Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 15

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Quarterback Rankings

• Josh Allen: Hard to not rank him at the top after last week’s performance in a game with the highest O/U of the week – see receivers for matchups
• Joe Burrow: Anything less than 3 TDs is a letdown. – see receivers for matchups
• Jared Goff: The Bills might make him throw it, and he has an arsenal at his disposal
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Will Levis: I make a case for every Titans skill player below, so I have to recommend him as a cheap option. Of course, you need the spends ups all to bust relative to their price. 

Running Backs

Chubba Hubbard

Dallas allows 25.8 DraftKings points per game to the RB. They have allowed 16 combined TDs to the position. They are ranked 26^th in DVOA in total defense and 29^th in DVOA against the run. Bryce Young has been playing better and has at least shown the ability to move an offense down the field (converting in the endzone is another story). Hubbard is coming off a 26-attempt game while also getting five targets. I doubt he will pull that kind of volume off again, but it sure is promising. He is priced too low on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is a lock-in cash game while also warranting plenty of GPP exposure. 

Brian Robinson Jr. 

Austin Ekeler is on IR. Noah Brown is out. That leaves Brian Robinson Jr and Terry McLaurin as the only Commanders you can put faith in to have a significant role in the Washington offenses. The Saints are ranked 31^st in DVOA against the run while giving up 15 total touchdowns to RBs (rushing and receiving) this season. The DraftKings price tag of $6,200 is just too cheap for BRob.  

Tyjae Spears (conditional)

If Tony Pollard is ruled out before kickoff, Tyjae Spears becomes the uber chalk at only $4,300. Fantasy bros that have been touting this guy for three years will finally get their victory lap. He is too cheap to fade against a bad Bengals defense. You just lock him in. 

Rachaad White (conditional)

If Bucky Irving is ruled out, White will shoot to the top of my list, even in a tough matchup against the Chargers. He would be dramatically underpriced on both sites while being used as the primary runningback and a WR2/3.

*Zach Charbonnet 

He is only on the FanDuel slate. I will be locking him in everything. 

Best Mid-Range (not listed above):

• Rico Dowdle: On the season, CAR has been the worst team in football against the run. 
• James Conner
• Rhamondre Stevenson

Others to consider: 

• Saquon Barkley
• Derrick Henry: 
• Joe Mixon
• De’Von Achane
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Chase Brown 
• David Montgomery 

A lot to like this week. I will be trying to narrow it down before and during the live stream tomorrow AM. As it stands now, I can make a case for each of them. I will let my receiver and QB build dictate which of these RBs I land on as of now. 

Wide Receiver 

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Out of the Lion’s receivers, the Sun God is my preference. He is the Lion’s primary slot receiver and faces Bill’s worst corner in YPRC, Taron Johnson, who plays primarily out of the slot. St. Brown leads DET with a 24% target percentage, averaging 18.1 DK points per game. He is on a three-game streak of no touchdowns but should be able to snap that in Week 15 in a game with a massive 54.5 total. The Bills are also ranked poorly against opposing WR1’s (27^th).

Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick are both in play in game stacks. Williams leads the team in air yards and YPRR. The Bills are also worse against the WR2 (29^th) than the WR1. I don’t expect another Tim Patrick monster game; I’m just looking for a couple of reasons. He will see a lot of Christian Benford, who has been solid. He also is by far the least targeted Lions receiver out of the starters. Dan Campbell also has a way of getting everyone involved, which usually means rotating monster games from one week to another. St. Brown and Williams are heavily preferred here.  

The Tennessee Titans

I am going right back to the Titans pass catchers right after they busted last week against the 30^th DVOA pass defense in the league. Before Week 14, it felt like one of these two guys was hitting the nuts weekly. All three of the key wide receivers find themselves as viable DFS plays this Sunday. Nick Westbrook-Ikhines’s touchdown streak was broken last week (but he almost got one at the very end of the game). He lines up on the left side of the field  47% of the time, which is covered by Josh Newton 67% of the time. He has limited opposing receivers to the least number of yards, but he is certainly still beatable. 

For upside, Calvin Ridley should put up the highest score. He will see Cam Taylor Britt more than anyone else who has been the Bengal’s worst cover corner. He allows 1.42 YPRC and the most air yards (12.6). He has the second-highest projected target share behind slot corner Mike Hilton. 

Tyler Boyd will see Hilton the most, so that is a positive for Boyd. The Bengals are also the worst team on the slate against the WR3 (29^th overall). Also, revenge who like to dabble in that narrative. 

Terry McLaurin

Is this guy coming in at 3% or less? The Saint’s season numbers against the WR1 are somehow elite, but that doesn’t take into account how they have been playing lately with the corners they have at their disposal, post-trade deadline. McLaurin will go against a significant amount of man coverage against the outside corners of the Saints. New Orleans is in the bottom five in yards per reception and yards per route covered in man. Overall, the Saints allow the highest number of YPRC of any team in the NFL, and McLaurin is going to get a ton of targets in this one, with Noah Brown being ruled out. 

