Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 14

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

• Adding Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to the pool. Moore should have an easier path based on primary coverage, but that doesnt mean Winston won’t hurl in to Jeudy at an alarming rate.
• George Pickens is out. Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson are great value options.

Quarterback Rankings

• Aidan O’Connell
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Jalen Hurts
• Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

Zach Charbonnet 

He is your chalk du jour in Week 14 that you can not avoid. With Kenneth Walker being ruled a surprise out after the slate salaries locked, Charbonnett snuck in with a $4,800 salary. Arizona has been middle of the pack when defending the run this season and is certainly no one to avoid with an underpriced workhorse like Charbonnett, who will also get work in the passing game. When Walker was out earlier this season, ZC averaged 21.8 DK points per game over two games. Lock him in and move on. 

Isaac Guerendo

Whenever Guerendo ($5,400) has gotten a decent workload, he has looked good. In Week 6, he rattled off 99 yards on ten carries (which included a 76-yard run), and in Week 8, he stacked up 88 all-purpose yards and a TD on 14 carries and three receptions. The matchup is good against the Bears. As of Week 13, the Bears are ranked 30^th in DVOA against the run. 

Here is a juicy stat that MagicSportsGuy found digging and shot over to me. When filtering rushing stats among RBs with 40+ carries (Guerendo has 42), he is 2^nd (behind Barkley) in yards before contact. Also, 9.5% of his runs go for 10+ yards. This is elite. For example, Jahmyr Gibbs is 1^st with 11.2%). The Bears are dead last in yards before contact is allowed. 

The one thing that worries me is the 49ers will still be without Trent Williams. That doesn’t help the run game, but at Guerendo’s salary and matchup, I will not overthink it.  He is a great salary saver on a slate where spending down at RB is going to be the popular way to build, for good reason. 

Braelon Allen

With Breece Hall ruled out, we get another super salary saver in Braelon Allon ($5,000). This guy had a stint of basically splitting carries with Hall until the Head Coaching change for New York. Allen is an extremely talented back and should get plenty of opportunities with how poorly the passing game has been for the Jets. He will also get a handful of receiving opportunities from Aaron Rodgers. Miami is 25^th in DVOA against the run while allowing 11 rushing and three receiving TDs over 12 games to the running back. 

Saquon Barkley 

He plays the Panthers. If he averages 167 rush yards per game over the next three games, he will break Dickerson’s record in 16 games. After the game against Carolina, he will know if that is a real possibility with the Steelers and Commanders on deck. Expect a huge dose of Barkley, but it is hard to pay up there with all the RB value we have. Then you must also worry about Jalen Hurts vulturing inside the 5-yard line with the tush push. I pulled the most rush attempts inside the five converted for a touchdown, and wouldn’t you know it, the Panthers are the worst on the slate. If that plays out again, that benefits Hurts, but if Barkley continues to break huge runs, that will not matter. Barkley would need to be the highest scorer on the slate for the play to make sense, but he certainly has a chance. 

Others to consider: I have nothing bad to say about any of these guys. 

• Alvin Kamara
• Bucky Irving 
• De’Von Achane

I don’t see myself getting away from these 7 RBs, even in my MME lineups. It is a three-RB week on both FanDuel and DraftKings. 

Wide Receiver 

Mike Evans

Mike Evans needs to average 96 yards per game for the rest of the season to continue his 1,000-yard season streak. He takes on the Las Vegas Raiders, 25^th in DVOA against receivers while being ranked 15^th against the WR1. With no other Tampa Bay Buc stepping up in the passing game aside from Cade Otton and Tampa all of a sudden in a position to steal the NFC South, Evans should get fed again. Despite Evans missing a month of playing time, the Buccaneers are still tied for the 4^th highest rate of touchdown conversions in the red zone. Evans, or Otton, will be the first look for Baker Mayfield when inside the 20-yard line. 

Jakobi Meyers

He is a target monster taking on a secondary we have been picking on all season at only $5,600. Easy play. 

