Adam Strangis NBA Games to Target for Monday 8/3
Welcome in to my inaugural version of NBA Games to Target for Monday 8/3! This article is scheduled to be roughly 2-3 times a week for now, and we’ll discuss game environments, totals, pace and other fun stuff to help set the lineups. We have a five game slate where 1-2 games really stand out but let’s not ignore the other three!
Nuggets vs Thunder, O/U of 218
Thunder -6
Pace – Nuggets -29th, Thunder 21st
Nuggets – Out – Will Barton, Gary Harris Questionable – Jamal Murray
I wouldn’t be banking on Murray here as he’s “very questionable”. At best, he might be limited so he seems like an easy avoid. That does leave us with some value plays in Monte Morris and Michael Porter Jr., but they didn’t endear themselves to anyone the first go around.
Both players were under 30 minutes and Porter battled foul trouble throughout the game. With Aaron Holiday the same price as Morris, the only argument to be made is ownership and I’d rather eat the chalk. Morris only had a 0.94 DKPM without the missing pieces and barely cleared a 21% usage rate.
Porter is a little cheaper but even in the same scenario, he was at a 1.08 DKPM. If he managed 32 DK points he would return value but it’s not a good matchup via FantasyPros DvP. The Thunder were in the top 10 against either forward position.
Nikola Jokic laid an egg the first game with under 40 DK points and draws a mediocre matchup. I think the most disappointing part was just 16 shot attempts for a team that was missing so much scoring. If paying up for center, I’d much rather Joel Embiid today.
Players to Consider in Cash – None
Players to Consider in GPP – Jokic, Porter, Morris
Thunder – No injuries
It can be a little difficult to get the right Thunder player on the right night. In the first game inside the bubble, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced the team with just under 40 DK. That’s not the 6x mark we look for at a minimum and the Thunder seasonal stats illustrate why it’s tough to pick just one.
The quartet of Chris Paul, SGA, Dennis Schroder and Danilo Gallinari all have usage rates between 23.3% and 27.2%. Schroder has the most usage but that’s with him coming off the bench. No player averages more than Pauls 1.17 DKPM, which generally caps them. The Nuggets allow the 10th highs 3 point frequency, so you could try to get Gallo in the right spot I suppose.
Players To Consider in Cash – None
Players to Consider in GPP – SGA, Gallo, CP3, Schroder
Takeaway – The first game we take about in NBA Games to Target for Monday 8/3 is not that great. Both of these teams are in the bottom 10 in pace and top 10 in points allowed on the year. Denver is a good bit weaker so you could try to play some Thunder, but I’m not over the moon about any pricing here. It’s most likely a fade for me.
Pacers vs Wizards, O/U of 227.5
Pacers – 7.5
Pace – Pacers 23rd, Wizards 5th
Pacers – Out – Domantas Sabonis, Jeremy Lamb Questionable – Victor Oladipo, Malcolm Brogdon
Indy is very shorthanded, having only played nine players in the first game and now they will almost certainly be without Dipo as well. He’s sitting out one of their back to back games and he played 32 minutes Saturday, so the math seems simple here. Brogdon missed the Sunday walkthrough so we’re assuming he is out as well.
That could mean we’ll see about an eight man rotation for the Pacers against the team that gives up the second-most points in the league. Yes, please. The main two targets for everyone likely will be TJ Warren off a 53 real point game and Aaron Holiday. I certainly won’t talk you out of those at all and I think they could be cash staples.
One player that might not get the attention he should is Myles Turner. Listen, he’s been mostly irrelevant for DFS through this season but Washington gets hammered by centers with the second-most DK points given up per game. Turner also averages 1.25 DKPM and over two blocks a game (sixth-most) and the Wizards drive as a team about 46 times a game. He could be a monster especially on FD where blocks are three points.
Don’t forget about T.J. McConnell and Doug McDermott for value in GPP either. The usage was nothing special for either, not above 18.5% but McConnell averaged over 1.00 DKPM and McDermott checked in at 0.82. If Dougie McBuckets gets hot from the field, he could smash value.
Players to Consider in cash – Warren, Aaron Holiday, Myles Turner
Players to Consider in GPP – McDermott, McConnell
Wizards – None
Well, the Wizards don’t have any new injuries. They are without some of their best players but they have been since they entered the bubble. I am curious to see if they limit anyone on a back to back like a Thomas Bryant or a Rui Hachimura, but that’s a guess at best right now.
