Joe DiCarlo 
We are back once again for another breakdown of every game on the main slate for your DFS appetite, where last week brought you some juicy plays like Luke Schoonmaker and Bucky Irving who both produced six times their values. We hope you have enjoyed your Thanksgiving, so put the leftovers to the side and enjoy my take on this ten-game slate. The season is beginning to wind down, but plenty of money remains to be made!
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 12/1/24
Seahawks @ Jets (+2) (O/U 41.5)
We kick off the slate in Jersey as the first-place NFC West Seahawks take on the well-rested 3-8 Jets. Seattle will need a win to gain some breathing room from Arizona and LA in the division while New York will be playing to save face from a very disappointing season.
Geno Smith will return to face the team that drafted him back in 2013 and later kicked him to the curb after just four years. Now a seasoned veteran, Smith will lead a healthy arsenal of DK Metcalf and Jaxson Smith-Njigba, along with stud running back Kenneth Walker, into the swamp, lands against a solid Jets’ secondary that’s ranked second in the league. New York does allow over 130 yards per game on the ground, making Kenneth Walker the safest play at $7K on DraftKings.
The season is a wrap for New York and will aim to end it on a high note as it comes to a close. Seattle’s pass defense is mid-tier, but against the run, they also allow over 130 yards per game. We should see plenty of Breece Hall, if he can shake his knee soreness, exploiting the Seahawks’ lack of defending the run. However, Aaron Rodgers will also look to get the ball to Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, who each average double-digit targets per game.
Cash: Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall
GPP: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Texans @ Jaguars (+5) (O/U 43.5)
We have an AFC South matchup between the first and last-place teams as the Texans take on the Jags. A well-rested Jacksonville team returning from a bye week will host a very volatile and talented Houston offense. The Texans have lost two of their last three contests, but averaged 28 points per game over that span, which we’ll take for DFS. Jacksonville’s season is toast and is also looking to play spoiler for the remainder of the year with their 2-9 record.
Houston came up short against Tennessee but will have the perfect bounce-back spot in Jacksonville. They’re dead last In passing yards allowed and DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers while also allowing the sixth most rushing yards per game (135.5). CJ Stroud has not surpassed 20 fantasy points since Week 5, making him a risk, but his teammates will be pretty trustworthy against this dumpster-fire defense. Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and even tight end Dalton Schultz (25th in DVOA to opposing tight ends) could eat this week.
Head Coach Doug Pederson is playing his final games in Jacksonville most likely, but will be getting his quarterback Trevor Lawrence back from a shoulder injury this weekend. Lawrence hasn’t played since Week 9 where he’s scored back-to-back 20-plus fantasy point performances, in hopes to pick up where he left off. In the mid $5K range Lawrence is tempting this week along with top target Jags receiver Brian Thomas Jr. who averaged well over 15 FPTS, per game with Trevor under center. Both make great GPP choices along with tight end Evan Engram.
Cash: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins
GPP: Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas, Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, Evan Engram
Titans @ Commanders (-5.5) (O/U 44.5)
The Titans enter Washington coming off an upset win and will look to strike twice against the Commanders. Washington will be ready for blood, as they failed to secure the win against Dallas last week mainly to their special teams and kicker. The total is decent at a near 45 to give us enough faith for fantasy, so let’s dive into this matchup.
Will Levis stepped it up a notch in Week 12’s win in Houston averaging over 75% of his passes to be caught, a stat that could not have been met without the solid running of Tony Pollard. Good things happen when he is on the field for the Titans, as he totaled 129 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown with a 96% snap share. Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine round up the receiver core, who has caught a touchdown in six of his last seven games. The Commanders have stepped it up defensively, so keep the Titans in GPPs.
The Commanders will see a defense that allows the fifth most points per game, a stat that Jayden Daniels is licking his chops for after suffering that heart-wrenching loss last week. However, their backfield will be compromised after Austin Ekeler is hospitalized after last week’s concussion, and Brian Robinson suffers a hamstring injury. Keep an eye on reports up until Sunday, as we may have a nice bargain at running back for DFS with Jeremy McNichols ($5,400 on DK) if Robinson and Ekeler are out. Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Noah Brown also see a bump in projections if both backs end up out.
Cash: Jayden Daniels, Tony Pollard
GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Terry Mclaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Jeremy McNicohls ( if Ekeler and Robinson are out)
Steelers @ Bengals (-3) (U/O 47.5)
Another divisional matchup will happen in the AFC North in Cincinnati between the Bengals and Steelers, and the total is near 50. This is mainly because of Cincinnati’s lack of defense and an enormous amount of offense, a team that has scored at will but continues to lose games. It’s a matchup that will invite most of the field, and rightfully so. The Bengals are not mathematically out of the playoffs yet. It’s go time or go home for the postseason in Cincinnati, but the Steelers are no walk in the park to score on, let’s look into it.
