Joe DiCarlo 
What a Week 14 we had, the scores in our Discord nearly broke the slate with players like Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo stacked with Justin Jefferson and Josh Allen. It’s what makes me proud to see on Sunday evenings after all the hard work we put in here at WinDaily. Let’s run it back here in Week 15, we’ve jumped back up to 12 games on the slate so there will be a little more to break down. Let’s roll fellas, It’s getting down to the wire for the NFL Season.
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 12/15/24
Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5) (O/U 43)
The Cowboys, fresh from another embarrassing loss at home, will travel to Carolina to face a Panthers campaign that is beginning to show some heart. Dallas cost themselves the win on Monday night thanks to a costly mistake of turning the ball over while Carolina put up an extremely strong effort on the road in Philadelphia that went down to the final play. Both teams are hungry to get back in the win column, so it should be competitive.
What a way to get back on your feet if you are the Cowboys as you get to play the Panthers on the schedule. Although they put up a good fight in Philly, they still stink at defending the run (32nd in the league). Rico Dowdle dominated the backfield against Cincy on Monday night racking up 141 total yards, and playing 77% of the snaps, Start him in cash or GPPs along with Jake Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb who are due to a bounce-back game against one of the worst defenses in football.
Dallas was shredded by Burrow and the Bengals Monday Night, which has been the norm for Cowboys fans to witness this season. If it wasn’t Ja’Marr Chase on the receiving end from Burrow, it was Chase Brown at running back torching the Dallas linebackers. With the disappointing news of Jonathan Brooks landing back on IR, Chuba Hubbard will lead the Carolina backfield again, and Dallas is just one notch better at stopping the run ranking 31st in the league. The veteran Adam Thielen once again gets the green light for DFS as he’s scored twenty-plus points in back-to-back games. I don’t mind Bryce Young either with his $5,300 salary on DraftKings in GPPs.
Cash: Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard, CeeDee Lamb
GPP: Adam Thielen, Jake Ferguson, Bryce Young
Chiefs @ Browns (-4) (O/U 45)
The world champs continue to skate by their opponents by field goal victories and special team plays, and will look for one more in Cleveland this weekend. The Browns came up short against Pittsburgh last week, which was a loss that pretty much iced them out of playoff contention. While the Chiefs aim to lock up the first seed in the AFC, Jameis Winston and the Browns will be looking to play spoiler.
They keep winning, but it hasn’t been pretty for fantasy. It’s been defense and field goals that reflect the Kansas City record at 12-1, but can we keep rolling the dice on the pieces for DFS? Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain the only trustworthy players to draft in your lineups, although Kelce has been in a slight slump recently. The Steve Spagnuolo defense is also a reliable play against a Jameis Winston-led offense that has thrown six picks in his last three games (Two for touchdowns).
Cleveland has unlocked vintage Jameis. The passing volume has been extraordinary with 99 passing attempts in his last two games. However vintage Jameis does turn the ball over, so take it with a grain of salt. Even though Kansas City has been a top-ten defense all season, Winston will keep chucking it as long as he is under center. Jerry Jeudy has been his biggest fan, grabbing 14 of 19 targets for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Elijah Moore and David Njoku can join Jeudy and Jameis in GPPs on the slate.
Cash: Patrick Mahomes, David Njoku (if healthy)
GPP: Travis Kelce, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Jameis Winston
Dolphins @ Texans (-3) (O/U 47)
Miami will look to keep the momentum rolling after their overtime win against the Jets in Houston, where a well-rested Texans team will be waiting to pounce. The Dolphins offense has gotten better, looking back to 100 percent finally after losing Tua earlier this season. But will they be able to keep up with the firepower in Texas led by Joe Mixon? It should be a fun game to watch and definitely a part of the slate to grab pieces of.
Although Miami ranks seventh against the run, allowing only 105 yards per game, it’s not enough to sway me away from Joe Mixon. He ranks second in the league in fantasy points per game (21.2) and scoring 12 total touchdowns so far this season. His presence also opens up routes for Nico Collins who’s been averaging 17 yards per catch on the year. Both make solid cash game plays while Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz are GPP options against a beatable Miami secondary.
The Dolphins are back and are making a run for a Wild Card berth thanks to the efficiency of Tua Tagovailoa. He’s averaging over 75% of his completions since Week 11 along with 308 yards and 23 fantasy points per game. He’ll be indoors and away from the elements in winter which helps him out tremendously against a Tesxans’ defense that is 22nd in DVOA to opposing QBs. He’s a value at quarterback for cash, and his arsenal of teammates are all very useable in tournaments this week in a meaningful game for Miami.
