Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Week 14 of the NFL season starts with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Detroit to take on the Lions. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Detroit Lions

Running Back

• GB allows 26.8 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have given up eight rushing TDs, two receiving 

Here is the truth. You are not going to be able to predict which of David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs is going to score, but you can predict one of them will. I will not have a lineup that doesn’t include at least one DET RB. 

If you want me to take a guess, sure. I will guess it is a larger Gibbs day, with their salaries almost identical this week. 

Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery

Wide Receiver

• GB allows the 5^th least fantasy points to receivers (29.5)
• They have allowed ten receiving TDs in the year

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the top option and close to a priority in lineups. He runs 52% of his routes out of the slot while being the highest-targeted receiver for the Lions. He also will avoid Jaire Alexander for the majority of the game. I would expect Alexander to be more on Jameson Williams. Alexander is beatable, and Jamo just needs one deep ball to pay off. He is certainly in play with how many points the Lions offense is capable of. Tim Patrick is just a guy with nothing in the coverage scheme pushing me his way. If he fits, he fits. 

Allen Robinson is the only other receiver on the Lion’s depth chart right now. This was the same way on Thanksgiving, where he saw just 10% of snaps. He is a punt. 

• Tier 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Tier 2: Jameson Williams
• Tier 3: Tim Patrick
• Punt: Allen Robinson

Tight End

• Green Bay allows 14.6 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have given up four receiving TDs

Sam LaPorta is jumping out as an underpriced on DraftKings at only $5,600. I would lock him in cash and play a lot of him in GPPs. If you somehow find yourself with a Lions receiver, Laporta is a must-roster. 

Brock Wright played 43% of snaps last game. He is primarily a blocker but gets a look or two a game. He isn’t free on DraftKings, so you need him to score and get a chunk of yardage. I don’t have much trust in either of those things happening, so he isn’t high on my radar. Keep him off your main lineups, but mix some in if fading Laporta in MME lineups. 

• Tier 1: Sam LaPorta
• Punt: Brock Wright

Green Bay Packers

Running Back

• DET allows the second least number of fantasy points to running backs (15.8 per game)
• They allow the second least number of receiving yards to backs
• They have allowed seven rushing TDs

Josh Jacobs doesn’t draw the strongest matchup here, but his volume alone has him in high consideration. If I am forced to choose between him and the other top spend-up, Amon-Ra St. Brown, I would have a higher percentage of St. Brown, solely because I am more interested in the Green Bay passing game than the run game. 

That is not me saying fade Josh Jacobs. That is a hard call on a showdown slate. That is just me attempting not to recommend everyone on the slate and letting the matchups make the decisions. 

• Tier 1: Josh Jacobs
• Punts: Chris Brooks, Emanuel Wilson 

Wide Receiver

• DET gives up the 4^th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers (39.9)
• They have allowed nine receiving TDs (tied for three at least)
• Most of the production from the opposing receiver comes from yardage and catches due to trailing game script 

Jayden Reed is my favorite play on the slate. He will run the most out of the slot (80%), which is where most teams find the most success against the Detroit Lions. Lock in the former Michigan State stud on his homecoming game. I will favor Dontayvion Wicks over Christian Watson due to the matchup/salary on a showdown slate. Wicks has a slightly better outside matchup while playing just 5% fewer snaps than Watson on Thanksgiving. 

Bo Melton got 17% of snaps last game, with Romeo Doubs out, and Malik Heath got 2%. You can take a shot on Bo Melton if you are scraping the bottom of the barrel. 

• Tier 1: Jayden Reed
• Tier 2: Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson
• Punts: Bo Melton, Malik Heath

Tight End

• DET allows the least number of fantasy points to the position (7.1 per game)
• They have allowed one receiving TD.

The only thing Tucker Kraft has going for him tonight is a $5,400 salary. I don’t like the matchup, even though he may get the targets. 

• Tier 1: Tucker Kraft
• Punt: Ben Sims, John Fitzpatrick

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel, like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Jordan Love, Jared Goff
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs
• FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jayden Reed, Amon-Ra St. Brown 

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Jayden Reed, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jordan Love
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery 

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Jordan Love
• Jayden Reed
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Jared Goff
• Josh Jacobs
• David Montgomery
• Sam LaPorta
• Dontavyvion Wicks
• Christian Watson
• Jameson Williams
• Jake Bates
• Tucker Kraft
• Brandon McManus
• Lions D
• Packers D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Bo Melton
• Brock Wright
• Allen Robinson
• Chris Brooks
• Emanuel Wilson 

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Malik Heath
• Craig Reynolds
• Shane Zylstra
• Ben Sims
• John Fitzpatrick

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one QB; prefer Love
• Play at least one Lions RB
• Play at least one: St. Brown or Reed
• Play at least one Packers receiver; preference is Reed
• Don’t play more than 2 Lions receivers 
• Force at least one LaPorta, Kraft, McManus, Bates (they are all priced right next to each other on DraftKings, and at least one of these guys is exceeding value. 
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 TE per team per lineup 
• Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guy