Hachimura finally came down to a price where you could at least look at him but he’s not of a major interest to me still. Another player that I have no real interest in chasing after a 50 burger is Troy Brown Jr. He had such an outlier game with rebounds and assists that it seems silly to think anything close happens again.
My favorite target from the Wizards remains Ish Smith, who has played about 28 minutes both games and cleared 30 DK points in both games. This shouldn’t be a huge surprise with Smith owning a 26.8% usage rate and a 1.12 DKPM in the Wizards situation.
Players To Consider in Cash – Smith, Bryant if he’s not limited
Players To Consider in GPP – Brown, Rui
Takeaways – The Pacers should pick up steam as chalk and to me are the good version of chalk. I think Warren and A. Holiday end up as some of the highest owned players on the slate and totally get it. Turner is super interesting to me as well. If game stacking, I’m really just focused on running it back with Ish and Bryant. This could easily be the highest scoring game on the day.
Grizzlies vs Pelicans, O/U of 236.5
Pelicans -4.5
Pace – Grizzlies 7th, Pelicans 3rd
Grizzlies – Out – Justice Winslow
Memphis walks into this game healthy and this is the main even of the slate. Both teams need this game badly in the race for the 8 seed, it’s the highest O/U on the day by almost 10 points and both teams play at a high pace. I find myself agreeing with Brian and his awesome Picks and Pivots today (as usual). The main trio here for me is Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks.
Morant has been excellent so far, coming close to 50 DK points in both bubble games. With his price just not moving, I pretty much just want to lock in his 26.4% usage rate and 1.13 DKPM. Despite Jrue Holiday on the other side, New Orleans gave up the eighth-most DK points to PG’s this season.
JJJ is never a comfortable cash play with his foul issues, but this seems like a good exception spot. He’s played 35 and 43 minutes (OT game) so far and has managed to not foul out. These games are right in his wheel house and he’s right behind Morant with a 24.2% usage rate. If you MME, it’s never a bad idea to have Brandon Clarke shares if Jackson fouls.
Lastly for me, Brooks might be the butt of the jokes after his performance yesterday but this is a good bounce back spot. He somehow is second on the team in usage rate at 25.1% and he’s shown he’s not afraid to shoot. He’s hoisted 36 shots in two games and can get hot in a hurry.
The one player I’m undecided on is Jonas Valanciunas. He’s 10th in points in the paint per game but New Orleans actually gives up the sixth-fewest points in the paint in the NBA. If JoVal can keep up, he could be a sneaky target but he could also have a tough time.
Players to Consider in Cash – Morant, JJJ, Brooks
Players to Consider in GPP – JoVal, Clarke
Pelicans – None
One of the biggest keys of the slate as of this writing is Zion Williamson. He could be off the minutes restriction and I’m all in if so because he is ticked about not playing. If the Pelicans want that 8 seed, they’ll let him play. Zion could still be limited to 15 minutes or so, and then we’re back to the rest of the Pelicans main trio.
When Zion is off the floor, all three of Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball are over 1.00 DKPM. Ingram and Holiday have the bulk of the usage at 28.1% and 26.1% respectively. The prices for these players certainly aren’t cheap but they’re going against the team that gives up the 10th most points in the league. The fact that Lonzo and Jrue have been quiet could lead to some depressed ownership as well.
You can make an argument for JJ Redick in GPP since he can obviously shoot the lights out and the Grizzlies give up the sixth-most three point attempts on the year. On a slate without a lot of obvious value, you could do worse.
Players to Consider in Cash – Ingram, Holiday, Ball (Zion if he’s full go is my first choice)
Players to Consider in GPP – Redick
Takeaways – This game is the crown jewel of NBA Games to Target for Monday 8/3. If you don’t have three or four pieces of this game in cash, I think you’ll be far behind the field. The two main Pacers and this game is the safest cash build on the day.
Spurs vs Sixers, O/U of 227.5
Sixers -7.5
Pace – Spurs 15th, Sixers 19th
Spurs – None
If you’ve played DFS for any amount of time, you know Spurs coach Gregg Popovich can be a pain on back to backs. They still could get into the playoffs so I’m not sure if he pulls anything, just be ready to adjust if he does.