Pittsburgh leads the division by a thread and will look to hold onto it against a Bengals defense that is ranked 28th in the league. Although the Steelers’ ground-and-pound style of offense is led by Russell Wilson who is a shell of his former self, he has not been able to take advantage of great matchups this season. All of his weapons are useable on the slate, especially George Pickens, who will draw coverage from Cam Taylor-Britt. Britt has allowed a hefty 48 catches on an 18% target rate for nearly 700 yards and six touchdowns.
Joe Burrow has been lighting the turf on fire this season and leads the league in passing touchdowns with 27. But the window is beginning to close on the playoffs, and Burrow will see the fourth overall-ranked defense so the pressure will be on. However, I can’t stomach fading this offense at full strength, no matter what defense they go up against. Vegas gave this a 48-point total for a reason, so get them Bengals in your lineups.
Cash: Joe Burrow, George Pickens, Ja’Marr Chase
GPP: Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Pat Friermuth
Cardinals @ Vikings (-3.5) (O/U 45)
The first-place Cardinals fly into Minnesota and will look to redeem themselves after a lackluster performance in Seattle last week. However, the Vikings may have something to prove as well, as they try to keep their head above water in the NFC North. A mid-range total here with only a little over a three-point spread is a good enough reason to gather pieces of this game for DFS,
Only two field goals were put up on the scoreboard for Arizona last weekend, a game that ruined the day for fantasy managers other than Trey McBride’s 12-catch, 133-yard performance. But expect the Cardinals to step it up a notch this weekend against a Minnesota 28th-ranked pass defense in a weatherproof atmosphere game. Although Minnesota is stout against the run (74 yards per game), James Conner is always a factor in the passing game for Arizona along with Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson.
The Vikings will try to keep the ball rolling after their overtime win against Chicago last week and stay within striking distance of the 11-1 Lions. Arizona is mid-tier in overall defense, allowing 121 yards rushing and 218 yards passing per game, but hold their opponents to just over 20 points per game. Justin Jefferson fell short last week, especially due to some bad officiating. Run it back this week with one of the best in the business as head coach Kevin O’Connell will free up Jefferson on routes away from Sean Murphy-Bunting. When he is shadowed, TJ Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Addison make really nice comps for Sam Darnold. A quiet Justin Jefferson makes a nice under-the-radar play for tournaments this week.
Cash: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Trey McBride
GPP: James Conner, Kyler Murray, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Chargers @ Falcons (+2.5) (O/U 48)
Next, LA travels to Atlanta looking to square up after getting their rear ends handed to them by Baltimore on Monday Night. They played efficiently, but it was not enough to take out the Ravens, The Falcons will be very well rested at home after a bye week and will have other plans as they sit on top of the NFC South. LA will be without JK Dobbins for some time, so expect the Chargers to lean more on Justin Herbert, hence the 48 total. Another game on the slate indoors too, gotta love it for DFS.
With Dobbins due to miss a few games, the offense may flip the run-heavy script over to Justin Herbert’s cannon. Backup running back Gus Edwards has been a plodder so far this year while Rookie Kimani Vidal has not yet received enough reps to see much of the field, yet both are cheap for DFS. Justin Herbert along with his complementary receivers will have a nice matchup against the zone-heavy Falcon secondary that ranks 26th in the league in passing with 21 touchdowns through the air. The Chargers offer some decent value as well, with Lad McConkey being the most expensive at only $6,100 on DraftKings.
Atlanta is heavily weaponized, but will they be able to replicate what Baltimore did this past Monday night and put up points on the number-one-ranked defense? Anything is possible, as for DFS the only lock stock Falcon is Bijan Robinson. He’s an elite talent that can go off at any given play on the field. Everyone else is risky for Atlanta, but if I were to roll the dice on somebody it would be Kyle Pitts. Tight end Mark Andrews had a solid game (5REC/44YDS/1TD), Pitts should see the same looks if LA continues to show blitzes on Sunday.
Cash: Bijan Robinson, Justin Herbert
GPP: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Will Dissly, Lad McConkey, Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, Quentin Johnson
Colts @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 42.5)
Here we get a matchup between two teams trying to end their seasons on a high note as the Patriots will host the Colts on a cold and windy day in the NorthEast. Vegas does not see much scoring in this one, but for fantasy, I see some value here at all the positions. Let’s take a gander at who is playing in Foxboro that we can use for DFS.
