Dave Gloeckner 
Another week with high hopes went south as we went just 2-2 overall. But we once again hit on our Prime-Time games with winners on MNF with the Texans and on TNF with the Jameis Winston led Cleveland Browns. The public had a solid week, winning over 50% of the games. But I still see opportunities this week to fade the general consensus, as witnessed with the Browns on Thursday.
As for Survivor, we are still cooking in the main contest as a Detroit victory was sealed by the end of the 1st Q. This week brings a few options to use unpopular teams and we’re going to have to roll the dice as the pool of available teams is getting thinner by the week.
NFL BETS WEEK 12 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 24-27-1)
CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS
We’re going back to the Bears this week as they paid us off last week with a cover against their hated rivals in the Packers. I’m still not a believer of Sam Darnold and think this Bears D can present some real problems for him. The Vikings typically play the Bears well, as they have won five of the last six contests. However, the Bears won the last game they played, stunning the Vikings and creating 4 turnovers along the way. The Vikings come into this game with the 5th most turnovers in the league at 17. On the other side, the Bears have created 17 turnovers and are third best in the league with a +9 differential. I believe in a modified offensive game, the Bears will win the TO battle and come out with a rare victory against their rivals from the north.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7.5 vs DETROIT LIONS
Another thrashing by the Lions as they pummeled the Jaguars 52-6 last week and outgained them by almost 500 yards. The Lions have done this before, and in the following week had tough games. In Week 6 they beat Dallas by 38 only to squeak out a win in Week 7 over Minnesota by 2 points. They are clearly the betting public’s favorite team right now which makes this spot dangerous. Detroit is seeing 82% of the bets on the spread and 72% of the money.
TAMPA BAY BUCANNEERS -5.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are one of the most poorly managed franchisees in all of sports. The fact that they cut QB Daniel Jones is crazy. But then they simply skipped over their #2 QB in Drew Lock and handed the ball to a manufactured gimmick in Tommy Devito is more crazy. I’m banking on the Bucs rest combined with the Giants situation to be keys to fuel Tampa to victory. The addition of Mike Evans is also a key component to this game as the Giants rank 24th against the pass according to DVOA.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS
I’m not sure if the Seahawks are back. But they did display grit and determination last week in their comeback win against the 49ers. The interesting point is this was coming off the bye week where they had some interesting moves, including a sudden retirement of their starting center, Connor Williams, at the young age of 27. What it told me is that rookie HC Mike MacDonald took a global view of this team and instituted major changes. And the biggest move was their philosophy change in the passing game. Seattle led the league in pass ratio prior to the bye but came out of Week 11 with a 58% rate. They were at 66% for the season coming into that game. This is a key in handicapping this game as Arizona allows 127.5 rushing yards per game, 13th highest in the NFL.
BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD
SURVIVOR PICK
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Jayden Daniels hasn’t looked great of late, but he hasn’t played for 10 days so I expect to see the best version of him. And has anyone seen the Cowboys play of late? They can’t stay within 20 points of teams.
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