Joe DiCarlo 
And then there were eight. The Wild Card Round is in the books as we’re left with four games of some serious football to play, along with some cash to be made in GPPs. Whether you are playing all four games together, Saturday/Sunday only, or Showdown Slates, keep it locked here for your player pools and who to fade this weekend. Get different, but not cute. Only draft players will be on the field. Remember, It’s win or go home for the league so everybody will be rolling out their top players. However, I’ll also be throwing in my Milly Maker Punts for larger field tournaments that I like in each contest that will provide tremendous leverage from the field if they hit paydirt (Washington’s Dyami Brown was last week’s gem).
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach Saturday Afternoon.
Saturday Slate 1/18/25
Texans @ Chiefs (-8.5) (U/O 41.5)
The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs kick off the weekend by welcoming the fourth-seed Texans into Arrowhead Stadium. Vegas opened up with a large spread and a low total in this one, as they see the Chiefs’ defense putting CJ Stroud in a vise while the Texans will see a plethora of talent to face at the quarterback and receiver positions.
Get in on the biggest bargain of the slate by stacking up on Mahomes with his loaded receiver core and cash some tickets this weekend. It is downright disrespectful to see DraftKings put Mahomes at just $6K along with Kelce at $5K. We all saw the Chiefs turn up the volume come playoff time last season on their way to winning a second-straight SuperBowl, why not run it back? Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Marquise Brown are also too cheap. Although the Texans’ DVOA ranks 6th in the league to opposing receivers and quarterbacks, the amount of talent this defense will face will be the most they’ve seen in one game this season. I am not in on the Pacheco/Hunt experience of the Chiefs’ backfield, due to each eating from their plates as well as emphasizing paying up for running back for the slate.
Houston shocked the market with their defense shutting down Justin Herbert and the Chargers picking him off four times and awakening Joe Mixon from his fantasy slumber as he put together a decent 20-point performance in the opening round. Nico Collins also returned to greatness catching seven of eight targets for 122 yards and a score, but the well-rested Stevie Spag’s defense may throw some shade on the near 9-point road dogs. Kansas City took away Mixon and Collins in their first meeting this year back in Week 16 keeping them out of the endzone and far from reaching 100 yards rushing and receiving. If you’re looking for action in Houston, consider Dalton Schultz and John Metchie who are very low-priced and should not receive too much attention while on the field as the focus will surround Collins and Mixon.
GPP: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Chiefs DST
Milly-Maker Punts: Justin Watson, Noah Gray, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Hutchinson, Irv Smith, Teegan Quitoriano
Commanders @ Lions (-9.5) (U/O 55.5)
Saturday Night features the highest total to hit the slate as the Cinderella Washington Commanders head into the Lion’s Den in Detroit to battle the best in the NFC. Can lightning strike twice for Jayden Daniels and Washington or will the team finally fall back down to Earth on the road against the most feared offenses in football? We’ll soon see the results and will highly be using this game heavily in our multi-game DFS contests.
Detroit has put it on tape this year as the top contender in the conference, and they do it by lighting up the scoreboard easily. They’ll also get David Montgomery back on the field ready for the playoffs after suffering a knee injury, but he shouldn’t affect Jahmyr Gibbs’ value on the slate after the monster games he’s had down the stretch as the bell cow. We’ll see him find the endzone in goal-line situations as it’s Gibbs’ job to lose as the Lions’ most versatile weapon on the field. Washington yields nearly 140 yards on the ground to their opponents. If looking to get different in contests, stack Goff with pass catchers like Amon-Ra, La Porta, Jameson Williams, and Tim Patrick as the field should swarm to own Gibbs.
The Commanders defied the odds sending Baker packing at home in the Wild Card, but the buck should stop in Detroit. That’s not to say Washington won’t score either as Jayden Daniels should land the Rookie OPOTY after his season and playoff run. His 104 QBR while being second in the league in rushing at the position in touchdowns (6) and yards per game (58) will place him in plenty of lineups facing a negative gamescript on the road. All of his receivers are viable especially Dyami Brown after his five receptions for 89 yards and a score against Tampa. Pivoting to Austin Ekeler or Brian Robinson at running back should separate you in many contests as your opponents in GPPs will stack the passing game for Washington.