Cash: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tua Tagovailoa
GPP: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz
Jets @ Jaguars (+3) (U/O 40.5)
The Jets land in a great matchup finally this week in a meaningless game against Jacksonville as their playoff hopes are over. The Jags season is over along with starting quarterback Trevor Lawrenece’s, so both clubs will be on the field to prove themselves for next season. The total is gross as well as these two teams’ records, but for DFS we could care less, let’s see who we can play out of this dumpster fire of a game.
When we get Jacksonville on the slate, our first instinct is to attack, and rightfully so (28th overall defense). However, they’ve picked up some of the pieces defensively, holding their last two opponents to just nine total points combined in each of the games’ first halves. The 40-year-old Rodgers still should be considered for GPPs at his low price tag of $5,400 on DraftKings regardless as he’ll continue to push for another run next season and prove his worth. Both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are viable pairing options for DFS, and at running back aim for the cheaper Isaiah Davis in the split backfield (Unless Breece Hall somehow gets healthy this week as he continues to miss practice).
Mac Jones has not been the answer fantasy-wise, although he did manage to pull together the team in a win against Tennessee. His teammates are rosterable, but there are not many in Jacksonville. Brian Thomas Jr sits on top of the target share chart, in his last two games with Jones, he’s caught 12 of 22 targets, one of them being in the endzone. Just keep an eye on the status of Sauce Gardner, who missed his last game due to injury. If he plays, he could slow down Thomas’ production.
Cash: None
GPP: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Isaiah Davis, Brian Thomas
Update: Breece Hall expected to play… downgrade to Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis
Commanders @ Saints (+7.5) (O/U 43)
The well-rested Commanders will travel after a bye week into New Orleans in a very winnable matchup to stay in contention of a Wild Card spot in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Saints could be rolling out some new faces in the offense this week as they may have lost starting quarterback Derek Carr after suffering a concussion and a fractured hand. We love Washington this week, but how much offense will they really need to turn out this week against a severely shorthanded Saints roster?
One of the hottest offenses in the NFC has made it back on the slate and will get a cupcake matchup indoors against a team that may struggle to move the football when it’s their turn on offense. The rookie Jayden Daniels can perform in this game without a doubt, but how much will he have to do? He’s always a lock for DFS in most cases but perhaps take the discount at running back with Brian Robinson Jr. and tight end Zach Ertz as opposed to paying up for Daniels and McLaurin. Not trying to steer you off these guys, just an option in case you would rather pay up elsewhere on the slate. Paying up for the Commanders’ defense is a solid play for $3,400 on DraftKings. One more note, Noah Brown landed on IR. Next man up is Dyami Brown who’s been playing 56% of Washington’s snaps. For $3,100 on DraftKings, he’s priced in for GPPs.
New Orleans will be a tough pill to swallow if you consider using anyone for DFS this week against one of the top five pass defenses in the league—bad news for whoever gets the start at quarterback which may likely be Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener. Although I can only see one possibility of using any Saints this week for DFS it would be Kendre Miller. Miller’s $4,500 DraftKings salary against a Commanders defense that allows over 137 yards per game (Only if Kamara is out).
Cash: Brian Robinson Jr., Jayden Daniels, Commanders DST
GPP: Zach Ertz, Terry McLaurin, Kendre Miller, Dyami Brown
Ravens @ Giants (+14.5) (O/U 43)
Baltimore also returns from their bye week and will ease back into the regular season as they face the pitiful 2-11 Giants in the Meadowlands. New York can’t finish their 2024 campaign any sooner as they will defer back to third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito as backup Drew Lock ended up in a walking boot. The number-one-ranked rushing offense will face the third-worst run defense, so you already know what direction we are heading for in this matchup.
The red carpet will be rolled out for King Henry at MetLife Stadium as the league’s leader in touchdowns (15) and second in rushing (1,407) will face a Giants’ team that allows over 140 yards per game. He’s a lock for cash if you can afford this Raven battering ram. The rest of his teammates are GPP options including Lamar Jackson, who may be on ice in the second half if this game gets out of hand.