Drake London

The Minnesota Vikings allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers (42 per game). This week, Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota to try and snap the Falcons out of a losing steak. That may or may not happen, but one thing is for sure: Cousins will sling it. Drake London was a fantasy darling the first half of the season, but now he is all of a sudden forgotten after poor QB play and a bye week. He maxed out his salary at $7,200 on DraftKings but has fallen back down to only $6,400. London is the highest-targeted wide receiver in the NFL inside the 20-yard line at 46.2%. That is insane. To be fair to the Vikings, they have the third-lowest red zone conversion rate at home in the NFL. Honestly, I just like the price and the potential game script for London. 

Miami Dolphins

Sauce Gardner is doubtful. C.J. Mosley is done for the year. The Dolphins should be able to throw it, as well as run it here. With evaluating all the Dolphins (Achane, Hill, Waddle, Smith) salaries, you probably want at least one piece, if not a full-on stack. There are no primary matchups to target or avoid, as everything seems pretty wide open for Tua and the boys. Jonnu Smith is the easiest, most reliable play. Tyreek Hill is the mega upside play, and Waddle appears underpriced at $5,400. I will run at least one Tua stack and see where I land on the leaderboard. 

Malik Nabers

He has the third-highest target rate in the NFL, behind Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and that has been sustained going through three different quarterbacks. He is in a great spot against the New Orleans secondary, he plays. If not, then there is going to be some Giants WR value opening up with guys like Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton. Both of which I almost wrote up at the beginning of the week, with Nabers projected in just due to how poorly the Saints can be at defending the pass. 

George Pickens

Cleveland is ranked 27^th in DVOA against the pass. They are ranked 30^th against the WR1, allowing 85.2 yards per game (3^rd worst in the NFL). I have some concerns about it getting chippy with Greg Newsom, which could result in PI instead of a completion, but we are not dealing with a shadow situation here.  Pickens also popped up on the injury report Friday with a hamstring injury, but that is more than likely just a rest day. 

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: DraftKings
• Calvin Ridley: FanDuel

There is a $1,000 gap on the receivers on DraftKings and a $100 gap on FanDuel. If you want to play NWI, DraftKings is the spot. 

We have to take a step back, like we did last week, and realize that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a legit offensive threat now. Don’t judge him on previous seasons, judge him on what you are seeing this season. He just keeps producing as the Titans WR2 with DeAndre Hopkins out of town. Now NWI takes on the Jaguars, who are ranked dead last against the WR2, while at the same time, he has been the most reliable WR2 in the game the past eight weeks. That is no longer a small sample size. His salary is up (but not high enough), but so is his production. If this guy’s name was different, he would be priced as a top-10 WR based on production alone.  

Calvin Ridley is criminally underpriced at $5,700 on DraftKings. He and NWI both play on the outside the most, so technically, they both have a very similar matchup. I am good with sticking either Titans WR in your last WR slot, depending on whatever salary slot you are trying to fill.

Keenan Allen

Good if D.J. Moore is in. It would be great if D.J. Moore is out. $5,600 on DraftKings is just too low, especially with the injuries the 49ers are dealing with. 

Jets

Seeing both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as cheap as they are is just odd. The same goes for Aaron Rodgers. Perhaps there is some merit to stacking them in the Milly Maker against Miami. With whispers of Aaron Rodgers getting benched and the Jets in the most literal must-win situation that exists in the NFL, perhaps we see one last gasp from the once-elite quarterback and his still-elite duo of Adams and Wilson. Breece Hall being ruled out doesn’t hurt either.  

Jauan Jennings

The Bears let Jaylon Johnson handle the best receiver on the team when said receiver isn’t a primary slot receiver. Jauan Jennings runs the most out of the slot (45%) and is technically the WR2 behind Deebo Samuel (37% slot routes). Samuel should see Johnson coverage slightly more (not exclusively), and Jennings has a higher target rate and YPRR anyway. Chicago is ranked 31^st against the WR2, largely due to what I will call the “Johnson Effect. George Kittle should also benefit, maybe the most. 

Others to consider:

• Justin Jefferson
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Tight End 

Brock Bowers

The best tight end in the league, who has the highest average targets per game (9.4), takes on the 31^st-ranked defense against the position. Tampa allows the third most fantasy points to tight ends on the slate. 

Jonnu Smith

He just keeps getting it done. That’s enough. 

Others to consider:

• George Kittle
• T.J. Hockenson
• Juwan Johnson

Others to consider:

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.