Joe DiCarlo 
We are back here in Week 12 of the 2024 NFL Season to break down another fine Sunday Main Slate of action. There are only ten games this weekend, but there is still plenty to get through. Congrats to anyone who stacked the Lions in their lineups last weekend. I was all over that matchup in my write-up, along with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. Let’s get back to the grind as there’s still plenty more money to make in DFS.
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 11/24/24
Chiefs @ Panthers (+10.5) (O/U 41.5)
Kansas City hits the road again after taking one on the chin in Buffalo ending their undefeated season. They’ll hit the turf in Carolina to face a Panthers team fresh off a bye, sitting as huge underdogs at home. They’ll be hosting one of the top defenses in the league of Kansas City, hopefully, the Panthers took plenty of practice reps over their break.
Last week’s primetime event loss in Buffalo could still be burning inside of Kansas City, as they watched Josh Allen run the ball for thirty yards into the endzone to seal their fate. The Panthers may end up being a punching bag for Pat Mahomes and company to let out some frustration, as the matchup is salivating. The Panthers are currently ranked dead last in points allowed and rushing defense. Mahomes and his passing targets will be a full go, but we must wait and see if Isiah Pacheco will return from IR or if Kareem Hunt will get another full workload at running back.
The Panthers looked awesome two weeks ago in Germany, pulling off the win against the Giants. But they may be heading into a brick wall come Sunday against the Steve Spagnuolo Chiefs defense. Kansas City allows only 19 points per game, with the number-one-ranked run defense that could keep Chuba Hubbard in a vise (85 YPG allowed). There’s no time to get cute this week by taking on the Panthers in your DFS lineups.
Cash: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce
GPP: DeAndre Hopkins, KareemHunt/Isiah Pacheco (watch for injury reports)
Update: Isiah Pacheco is OUT…Kareem Hunt will get the lion share of touches
Bucs @ Giants (+5) (O/U 42)
Big Blue is back home from Germany and a bye to host Tampa Bay, another team that should be rested from a week off. Both clubs will look to get right and back in the win column after suffering some tough losses. New York is clearly out of the playoff race while Tampa is desperately trying to stay in the hunt, It is a game that holds water on both sides, and here’s why.
Head coach Brian Dabol has benched Daniel Jones this week and named Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito as the starter, not Drew Lock. The move raised a lot of eyebrows in the Tri-State Area as Lock is the clear front-runner for the job. Is it a publicity stunt, or a way to cheat Lock out of incentives? Either way, Dabol is coaching to keep his job so it’s Cutlets’ time to shine. The Bucs offer a great way for DeVito to start his 2024 season, as they allow the third-most passing yards and touchdowns in the league. DeVito, Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tyrone Tracy are all GPP-worthy this weekend.
The Bucs sit in the cat-bird seat finally after four straight tough matchups that cost them the lead in the division. New York ranks fourth in pass defense, but I would not be afraid of that stat since opposing teams have averaged close to 150 yards per game on the ground. Salaries have dropped on DraftKings for Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, so pick your poison and take advantage of the discount at running back. The backbone of the passing volume will flow through Cade Otton, who has dominated the tight end position with double-digit targets in four of his last five games, 30 catches, and three scores. And finally, if you like to follow revenge narratives as I do, Sterling Shepard returns to MetLife Stadium for the first time. If Mike Evans takes another week off to heal, Shepard could also see a number of extra passes from Mayfield.
Cash: Cade Otton, Malik Nabers
GPP: Tyrone Tracy, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans (if healthy), Baker Mayfield, Tommy DeVito, Wan’Dale Robinson, Bucs DST
Update: Daniel Jones was released by the Giants
Lions @ Colts (+7.5) (O/U 50.5)
Detroit has been a runaway freight train, steamrolling its competition, and will look to keep its momentum going on the road in Indianapolis. Detroit showed no mercy to Jacksonville, holding them to only six points while they threw up 52. But the Colts may have some momentum coming into this game after beating the Jets on the road with the reinstated Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
Arguably one of the league’s top offenses, The Lions should have no problem scoring again this weekend. They’re currently ranked number two in rushing touchdowns and number four in passing, so if you can afford their salaries sprinkle some in your DFS lineups in cash or GPPs. Jared Goff is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 412 yards and four touchdowns, and is worthy of another start against a Colts defense that allows the sixth-most passing yards in the league.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson showed us some flashes of brilliance on the field against the Jets last week. He completed 67% of his passes, throwing for one touchdown and rushing for two. But he’ll be a risky play for DFS once again facing a Detroit team that has shut down opposing offenses by running up the score and forcing their opponents to throw into a secondary that leads the league in interceptions with 14. They’ve also only allowed seven passing scores all year, so Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Alec Pierce should remain in tournaments with Richardson.
Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery
GPP: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Anthony Richardson, Sam LaPorta (if healthy), Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathon Taylor
Patriots @ Dolphins (-7) (U/O 46)
The Dolphins racked up their second win in a row and will host their division rival New England Patriots in sunny Miami, Florida. The Patriots continue to play through some growing pains, suffering their eighth loss of the year to the Rams. This game offers some opportunity for value at every position with a decent total in a warm weather environment. Let’s check it out.
New England’s secondary has been target practice for quarterbacks all year, allowing 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions, with four to Matt Stafford last weekend. Add the fact they allow close to 130 yards per game to running backs and you have a great matchup for the Fins at home. Tight end Jonnu Smith has emerged as a reliable passing commodity for Tua, catching six for 101 yards and two touchdowns against Vegas. He’s another great start at $4,100 on DraftKings this week.
It was a steep hill to climb to keep up with Matt Stafford for Drake Maye last week, and it may be a repeat this week against Miami. Rhamondre Stevenson is still a solid DFS running back with 20 carries per week, but Maye’s receiver core should also be considered for a few punt options on the slate. DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, and Kayshon Boutte are all worth a shot at their low prices connected to Drake Maye, who has had over 40 passing attempts in two of his last three games.
Cash: De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith
GPP: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte
Vikings @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 39.5)
The 8-2 Vikings, winners of three straight games will fly into the windy city of Chicago to battle the Bears. Chicago is up to their old tricks, losers of four straight games after starting out the year at 4-2. They’ll again try to pick up the pieces at home against division rival Minnesota, but it will not be an easy task that’s for sure. It’s a total of under forty featuring two solid defenses, a stat that we frown upon for DFS.
Chicago has been a burden on opposing quarterback play this season, tying for first defensively in touchdown passes allowed at seven thanks to guys like Kevin Byard and Tyrique Stevenson roaming around the secondary. But they’ve shown some weakness in the trenches as they allow an average of 130 yards rushing per game. This is great news for Aaron Jones, who has been quiet lately and is due a decent matchup. Start him up in GPPs along with Justin Jefferson, whose talent is un fadeable.
It’s been a murky month of football for Chicago, and it doesn’t seem the sun will be coming out anytime soon this weekend. Minnesota is ranked number one defensively in points allowed and rushing yards, holding backs to a measly 3.6 yards per carry. The Vikes also lead the league in picks with 16 on the season, so it’s best to stay away from any part of the Caleb Williams slumping Bears. The Minnesota defense may be the better choice in this matchup.
Cash: Justin Jefferson
GPP: Aaron Jones, Vikings DST
Titans @ Texans (-8) (O/U 42)
Houston will welcome the Titans as eight-point favorites in a low total contest and aim to keep themselves on top of their division. Tennessee remains at the bottom of the AFC South and continues to look forward to a high draft position for next season. Both teams are very familiar with each other in this divisional match.
The Texans manhandled the Cowboys in front of their own crowd on Monday Night, exposing their weakness at quarterback. Expect the same dosage of pressure on the inexperienced Will Levis. He’ll need to get the ball out quickly to Calvin Ridley, who leads the league in deep targets (21) and has a great matchup across from Derek Stingley who allows close to 12 yards per reception. Ridley is affordable on DraftKings ($5,700) and a sneaky DFS receiver if he plays (illness). Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are other cheap Titans to draft as the team may be trailing in the second half.
The Texans have been riding the hot hand to victories, and that hand is Joe Mixon. The seventh-year back out of Oklahoma is second in the league in touchdowns with 11 and leads the league in yards per reception at running back and red zone carries. If you can afford him, he will get you value as he also leads the league in fantasy points per game (22.6). The Texans’ other elite talent is Nico Collins. He was quiet in his return from IR in Dallas, but expect him to get ramped up this week in a cupcake matchup against a Titans’ secondary that will be stacking the box to stop Mixon.
Cash: Joe Mixon
GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Texans DST, Tony Pollard
Update: Tyjae Spears is out, Pollard will get all the work
Cowboys @ Commanders (-10.5) (O/U 45.5)
Dallas will try to pick up the pieces after losing Monday Night and hit the road to face division rival Washington. The Cowboys gave it their all against Houston at home, but it wasn’t enough to stop the Texans and Joe Mixon. Meanwhile, the Commanders are in a great spot to gain some ground with the first-place Eagles by securing a win at home as 10.5-point favorites.
Cooper Rush will once again lead the Cowboys onto NorthWest Stadium in DC, but he’ll face a much stingier passing defense developed by head coach Dan Quinn, who was the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator last season. Rush threw it 55 times Monday Night with only one touchdown and one pick, but this offense as a whole is in shambles. The Commanders’ defense is the only trustworthy DFS move when Dallas has the ball as of now. Keep a close eye on tight end Jake Ferguson’s status. If he doesn’t clear protocols, backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker is a clear value play this week. He saw ten targets filling in for Ferguson, catching six of them for 56 yards, making him a lock for cash/GPP formats.