Cutlets will get a second start this year filling in for Drew Lock, but after his performance back in Week 12 we should all be looking the other way for fantasy. He took four sacks against Tampa and only threw for 180 yards, with no attempts to Malik Nabers in the first half. Baltimore will bring plenty of pressure and force DeVito into making mistakes, so their defense is in play for DFS.
Cash: Derrick Henry, Ravens DST
GPP: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman
Bengals @ Titans (+5) (O/U 47)
Tennessee will host one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football in the Bengals. Cincinnati kept their playoff hopes alive with a win in Dallas as the Titans let one slip away last weekend against the one-win Jaguars. We’ve all witnessed what Burrow is capable of with his core receivers back at full strength recently, so don’t sleep on this matchup. Cincy needs to win against this pass-funnel-style defense so get some shares of this offense.
Joe Burrow leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns, need I say more about the Bengals for DFS? Force them in on any given slate. Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins are household names, but the real story is behind second-year Illinois back Chase Brown. Since taking over the entire backfield in Week 9 he’s averaged five catches per game. The Bengals will feast on the Titans’ 27th overall defense.
They’re not as weaponized as Cincinnati, but the defense Tennessee will face is just as beatable as their own. Although the Titans did put up a giant egg against the deplorable Jaguars, what can we expect from Will Levis this time out? I believe in second chances, especially coming off a bad week prior. Give Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Tyler Boyd a shot in tournaments facing a Bengals’ secondary that is bottom of the league in passing and rushing touchdowns with 40 total allowed.
Cash: Joe Burrow, Ja’Maar Chase
GPP: Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Will Levis
Patriots @ Cardinals (-5.5) (O/U 45.5)
The Cardinals, looking to gain ground in the playoff race, will host a young Patriots team that has been keeping its opponents honest. Last weekend, the Patriots barely lost to the Colts. New England has lost by a touchdown or less in six of their ten losses, so Arizona better brings their “A” game to the table if they want to reach the postseason. This matchup will float under the radar on the slate, so for GPPs take some guys from this game for leverage in tournaments.
The Pats have been middle of the pack defending against both ways of moving the football, so there’s no edge as far as a position to attack in this game for DFS. This game is a must-win for Arizona who have dropped three straight and fell to third in the NFC West. Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Trey McBride have all been the backbone of the offense, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will show up now and then. Kyler at $6K is robbery and a solid cash play this week while the rest are tournament plays.
Drake Maye has truly been fitting the part for New England, averaging over 250 yards with four touchdowns over his past three games. His rushing has also been fantastic this season, totaling 345 and a touchdown in his eight starts. Hunter Henry has been locked and loaded in the offense, ranking fourth in air yards and seventh in targets amongst tight ends. The receiver room is crowded in New England, but Kayshon Boutte remains on the field with a 90% snap share. He’s affordable at $3,500 on DraftKings, so he’s a great way to get different and save some salary at the same time.
Cash: Kyler Murray, Hunter Henry, Trey McBride
GPP: Drake Maye, Kayshon Boutte, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Colts @ Broncos (-4) (O/U 44)
Indy is back on the slate after a bye week and will land in Denver to battle Bo Nix and the Broncos, who are also back from a week off. The total is only 44, but the matchups for some of these players should hit their value this week. Both teams are aiming to make the playoffs, so it should be an intense game on hand.
The Colts rank 26th in defending the pass and 31st in defending the run, so pick your poison on the Denver side of the offense. The problem lies in the Broncos backfield, however, as head coach Sean Payton will play the hot hand in a three-headed monster at running back (Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime). Your safest path for DFS is to avoid the position and hammer in Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton. The duo have connected on 86 of 104 targets for the season, and fellow rookie Devaughn Vele at $4,200 on DraftKings is tempting at his salary against this defense.
Anthony Richardson has turned his game around after returning from the bench in the second half of the season. He’s done his work on the ground, rushing for three scores and over twenty fantasy points in two of his last three games, The last we saw the Broncos’ defense they allowed 32 points to Cleveland, giving us some optimism they may bleed again this week. Josh Downs will continue to demand the football from Richardson, especially if Pittman is to be covered by Patrick Surtain. Jonathan Taylor on price tag alone ($6,900 on DraftKings) is way too cheap and a great way to get different at running back in tournaments, regardless of the matchup.
