Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Week 1 of the NFL season starts with the Rams traveling to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Los Angeles Rams

Running Back

• The 49ers have allowed 14 rushing TDs this season (1 less than the Panthers) and two receiving TDs
• They give up 24.6 fantasy points per game to the position

Kyren Williams has to be a priority tonight with how bad the 49ers have been against the run, coupled with how consistent Williams is. Blake Corum is starting to get more looks (17% snaps last week), yet he remains an educated punt in showdown formats. 

Tier 1: Kyren Williams

Tier 2: Blake Corum

Good Punt: Kyle Juszczyk

Wide Receiver

On a Rams showdown, you have to force in at least one, if not both, of Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp. The primary cornerback matchups lean more towards Nacua tonight, so he is my first choice, but I will have a ton of Kupp in MME and in my main lineup if he fits. 

Demarcus Robinson is questionable, but I believe he can play. If he is out, Tuta Atwell should benefit the most, making him one of the top values on the slate. Last week, with Robinson in, he played 45% of snaps, compared to Tyler Johnson, who played 21%, and Jordan Whittington, who played 13% of snaps. Whittington is also questionable. If he is out, it should only benefit Atwell and Johnson. I highly doubt that Matthew Stafford gets Xaiver Smith involved in any capacity. 

Tier 1: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

Tier 2: DeMarcus Robinson

Tier 3: Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington 

Tight End

• The 49ers allow the second least number of fantasy points to the tight end position
• They have given up three passing touchdowns

Colby Parkinson commands the most playing time, yet in recent weeks, he has not been staying on the field for more than half of the offensive snaps. This will likely go up if Davis Allen cannot go tonight, not that it would lead to more targets for Parkinson in a tough matchup. Hunter Long would also see an uptick in playing time, yet again, this doesn’t mean more tight-end targets. Matthew Stafford has been staying away from tight ends virtually all season. Any of these guys are just Tier 2 punts. 

Tier 2: Colby Parkinson

Punt: Hunter Long, Davis Allen

San Francisco 49ers

Running Back

• The Rams have allowed 12 rushing and 1 receiving TDs to running backs
• They allow 24 fantasy points per game to the position

So this is going to be the most difficult spot tonight that could win or lose someone a GPP. I was not expecting Isaac Guerendo to play tonight, but apparently, he feels like he can. Does that mean he will be the lead back? Probably, but we have seen the 49ers pull the wool over our eyes with running backs already once this season, and I do not want to fall for it twice. Vegas has up lines for Guerendo, which leads me to believe they think he will get the lion’s share while healthy. 

Patrick Taylor was set up to be the starter if Guerendo was out. DraftKings and FanDuel both jacked his salary up, making him either the worst or the best play on the slate. If we get more word that Guerendo is a full go, then I have no choice but to fade Taylor at his current salary. 

*Tier 1: Isaac Guerendo

* Tier 2: Patrick Taylor

Wide Receiver

• The Rams give up 36.1 fantasy points per game to receivers
• They have allowed 14 receiving TDs to the position

The best on-paper matchup goes to Deebo Samuel in a “get right” spot. He is going to be a priority for tonight’s showdown slate. Jauan Jennings is hot and will run more slot routes than Samuel. I am not going to say to fade either of them I will say the opposite. You must play at least one (you can lump George Kittle into this if you prefer). 

Ricky Pearsall will run enough routes to potentially exceed value. However, he has not been that involved recently. He has one catch in the past four games and, on paper, has the worst CB matchup (not that it is a hard one). If you want to take a shot at him, go for it, but you can do better. Chris Conley is the next-best punt, seeing 25% of snaps last week. 

Tier 1: Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings

Tier 3: Rickiy Pearsall

Punt: Chris Conley, Jacob Cowing 

Tight End

• The Rams allow 13.4 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have given up four passing TDs

The offense will run through Kittle, Samuel, and Jennings. You are playing at least one and, more than likely, two. They are all priced within $1,000 of each other on DraftKings. If you can not choose which one you like the best, just make three teams. That is the real answer to how you win, not trying to read a crystal ball, against this defense. Other defenses would be easier to read. 

Tier 1: George Kittle

Punt: Eric Saubert

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel, like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Brock Purdy
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel
• FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jauan Jennings, Matthew Stafford, George Kittle

I prefer using the receivers on DraftKings.  

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Cooper Kupp, Brock Purdy, Kyren Williams
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Matthew Stafford

Best Value: 

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Puka Nacua
• Kyren Williams 
• Brock Purdy
• Deebo Samuel
• Cooper Kupp
• Matthew Staford
• Jauan Jennings
• George Kittle
• Isaac Guerendo (I want to hear he is a full go)
• Jake Moody
• Demarcus Robinson
• Joshua Karty
• 49ers D
• Rams D
• Tutu Atwell
• Colby Parkinson
• Ricky Pearsall
• Patrick Taylor (shoots up the board if Guerendo is limited, he is priced too high for a RB2)
• Kyle Juszczyk (favorite punt)

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Tyler Johnson
• Chris Conley 
• Blake Corum
• Jordan Whittington
• Hunter Long
• Eric Saubert
• Davis Allen

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Jacob Cowing
• Jake Tonges
• Ronnie Rivers
• Brayden Willis 
• Xaiver Smith 

Best Rules for the slate:

• This feels like a better MME slate for DK, where you can rotate through the high-volume CPTs on two condensed offenses. 
• Play at least one Puka or Kupp
• Play at least one: Samuel, Jennings, Kittle 
• Play at least three: Puke, Kupp, Williams, Samuel, Jennings, Kittle
• Jam in a QB based on our build
• I do like the kickers tonight. Most of my lineups will have one
• Don’t play more than 1 SF RBs, if any
• Get overweight on Kyren Williams if you can
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 TE per team per lineup 
• Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guy (include Kyle Juz here)