Indy bleeds yardage up and down the field and they’re not picky on how you decide to move the chains. The Colts allow well over 140 yards per game rushing and average around 233 yards allowed passing, so Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson are nice pieces to use at the mid-range salary. Tight end Hunter Henry is locked on the field averaging over 80% of the snaps, so he will be fine at his price of $4,200 on DraftKings. All are fine for tournaments except Henry, who can be used for cash.
Indy’s prospect Anthony Richardson has been hot and cold all season when he is healthy, and I feel this week the former Gator will feel the chill on the field. Josh Downs his top receiver has already been ruled out, and the Patriots have been pretty consistent in clogging up the middle. My advice in this spot is to pay down for the Patriots’ defense at $2,500 on DraftKings and consider the low price tag of Adonai Mitchell at $3,900 on DK as he will see more reps with the lineup missing Downs and Alec Pierce questionable.
Cash: Hunter Henry, Pats DST
GPP: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Adonai Mitchell
Bucs @ Panthers (+6) (O/U 46)
On to the late afternoon slate, as we’ll get the pleasure of beating up on the Panthers for DFS by rostering some of the Bucs. Carolina playing for pride, has also shown some glimpses of getting better moving the football and getting some stops on defense. But the Bucs are on a mission to return to the playoffs and it will be all business for Baker and company. Let’s sink our teeth into this game.
I hate to sound like a broken record, but yes we like to pick on Carolina in DFS as they remain the overall dead-last ranked defense in the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and the Bucs’ backfield are all trending up this weekend and should see plenty of ownership. All safe for cash and tournaments, in my opinion, fire away at Carolina.
As I mentioned above, the Panthers are slowly turning the corner on offense, so for tournaments, I will be in on a few fellas, especially in tournaments. If you are looking at all the shiny toys in the Ravens/Eagles game coming up, here is your spot to gather some value. Tampa continues to struggle to defend the pass, ranking 27th and 29th in yardage and touchdowns allowed. I will fire one round using Bryce Young under $5K on DraftKings, along with Legette and Adam Thielen. If you’re really in dire straits for extra salary, Tommy Tremble will get the lion’s share of snaps at tight end filling in for the injured Sanders, and he’s only $2,800 on DK.
Cash: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Cade Otton
GPP: Rachaad White, Tre Tucker, Adam Thielen, Bryce Young, Xavier Legette
Rams @ Saints (+2.5) (O/U 49)
Next, we have an under-the-radar possible shoot-out in the Big Easy as the Rams take on the Saints. LA is still recovering from Saquon Barkley’s explosion they witnessed at home while New Orleans should be well rested as they return from a bye week. We’ll see plenty of familiar faces with high price tags in this matchup, and I feel stacking this game and pivoting away from the Eagles and Ravens could get you more bang for your buck this week, here’s why…
Terrible defenses, excellent offenses, and indoors. The big three factors for DFS, so get in on this game to make some green screens. New Orleans ranks 28th against the pass to the heavy passing offense of the Rams, while LA is the third worst rushing defense in the league (see Saquon Barkley) to a Saints team that loves to ground and pound. In a Vegas total of 49 with under a three-point spread, we have to be interested in players. Get in your fill from both sides for cash or GPPs.
Cash: Puka Nacua, Alvin Kamara, Matt Stafford
GPP: Taysom Hill, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling
Eagles @ Ravens (-3) (O/U 50.5)
And without further delay, the Main Event of the slate is here. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles head onto I-95 to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the year. This will be the first time these elite quarterbacks will line up across from each other from the sidelines, and it’s about time. Playoff positioning and bragging rights are on the line, so let’s finish up the breakdown.
Their offense is number two in the league, but the Ravens’ defense has been awful, mainly in pass coverage. It will be all hands on deck to stop the Philadelphia one-two punch of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, especially without veteran OLB Kyle Van Noy who will be out with a hamstring. Eagles OC Kellen Moore will plan to attack this 31st in DVOA Ravens’ secondary through the air since Baltimore only yields 78 yards per game on the ground. Hurts, Brown, Goedert, and DeVonta Smith if healthy will all be cash plays, as Saquon Barkley will move to tournaments only.
Baltimore will have a tough matchup on paper as the Eagles rank third in pass coverage and seventh in rushing defense, but playing inferior opponents in the NFC East may have those stats inflated a bit. The duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has been an anomaly in the league to stop, and until I see someone pump the brakes on this offense, It’s wheels up in Baltimore. The number two-ranked offense in the league has already rushed for well over 2,000 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns. Start your Ravens in DFS for cash or tournaments and sleep like a baby tonight, we’re in for some great football tomorrow afternoon.
Cash: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith (if healthy)
GPP: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 13! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