Cash: Bo Nix
GPP: Courtland Sutton, Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs, Devaughn Vele, Jonathan Taylor
Bills @ Lions (-2.5) (O/U 54.5)
Behold, the game of the week will be played in the Motor City as the Bills take on the Lions in a potential Super Bowl LIV preview. The highest total of the weekend will feature some of the biggest names in the game, including MVP candidate Josh Allen. The field will pound this game for roster spots so it will be good chalk and loaded with cash game options. Both teams will be fired up and playing for a first-place seed with a bye in the playoffs, so let’s see who we’ll be scooping up for our lineups.
Josh Allen has been playing on another planet. How can you fade a guy who put up 54 DraftKings points last week and is now in another potential barn burner again? You don’t, just figure out how to build around him. Amari Cooper saw 14 targets against the Rams and is way underpriced at $5,300 on DK, so he caught my eye when it comes to stacking with the expensive Allen. His targets may go down though with the return of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid if healthy, but his price is worth the risk.
You just can’t go wrong with anyone in Detroit these days and their record of 12-1 speaks for itself. Detroit will look to start the game by establishing the run, and against a Bills’ run defense that allows 123 yards per game and 30th in DVOA to opposing backs, taking Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery as a no-brainer in this atmosphere. Everyone else is in play so don’t feel like you need to focus only on the backs. If Josh Allen goes off, Jared Goff will be forced to keep up the pace with targets to Amon-Ra, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. Tim Patrick as the number three receiver in this offense has also picked up a head of steam, catching two touchdowns in Week 14. Consider him in GPPs where as the rest of Detroit can be played in both formats.
Cash: Josh Allen, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
GPP: Jared Goff, Amari Cooper, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick, James Cook, Sam LaPorta, Khalil Shakir
Bucs @ Chargers (-3) (U/O 45.5)
The Chargers will host Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in LA as both teams look to make a run at the playoffs. Justin Herbert has been disappointing, but he gets another great matchup at home. Can we trust him one more time? Baker on the other hand has a rough road ahead of him facing a top-three defense of LA.
The Bucs are gross against the pass, period. That secondary allows the third-most passing yards in the league, which sets quarterback Justin Herbert one more time to shine. But hopefully, Ladd McConkey can suit up and shake his knee and shoulder injuries. Keep a close eye on his status in the second half of the slate. If he’s ruled out Quentin Johnston will become LA’s number-one wideout by default followed by Joshua Palmer. For some extra value at the tight end position, consider Stone Smartt who will be filling in for Will Dissly. Tampa is 27th in DVOA to the tight end and at $2,600 on DraftKings Smartt could be a wise move in GPPs.
I’m out on Tampa this week. Baker, Mike Evans, and Cade Otton are way too priced up on the road against this tough matchup. However, If Bucky Irving gets ruled out during pre-game warm-ups, then Rachaad White could be useful in a late swap. He scored 25 fantasy points owning the lion’s share of the backfield when Bucky went down against Vegas. Be prepared to swap out White and keep him in your flex if you are feeling another turnout for him. especially in the passing game.
Cash: Justin Herbert
GPP: Ladd McConkey (if healthy), Quentin Johnston, Stone Smartt, Rachaad White (if Irving is out)
Steelers @ Eagles (-5) (U/O 42.5)
Lastly, we end the slate with the battle of bragging rights for Pennsylvania as the Steelers take on the Eagles. Both clubs have a ton of momentum going for them as they each stand in first place in both of their divisions. Two very solid defenses as well as respectable offenses will clash on primetime, so break out the popcorn.
Pittsburgh has been stingy all season allowing their opponents to move the football on paper, except when they face an elite opponent (Burrow and the Bengals scored 38 on them in Week 13). But I wouldn’t stack up on Eagles for cash, keep them in tournaments. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and company will get the green light every day of the week, AJ Brown has been voicing his frustrations about his role in the offense recently. If the squeaky wheel gets its grease this week, Brown would be another sweet tournament move.
Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson will see the true test of his resurgence this week against an Eagles front seven that has devoured every opposing quarterback in their path since Week 4 with Baker Mayfield. But they have the future Hall of Fame coach of Mike Tomlin to figure out how to move the football, which has led them to a 10-3 record this season. They’ll be without George Pickens for another week, which will give Pat Freirmuth another bump in volume for one more game. The Steelers may also choose to run with their duo in the backfield of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren with the George Pickens injury. Mike Williams, Calvin Austin, and Van Jefferson round up the receiving room but are extremely risky as they all put up duds last week without Pickens in the lineup.
Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Pat Freiermuth
GPP: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Russell Wilson
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 15! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