GPP: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam La Porta, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson
Milly-Maker Punts: Tim Patrick, Brock Wright, Jamison Crowder, John Bates
Sunday Slate 1/19/25
Rams @ Eagles (-6) (U/O 47.5)
Sunday kicks off in Philadelphia for the second half of the Divisional Round as the Rams tackle the Eagles. LA’s disastrous fires around the city instilled a shot in the arm for the Rams this past Sunday in their decisive win against Minnesota, and they’ll aim to carry that momentum into Lincoln Financial Stadium. The Eagles also came out on top with a victory against the Packers, but it wasn’t pretty, as they leaned more on their defense which led to Jordan Love’s three picks. So far this week Sunday has some snow in the forecast with temperatures in the twenties, which may affect some of the scoring in this game.
The Rams’ defense also came up big this past Sunday, forcing Darnold to take nine sacks with two turnovers. The Eagles looked stale on offense, with Jalen Hurts still not 100 percent after suffering a concussion back in Week 16. I’m taking a shot on a cheaper defense of LA ($2,700) who have shown up strong in two of their last three games (23,14 FPTS.). Puka Nacua will face a tough matchup in Philly (4th in DVOA to opposing WRs), but he’s an elite talent and always a play in DFS. However, I prefer leaning toward running back Kyren Williams. His volume is through the roof in the backfield and heavily involved in the passing game. After watching Josh Jacobs breakthrough that Eagles’ front line last weekend, head coach Sean McVay could be rewinding some tape this week to get Williams into the same routine.
Philadelphia also utilized their defense to advance further into the playoffs and could very well need them to show up again to keep their championship hopes alive. LA came out guns blazing and could have the same hot start on Sunday unless the Eagles make some adjustments. Now LA is a dome team that is used to playing in a comfortable environment. Since they’ll be playing in 20-degree weather with real-feel temps at 15 and a chance of snow, I’ll also be using the Eagles’ defense for DFS.
Their offense was kicking rocks passed the Packers, literally from the leg of Jake Elliot’s five field goals on Sunday. To pay up for guys like Saquon and AJ Brown, who only had one catch in the Wild Card, would be pretty ballsy for DFS. However, I am interested in Jalen Hurts at just $6,800 on DraftKings. He showed us he’s still willing to use his legs at six yards per carry last week, and if the Rams are going to blitz as much as they did in Minnesota, we should see a strong performance from him. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are still a bargain and would make a nice underpriced stack alongside Hurts.
GPP: Jalen Hurts, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Rams DST, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Eagles DST, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, Tyler Higbee, Rams DST
Milly-Maker Punts: Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, Jahan Dotson
Update: Snow in the forecast in Philadelphia
Ravens @ Bills (1.5) (U/O 51.5)
We wrap up the weekend with the most anticipated matchups on the slate as the Ravens head up north to battle the Bills. In their first meeting back in Week 4, Baltimore manhandled Buffalo 35-10 at home, however, the Bills will host this rematch in the playoffs. This game should see fireworks, with a total over 50 and a tight 1-point spread, and could be another snow game on the slate, Plug away on both sides of this contest for your lineups.
I will be jamming Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry into my builds this weekend, regardless of their salaries. The duo has combined for well over 3,000 yards rushing with 20 touchdowns and has been impossible to stop as the number-one-ranked rushing offense in the game. With all the success in the run game, Lamar’s pass attempts rarely hit over twenty, but when they decide to throw the ball downfield, it’s been all Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Rashod Bateman. Now that Zay Flowers has been labeled doubtful to play and more of a high-pace game, expect to see more of Justice Hill in the backfield too, especially if Buffalo puts them in a hole early.
It’s do-or-die again for one more year in Buffalo, and the weight will once again rest on Josh Allen’s shoulders. Allen is a lock at quarterback obviously, but to stack him with any of his receivers other than Khalil Shakir would be pretty risky because of his generosity with the football. He’s hit 13 different receivers this year for touchdowns, but Shakir leads the team in targets with 106 this season. Baltimore’s secondary will be put to the test, still at a DVOA of 27th to opposing receivers and quarterbacks, feel free to take a shot on anyone else lined up alongside Allen. Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, and Dalton Kincaid are some of the names who regularly see the field.
How about James Cook, is he a good play? He’ll be up against the top-run defense so it will be a leverage move to draft him in this matchup as he’ll see very little ownership. If this game does stay close, we can expect to see more of Cook and less of Ty Johnson, who has been culturing touchdown passes from the latter. If Allen exposes Baltimore’s weakness in its secondary, Cook may see fewer opponents in the box and produce a solid stat line.
GPP: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, James Cook, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Amari Cooper
Milly-Maker Punts: Isaiah Likely, Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, Justice Hill, Mack Hollins, Ty Johnson, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Divisional Round! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
