Dave Gloeckner 
Week 13 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of classic AFC teams as the Browns head to Denver to take on the Broncos. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Browns and Broncos. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Denver is a 6-point favorite with a game total at 42. Points are a premium tonight with two good defenses taking the field.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Running Back
It’s official, Nick Chubb is back. Even though he returned to action 5 weeks ago, last Thursday was the first game where he flashed fantasy dominance again. Chubb saw 66% of the snaps to Jerome Ford’s 34%. And he received 21 of the 26 touches to RB’s (81%). In the week prior to last, Chubb got just 30% of the snaps. Last week’s game was his highest snap count and touches of the season and we can think his production will ultimately stay here or increase slightly.
Which makes him a good target on tonight’s showdown as Denver has allowed the 15th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. Their advanced metrics are solid, showing up as 4th in rush defense DVOA and 9th in rushing defense rating. But the issue is in pass coverage as they’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions to RB’s (68), 4th most yards (502) and 2nd most receiving TD’s (4).
Chubb has seen only 7 targets and 3 catches this season. So he might not make a huge dent in the passing game but he will get the goal line carries. So keep him in mind tonight.
But also consider Jerome Ford as he’s more of the 3rd down back who does have 26 catches on the season. If the Browns get behind early, the game script could call for more Ford than Chubb.
Tier 1: Nick Chubb
Tier 2: Jerome Ford
Punt:
Wide Receiver
Denver CB Patrick Surtain III is one of the top defensive backs in the league. Which is why the Broncos allow the 2nd least fantasy points to WR’s this season. Coming into Week 12, Patrick Surtain III has the highest rating for any DB in the league according to PFF. Opposite Surtain is Riley Moss who is a significant drop off and one you can target as he’s made just 8 pass breakups and 1 INT on the season while registering 51st overall DB according to PFF.
There is a story here in Denver for one of Cleveland’s WR’s. Former first round pick Jerry Jeudy returns to Denver who traded him away last season. And he’s been on a heater of late, averaging 6 catches per game over the last four games. In those games, he’s received an average of 9 targets. Important note here is Jameis Winston was the starting QB in all of those contests. And he may even know a trick or two on how to beat Surtain. So Jeudy is fully in play tonight based on story and recent play.
Elijah Moore is a top target for Winston too and he primarily works out of the slot adding value to his potential tonight against a tough Denver D.
With Cedric Tillman out, rookie WR Jamari Thrash will likely get the 3rd receiver role. The 5th round pick has only 1 catch on the season but that’s been in limited snaps. Thrash was all All-ACC 2nd team receiver in 2023 for the Louisville Cardinals. He has solid speed and could be very valuable at only a $1000 salary.
Tier 1: Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore
Tier 2: Jamari Thrash
Punts: Jaelon Darden
Tight End
David Njoku disappointed in the snow last week. He missed several catches, including a TD, that could have helped fantasy owners. In total, he had just one catch on five targets.
But the second of those numbers is key as it was tied for 2nd on the team last week. Jameis will continue to feed Njoku the ball and the Broncos are allowing the 20th most points to TE’s this year,
The other factor is backup TE Jordan Akins saw the field a good bit last week and reeled in three of four targets. So he should be considered in your player pool as well.
Tier 1: David Njoku
Tier 2: Jordan Akins
Punt/Fadeable:
DENVER BRONCOS
Running Back
At this point, does anyone really know what the Broncos will do at RB other than HC Sean Payton? In Week 12, Javonte Williams saw 56% of the snaps but just 50% of the touches. And Jaleel McLaughlin outpaced Audric Estime with 7 touches to 3. In Week 11 it was a similar workload for Williams, but Estime out-touched McLaughlin 9 to 4 in that contest. And then we look back at Week 10 and Estime got 45% of the snaps and 76% of the touches when Denver took on KC.
So in a recap, Estime went from leader in the clubhouse 3 weeks ago to seeing just 7% of the snaps and 15% of the touches last week.
Cleveland allows the 8th most rushing yards per game in the league at 130.6. But they’ve done a good job covering RB’s in the passing game allowing the second least receptions to ball carriers on ZERO receiving TD’s.