The Dallas defense has failed the team since Week One. They’ve fallen dead last in points allowed, mainly because they have been unable to stop the run all season. They’ve ranked last in touchdowns and yards allowed to opposing running backs. Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler should stride with ease this week as they utilize their stout offensive line. Their large chunks of yardage should also open up passing lanes for Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Noah Brown for Jayden Daniels. It’s wheels up for any Commanders in your lineups on Sunday.
Cash: Brian Robinson, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Luke Schoonmaker (if Ferguson is out)
GPP: Austin Ekeler, Noah Brown, Washington DST
Update: Ferguson is out…take the free space at tight end with Schoonmaker
Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5) (O/U 41)
The bucking Broncos will gallop into Vegas to kick off the late afternoon slate and look to take advantage of a 29th-ranked Raiders’ defense. Vegas, with a record of 2-8, is well on its way to the top of the draft board in 2025. It’s a decent spread with a total that is a little underwhelming, but a couple of players in this game will be essential this week for DFS.
Denver’s 2024 number-one pick is panning out to become rookie of the year with his play and leadership this season. Sitting with a respectable 6-5 record, Nix has averaged an amazing 70% on completions and is not gun-shy at all, leading the league in deep ball attempts with 48. He’s also fifth in the league in carries and rushing touchdowns. With only 20 quarterbacks to roll with on the slate this week, he makes my top three, Get Nix in nude in your lineups, or if you are feeling frisky stack him with any running back or wide receiver(s) in GPPs only.
With all the drama this year for Vegas, there has been one glimmer of light, and his name is Brock Bowers. The rookie is matchup and quarterback-proof. In his ten professional games, he’s averaged over 10 yards per catch, saw 89 targets, and caught 70 for 706 yards. Other than the Broncos’ defense, which is priced up, Bowers is the only safe play in Vegas for DFS, although pay close attention to the Raiders’ running back room on the injury reports. If Alexander Mattison and Zamir White sit out, Ameer Abdullah at $4,300 on DraftKings will be a super-saver at running back on the slate.
Cash: Bo Nix, Brock Bowers
GPP: Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST, Audric Estime`, Ameer Abdullah (if Mattison and White are out)
Update: Mattison and White are doubtful… Ameer Abdullah and Derek Laube are more valuable at running back
Niners @ Packers (-2.5) (O/U 48)
The Niners hit the road and will try to bounce back from a devastating loss by Seattle. The Packers will welcome them to Lambeau Field in hopes of keeping their win streak alive and in contention for the NFC North title. Temperatures are beginning to drop in Wisconsin, but not enough to affect the sweet total of 48, let’s see who’s available for DFS.
Brock Purdy has been ranked QB 6 coming into this weekend, but he is also pretty banged up with a shoulder injury. Head coach Kyle Shannahan is “hopeful” that he will play, so pay close attention to his status on Sunday. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings’ fate will all rest in the hands of the astronaut Josh Dobbs if Purdy is not available this week, so they will all be risky players if that plays out.
The Packers escaped Soldier Field by the skin of their helmets with a win, now back at home they’ll have some time to regroup. Jordan Love reclaimed his value at 20-plus fantasy points, as well as Josh Jacobs with 23 FPTS. against Chicago. Both are the only safe and predictable plays once again this week, as the receiving core remains a crap shoot on who will feast week in and out for touchdowns and volume. The Niners have the firepower to put up a fight, so Love should be on his toes to answer back.
Cash: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, George Kittle
GPP: Jordan Love, Brock Purdy (if healthy), Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft
Update: Brock Purdy is Out…Brandon Allen or Packers DST, just go with your gut
Cardinals @ Seahawks (-1) (O/U 47.5)
We have an NFC West matchup to wrap up the slate, and it’s an enticing 47.5 total as the Cardinals head into Seattle for a potential rain game. There’s some potential for both teams to go score for score given the one-point spread and familiarity between them. But let’s keep an eye on the forecast, if it downpours we may need to steer elsewhere on the slate.
Rain or shine, the matchup is sweet for Kyler Murray and James Conner’s footwork. Murray snuck in two touchdowns against the Jets, and Conner has not scored less than 14 FPTS in nearly six weeks. Seattle continues to struggle to defend the run, as they’ve allowed close to 140 yards per game. The dual-threat will open lanes for Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson if the weather cooperates.
The Seahawks are flying high after their upset win in the Bay Area against the Forty Niners. All thanks to Geno Smith’s rushing touchdown in the final minute, but he’ll need some more magic against the first-place Cardinals. Smith’s accuracy of 74% has been crucial, so long as it stays weather-friendly Jaxson Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf will again be his top targets. DK’s mid-$6K range on DraftKings is very tasty, especially against an Arizona defense that will send Sean Murphy-Bunting on him (8.7 Yards per Target allowed). Kenneth Walker as usual gets respect for DFS as he can explode in any given game script, and at $7K on DraftKings, he could be very under-owned because of the tremendous value at the position this week.
Cash: Kyler Murray, James Conner, DK Metcalf
GPP: Geno Smith, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr,
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 12! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
