arizona is 23rd vs the fastball and top 10 vs the slider, but still in the negatives.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Hendricks

Top Ace(s): Patrick Corbin ($10,400 DK/$10,800 FD) Lucas Giolito ($9,100 DK/$9,400 FD) Lance Lynn ($9,900 DK/$9,300 FD)

We get a nice trio to pick from for Aces and Bases for 8.4 at the top of the list. I would bet Corbin comes in the lowest owned simply due to being the most expensive. After all, this is a Coors slate but keep in mind the Mets are the 12th highest K rate team vs LHP at 24.7%.

Lynn draws a matchup against an Oakland offense that has some power but also can be had with a K rate of 23.4%. They are similar to Arizona in their struggles early, with a .290 wOBA as a team. One point of small concern is Lynn’s walk rate at 13.3%. The A’s walk 12.4%, sixth-highest in the league. A walk or two and then one mistake alters Lynn’s start drastically.

My favorite is Giolito, for reasons that I outlined in Three StriKes today. It’s a shameless self-plug, but why read the same stats twice?

Honorable Mention – Max Fried

Punt Play: John Means ($6,400 DK/$5,800 FD)

By definition, punt plays can be risky and Means fits that profile. He got smacked by the Yankee lineup that should eat LHP but the Marlins are different. They might have a better lineup than most give them credit for but still. Means was excellent at home last year, allowing just a .258 wOBA and striking out 20.5% of the hitters he faced. Hopefully the rust is behind him and it shows on the Marlins who haven’t played in seemingly forever.

Honorable Mention – Jesus Luzardo

Top Fade: Dinelson Lamet

There’s really about two ways that I’m not generally playing Lamet on a given slate. One is if he’s in Coors and the other is if he’s pitching against the Dodgers. Now, if you MME maybe throw in 10% because nobody plays pitchers against the Dodgers and Lamet is talented. Still, you play the percentages and Lamet is not in my player pool tonight.

Honorable Mention – German Marquez

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.4.

Top Stacks

1. San Francisco Giants – This isn’t just a “the game is Coors” stack, the Giants lineup sets up particularly well against German Marquez. He got roasted by LHH at home for a .321 average, .372 wOBA and .894 OPS in 2019. The Giants can start Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford. They could even shoehorn Pablo Sandoval for five LHH against Marquez.
2. Colorado Rockies – It’s boring but Kevin Gausman is on the hill for the Friars and he’s allowed a 50.0% hard hit rate through his 8.1 IP. That’s not going to play at altitude at all. The 27% K rate is respectable but the 1.56 WHIP isn’t and this should be a slugfest.

Value Stacks

*Note* I won’t stack Angels but top prospect Jo Adell is a great price on DK as a one-off to afford some bigger bats.

1. Chicago White Sox – We talk in Discord about stacks being inherently risky and the White Sox absolutely are that. Brandon Woodruff is no pushover but he did allow a .326 wOBA to LHH last year in addition to a 17.8% HR/FB ratio. Start with the LHH and add a power righty for a sneaky stack. This is the Ricky Bobby stack – if you ain’t first, you’re last.
2. Houston Astros – Yes, the top bats aren’t cheap but hitters like Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel and even Martin Maldonado can make it work. Madison Bumgarner continues to decline, with a K rate of just 20%, and xFIP of 5.53 and a hard hit rate of 54.8%. The xFIP to RHH jumps to 6.31 and the fly ball rate is 50%.

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!