This is tough spot to favor anyone. Williams is getting 10+ touches the last 2 weeks and was the big winner on their Thursday night showdown back when they played the Saints. But if I trust anyone, it’s Williams. The issue I foresee is Payton flipping back to one of his other RB’s if they get a hot hand. There’s lots of risk here no matter who you play (if any).
Tier 1: Javonte Williams
Tier 2: Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime
Wide Receiver
This is where we get to the good part of this game. Cleveland allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. And their advanced metrics show it could be worse as they have the 2nd worst coverage rating according to PFF. DVOA has the Browns ranked 24th against the pass.
The Denver passing game has been electric of late, especially WR Courtland Sutton. The Broncos #1 WR is the most expensive player on the slate and that’s for good reason. In his last 5 games, he is averaging 7 catches and 93 yards per outing. Combined with his 3 TD’s, that’s good for 22.2 fantasy points per game.
The Browns have only one DB ranked in PFF’s top 100, Denzel Ward. Which is a big reason why they have been attacked regularly through the air.
My second favorite receiver in Denver is Devaughn Vele. The big bodied rookie receiver from Utah is a matchup problem. He’s also on a good streak recording double digit fantasy points in three straight outings.
Denver will rotate their other receivers based on scheme. We saw Mims get 4 targets last week making him an intriguing option for being the lowest salaried of the group. He’s brought in 9 catches in the last 3 games for 106 yards and a TD.
The weather looks calm in Denver tonight with a game time temp around 42 degrees F and light winds. Very good throwing conditions for Nix and his WR’s.
Tier 1: Courtland Sutton
Tier 2: Devaughn Vele
Cheap Options: Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr
Tight End
Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull have a combined 19 catches this season for 254 yards. The Broncos just don’t use the TE much in the passing game. I’d avoid this position unless you had to fill something in. I’d prefer the cheaper Broncos WR’s, such as Mims Jr.
Tier 1: Adam Trautman
Tier 2:
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bo Nix or Courtland Sutton. The QB’s are both in play as Winston and Nix will look to throw the ball downfield. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton
FDMVP Tier 2: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, Jerry Jeudy
FDMVP Tier 3: David Njoku, Javonte Williams
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Nick Chubb
DK CPT Tier 2: Jameis Winston, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy
DK CPT Tier 3: Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele,
DK CPT Punt: Jerome Ford, Broncos D
Best Rules for the slate:
- The weather looks to be nice for a December night game in Denver. Decent temps and low winds could lead to a happy passing attack.
- I don’t always lock in the top salaried player at CPT, but the Browns pass D is so bad that we have to lock in Sutton as our preferred top scoring player tonight. Reminds me of Mixon against the Cowboys a few weeks ago on MNF.
- If the game script presents itself, I do like the Browns passing game tonight. Playing Nix and Sutton then mixing in Winston, plus 2 receivers and then potentially a cheap RB (Ford, McLaughlin) is one of my preferred ways to go.
- The Denver running game is a mystery. But I still prefer Javonte Williams over the other options. McLaughlin is my second favorite based on his recent uptick in snaps and touches.
- Devaughn Vele is an impressive rookie. I will play him tonight and would be afraid to put him in a lineup with Sutton.
- Jerry Jeudy has been playing well with Winston at QB. And he has some revenge on his mind as the Broncos traded him away.
- Winston can give the ball away at a high rate. Denver’s D is in play. At a 42-point total, their D could even be considered in CPT spot.
- Consider a kicker with the team you have more players on. If someone gets down, they will avoid kicking FG’s.
- Keep an eye on Jamari Thrash. He likely gets a start tonight as Cedrick Tillman is out with a concussion.
- As far as cheaper options in the Denver passing game, I prefer Mims to Franklin. He’s a deep threat that they should give one downfield chance to.
- Jerome Ford could be a hero of this slate if the Browns are down and have to pass almost every down.
Favorite prop for the game: Jerome Ford over 1.5 receptions (-165 BetMGM)
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