I really find myself not that interested in the Spurs today. I suppose you can still play Lonnie Walker Jr. and I suspect his 25 minutes yesterday were a soft limit to play some today. We don’t have a lot of value and he can pay off if he shoots well.
Past that, it’s a tough sell. The Sixers give up the seventh-fewest points in the league and Dejounte Murray could see some Ben Simmons. He’s another candidate for lower minutes today. DeMar DeRozan is far too expensive for my tastes and Jacob Poeltl has a very high chance of foul trouble against Embiid.
Players to Consider in Cash – None
Players to Consider in GPP – Walker, Murray
Sixers – None
A loss to the shorthanded Pacers was not what the Sixers were looking for to start the bubble. Their prices have shot up and that’s making them tough to get behind, at least on DK.
Embiid was an absolute terror against the Pacers and went for over 80 DK points. He would be my primary target and I wonder if he goes lower owned if people spend in the Memphis game. San Antonio was average to good in the paint for points and rebounds, but that was with LaMarcus Aldridge and it’s Biid. He’s going to eat Poeltl as long as this game stays close, which it will because it’s the Sixers.
Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris aren’t really on my radar that much. Harris is a little more scoring dependent than I care for over $8,000 (he scored 30 real points and barely hit 45 DK the first game) while Simmons will likely be capped by Embiid. Al Horford isn’t remotely in consideration in a bench role at $7,500.
Players to Consider in Cash – Embiid
Players to Consider in GPP – Simmons, Harris
Takeaway – This game doesn’t do much for me outside of Embiid. The pace is mediocre at best and the Sixers are generally good defensively when it’s not TJ Warren. This seems like a quality fade.
Lakers vs Jazz, O/U of 217
Lakers -6
Lakers – Questionable – LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Kuzma
There’s no expectations that anyone misses this games so let’s assume the Lakers are full go. There’s really only four players that I’m looking at in this tilt.
Both LeBron and AD are good at basketball, #Analysis. They both are over 1.40 DKMP and over a 29% usage, with Bron leading in both categories. If you subscribe to Rudy Gobert at least being a pain for AD, that could certainly lead you to just play LeBron and I would agree. I doubt either one comes in very high owned, which makes them interesting in GPP especially.
On the value side, we can look at Dion Waiters and Kyle Kuzma. Waiter has played about 22 minutes in both games and scored over 20 DK points, which is acceptable for his price and he has the ability to score in bunches. It’s kind of the same for Kuzma, who has looked really good in the bubble and has averaged about 30 minutes with his 0.87 DKPM.
Players To Consider in Cash – LeBron, AD
Players To Consider in GPP – Waiter, Kuzma ( I can see Waiters in cash at $3,200 on DK)
Jazz – Out – Bojan Bogdanovic
On the flip side of this game, there’s really not much. Donovan Mitchell is coming off a terrible game with under 20 DK and this matchup isn’t going to help. Shooting guards have scored the sixth-fewest real points against the Lakers and the third-fewest DK points. That’s a pretty easy no thank you in my mind.
Likewise, Rudy Gobert draws about the toughest matchup he could on paper. The Lakers are the best team in the NBA as far as points and rebounds given up in the paint. Considering Gobert is fourth in paint touches and does all his work there, I have virtually no interest.
Even the secondary pieces like Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson seem a little pricey for their potential against the team that gave up the second-fewest real points all season.
Players to Consider in Cash – None
Players to Consider in GPP – Mitchell, Clarkson just for scoring ability.
Takeaway – This is pretty clearly the “worst” game for NBA Games to Target for Monday 8/3. Both of these teams are inside the top 10 in points given up and and defensive rating. The best argument to be made is an ownership play in MME.
MKF Pick for 8/3
We’re going for the More or Less 5x and we’ll stick with the juiciest game on the slate, Grizzlies vs Pelicans. Let’s get to the cherry on top for NBA Games to Target for Monday 8/3.
I’m going over on all three of these. For starters, Morant has cleared that mark in both games so far. Ingram has only cleared it in one but he’s going to have so many scoring opportunities that he should approach 30 real points. Finally, Jrue is going to be on the court for nearly 40 minutes and racks up stats all over the board, including steals.
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the NBA page and projections on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
