Allan Fabrykant 
DU PLESSIS V STRICKLAND 2
Tonight’s UFC action takes us to the land down under, where we will witness the long-awaited Middleweight rematch between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland! This weekend, we have 12 fights lined up with some of Australia’s top MMA talent on showcasing here tonight. There will be some amazing matchups all throughout the night, so be sure to check out the top picks and plays below! Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 312 Du Plessis vs Strickland 2.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Jack Jenkins vs Gabriel Santos
Honestly, when I first saw these odds, they surprised me a bit; Jenkins has had a solid UFC career to this point, while Santos has struggled early on, going 1-2, with the sole win coming against Yihza.
What I like about this fight is that both Jenkins and Santos are well-rounded and can compete on the feet and on the ground. Given the high takedown defence rates of both Jenkins and Santos, I can see this fight staying on the feet for the majority of the 15 minutes. If that is the case, I see a significant advantage for Jenkins, who holds a much better Strike Differential (Strikes Landed per Minute – Strikes Absorbed per Minute) than Santos, who, on average, absorbs more strikes than he successfully lands.
With those kinds of stats, Jenkins would be smart to keep the pressure high early and get into a lot of tight boxing exchanges with Santos. Given how Jenkins’ prior fights have gone, I can see this one going the full 15 on the feet, with Jenkins having a clear advantage throughout the fight, I will absolutely be taking this value play in the main event of the Prelims.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jack Jenkins by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Jimmy Crute vs Rodolfo Bellato
This one is definitely one of the more straightforward picks of the night. Crute has been on a terrible run as of late, losing three of his last four fights with the other fight ending in a majority draw.
Crute is looking like a rising star on Fight Island in 2020. However, the coming years would prove to be a downward spiral that he has not been able to dig himself out of. From freak nerve injuries to one-minute KO losses, Crute has not looked good in a fight in a long time, and even worse, he’s nearly two years removed from a professional MMA fight. His opponent, Bellato, has had two fights during that time and is currently on a four-fight winning streak.
Bellato should be able to set the pace early with a super high Strike Landed per Minute rate (6.47 SLpM) and keep Crute on the back foot for most of the action. What is also of note is that there have been times when Bellato has found himself on the backfoot early, only to come back and secure a win. Given that, I am not expecting a decisive first-round finish but rather a fight that may appear close at the start but will eventually be taken over by Bellato.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Rodolfo Bellato by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Quillan Salkilld vs Anshul Jubli
Jubli is coming off a brutal comeback loss, which saw him dominate two rounds before getting flatlined halfway through the third round by a very unimpressive fighter in Mike Breenden. Neither Breenden nor Jubli have seen any UFC action since their 2023 matchup.
Jubli opponent Salkilld, on the other hand, has had two wins in 2024, with a further three wins in 2023. Safe to say that Salkilld is the way more active fighter. When it comes to skillset, Jubli has ok fundamentals and showed a good account for himself early in the Breenden fight, however, Jubli kept making poor Fight IQ decisions which ultimately led to him getting KOd.
Salkilld is no joke and will be able to adjust mid-fight to take advantage of Jubli’s weaknesses, and I don’t see Jubli being able to do the same. Stronger fight IQ coupled with Salkilld’s serious striking power makes this matchup a big problem for Jubli. I’ll be talking Salkilld all the way here tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Quillan Salkilld by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Sean Strickland vs Dricus Du Plessis 2
Let’s be honest. I doubt that the first matchup was very conclusive. It ended in a razor-thin split decision that many fans fairly saw Sean winning after outstriking Du Plessis in the majority of the rounds. Unfortunately for Sean, the takedowns proved to be enough to seal the deal for Du Plessis.
Given how the first fight went, I can draw a couple of conclusions. 1) We will see another 25 minutes of fighting 2) Sean will come into this fight with a renewed vengeance. There will be a lot of strikes coming from Strickland and he will push a heavy pace for all five rounds.
As was the case last time, Du Plessis’ path to victory will be by taking Strickland down, but given how the last fight went, I can imagine Strickland has gone back to the gym and worked on his takedown defence as much as possible.
By the end of this one, Strickland will have gotten the last laugh over Du Plessis.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean Strickland by UNANIMOUS DECISION
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Jack Jenkins ML +200
Quillan Salkilld (Double Chance KO/Decision) -150
Rodolfo Bellato (Double Chance KO/Decision) +110
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Sean Strickland by Decision +260
- Cody Steele by Submission +350