Zay Flowers

The New York Giants are ranked 31^st against the WR1. The only team ranked worse is the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the game script doesn’t lead to many passes in the second half, but Flowers should be able to do plenty at a $6,000 DraftKings price tag. The last true blowout the Ravens were in was when they beat the Broncos 41-10, and Flowers put up 127 yards and 2 TDs for 32.7 DK points. 

Nico Collins

The Dolphins are ranked 25^th against opposing WR1’s. Nico Collins is the second highest-targeted (28.9%) receiver on the slate. He is a priority to get to like he has been all season. 

Khalil Shakir

He will get the majority of the slot routes against the Lions, who allow the 4^th most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. The slot is their weakest position, allowing 1.31 YPRC while also being the highest targeted by opposing offenses. Shakir leads the bills in YPRR and target share (25.4%). 

The New York Jets 

The Jaguars are the worst team via DVOA against the pass. The best way (not the only way) is to throw it down the right side of the field. Allen Lazard runs the most right-side routes on the season, so taking a stab at him is viable in large-field GPPs. He did get up to 78% of snaps last week, and we have witnessed Aaron Rodgers being more than willing to throw it to him even when Adams and Wilson are on the field. Aside from that deep shot, rolling out Adams or Wilson is warranted as well. As far as choosing one, that is a difficult task. My metrics lean ever so slightly towards Adams, so if I am forced to choose one (I am not), I suppose it would be him. 

Dyami Brown

He should see the largest benefit (aside from Terry McLaurin) from Noah Brown being ruled out. Brown was seeing the second most receiver snaps for the Commanders (up to 89% in Week 10). With those snaps now vacated, Dyami Brown, along with Olamide Zaccheaus and Luke McCaffrey, will see the field more. As far as raw playing time goes, I have Brown getting the largest bump. The Saints have been oddly good against the WR1 lately. However, they have been letting everyone else slip through the cracks. Brown is only $3,100 on DraftKings, and I am fairly confident he can beat that salary 9 out of 10 times he gets this role.  

Tee Higgins

He and Ja’Marr Chase are both going to run on the outside the majority of the time, while Andrei Iosivas gets 50% of the slot snaps. The Titans will still be without L’Jarius Sneed (their best corner), and the Bengals should be able to take full advantage in a game they absolutely must win (including all the games the rest of the season) to have a shot at the postseason. In all reality, too many things have to happen for the Bengals to get into the playoffs, but they are still going to be playing like they have a shot. Burrow can easily throw for 3-TDs here, and Higgins and Chase will be the prime beneficiaries. Higgins wins in this portion of the article for me simply because he is cheaper and has the same rotating matchup as Chase. 

Amari Cooper or Keon Coleman

Cooper is a better receiver at this stage in the game, but the matchups are essentially identical. Coleman is significantly cheaper, so if you can’t fit Cooper, you should feel comfortable with Coleman. 

Devaughn Vele

The Colts run a ton of zone coverage, and Vele is the receiver that typically benefits at the highest rate for the Denver Broncos. He leads the Broncos in target % and YPRR in zone. If you can not afford Courtland Sutton, who I also like a great deal at his mid-range salary, Vele is a nice leverage option. 

Others to consider

• Tyreek Hill: I’m not doing a big write-up here, but he is the preference on the Dolphins. Will draw the most favorable overall matchup for them when factoring in routes run, CB matchups, and projected target %
• Ladd McConkey
• Malik Nabers: Baltimore is terrible covering the WR, but the Giants offense is also terrible. 
• Jaylen Waddle: Comes in second in volume for Tua’s receivers but third in overall CB matchups. 
• Marvin Harrison Jr. 
• Malik Washington: I love the matchup and increased snaps via OBJ’s departure, I just don’t trust the volume
• Michael Wilson

Tight End 

Best Value: Brenton Strange

Best Spend Up: Trey McBride 

Value Pivots:

Stone Smart

He is a cheap, tight-end option who will be getting a playing time boost with Will Dissly ruled out. Tampa has been bad against tight ends overall this season (27^th via DVOA) but has been better as of late. If Ladd McConkey were to be ruled out, Smart would be in the running for the best TE value on the slate. 

Chig Okonkwo

I have loved targeting the Bengals with tight ends this season. They allow the 4^th most fantasy points to the position while giving up the second most receiving touchdowns (8). We have not had a ceiling game out of Okonkwo all season. His best game came against Houston in Week 12 when he caught his only target for one touchdown. In the past two games, he has been targeted ten combined times. I can work with that at only $2,900 on DraftKings and no ownership in large-field GPPs. 

Others to consider:

• Jonnu Smith
• Sam LaPorta: Likely just use him in game stacks
• Jake Ferguson: The matchup is there we just need to QB play to be there, too
• Mark Andrews
• Juwan Johnson 
• Tyler Conklin: Best DVOA TE spot in the NFL, but low volume option.

Favorited Game Stacks

• BUF DET
• MIA HOU
• CIN TEN

Favorite Team Stacks (not mentioned above)

• MIA
• WAS

Final slate thought. Going through my research, I made a case for every single skill position for the Titans, from QB, RB, WR, and TE. That scares me, but those numbers are what they are. Let go, Titans! (I guess)

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.