Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers

Week 11 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Bengals take on the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Running Back

• The Chargers have given up 733 rushing yards (7th Fewest in NFL)
• They have given up 262 receiving yards to running backs (10th Fewest)
• Giving up 17.6 DK to running backs (2nd Fewest)

 With Zack Moss being put on IR early last week, Chase Brown took firm control of the running back room in Cincinnati and had all 13 carries on Thursday Night against Baltimore. Even before Moss was injured Brown was already taking over most of the work as he had 23 more carries in the four weeks leading to the injury.

Despite the Bengals going out to grab Khalil Herbert from the Bears, he failed to record a carry and was put in the dog house after a fumble. While he should see some actual carries on Sunday with an extra 10 days under his belt, he shouldn’t take too much of Brown’s workload. 

With how good the Chargers have been against running backs I will be light on Brown and have almost no Herbert. I would rather use the salary on both sites on the Bengals receiving game.

Tier 1: Chase Brown

Fade/Punt: Khalil Herbert

Wide Receiver

• The Chargers have allowed 1152 yards to opposing wide receivers (6th Fewest).
• They are giving up 28.1 DK (7th Fewest).

Ja’Marr Chase is a lock on this slate. He is the best wide receiver on the field on Sunday and is coming off of a greatperformance where he had 264 yards and three touchdowns. He should be almost 100% owned but I would rather use him and get different elsewhere than fade him and risk another career performance.

Tee Higgins is the clear number two guy in Cincinnati. Higgins is second in targets with 45 even though he has only had targets in five games this season. Higgins gets a favorable matchup against Tarheeb Still who has given up the most FPRR (.25) and YPRR (.96) as well as the highest target percent per route ran (16.7%). With his matchup and price being almost 4K less than Chase on DK, he is a very tempting pick and someone I will have a good amount of. 

The value wide receivers on the Bengals are Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton. I like both as punt plays, but I wouldn’t have too much of either as in games with Higgins active they average a combined 2.8 targets and have only been able to combine for one score. I would give Burton a slight nod based on being a high draft pick but there isn’t much between them.

Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase

Tier 2: Tee Higgins

Punts/Fades: Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton

Tight End

• The Chargers have given 469 receiving yards to tight ends (16th Most).
• They are giving up 11.3 DK (14th Most).

I like the Bengals tight ends this week for the showdown. The top tight end for them is Mike Gesicki who leads all of Cincinnati’s tight ends in yards (383), receptions (34), and touchdowns (2). Gesicki has played 51.8% of the Bengals snaps the past three games and with his $6200 price on DraftKings, he is one of my favorite plays this week.

Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson should both see work during the game as both have played over 25% of the Bengal’s snaps the previous two games. Of the two I would lean toward Hudson as he has seen 10 targets in those two weeks while Sample has only seen four which all came in Week 9. 

Tier 1: Mike Gesicki

Punt/Fade: Drew Sample, Tanner Hudson 

Los Angeles Chargers

Running Back

• Cincinnati is giving up 20.9 DK per game (9th Fewest).
• They have allowed 910 rushing yards (16th Fewest).
• They have allowed 195 receiving yards (Fewest).

Gus Edwards returned to the lineup after not playing a snap since Week 4, but he was still out-snapped by JK Dobbins who took full control of the backfield in Edwards’s absence. A healthy Edwards will take some snaps away from Dobbins, but I don’t expect Dobbins to lose the starting role so he is my main Charger running back for Showdown. The Bengals have been good against running backs in fantasy because they don’t allow them to have success in the passing game, ranking top 10 in receptions, yards, and touchdowns against. With Dobbins not showing much use in the passing game, I don’t think that will affect him. But just like the Bengals run game, I would rather focus on the Chargers passing game.

Tier 1: JK Dobbins

Tier 2: Gus Edwards

Wide Receiver

• The Bengals have given up 1505 receiving yards to wide receivers (9th Most).
• They are giving up 34.5 DK to receivers (13th Most).

If we are going to talk about Chargers wide receivers there is only one lad to start with and that is Ladd McConkey.McConkey is leading the Chargers in targets (54), receptions (37), yards (492), and YPRR (2.04). He doesn’t get the best matchup having to face Mike Hilton for the majority of the game. Hilton is holding opposing receivers to .94 YPRR. With his price and the matchup, I will have slightly less McConkey than his teammate Quentin Johnston.

Johnston is finally looking like the TCU version of him that made him a high-draft pick. In the past two games, he has six receptions on seven targets for 142 yards and two scores. He gets a great matchup against Cam Taylor-Britt who is near the top of FPRR allowed by a CB. With the difficult matchup for McConkey, I can see Herbert looking a bit more at Johnston than he has coming into the game. 

Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Quetin Johnston

Tier 2: Joshua Palmer

Punt: Jalen Reagor, DJ Chark

Tight End

• The Bengals have given up 598 receiving yards to tight ends (6th Most).
• They are allowing 15.4 DK per game (5th Most).

Will Dissly has been the main tight end threat for the Chargers leading the team in receptions (33) and yards (272). He is priced at $5200 on DraftKings which makes him a solid mid-range play. With the Bengals struggling to contain tight ends, I will have a good amount of Dissly. He should play the majority of snaps as he has played over 50% of snaps every game since the bye week. 

Hayden Hurst and Eric Tomlinson should be the other two tight ends that will see some snaps during the game. But even with their price, they are nothing more than punts in larger fields. Since the bye week these two have only combined for five targets which is 27 less than Dissly in that span. I would say keep them out of your main lineup.

Tier 1: Will Dissly

Punt/Fade: Hayden Hurst, Eric Tomlinson

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Jamaar Chase
• Joe Burrow
• JK Dobbins
• Justin Herbert
• Tee Higgins
• Chase Brown
• Mike Gesicki
• Ladd McConkey
• Quentin Johnston
• Will Dissly
• Evan McPherson
• Cameron Dicker

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Joshua Palmer
• Chargers D/ST
• Bengals D/ST
• Tanner Hudson
• Gus Edwards
• Jermaine Burton
• Andrei Iosivas
• Drew Sample
• Khalil Herbert
• Hayden Hurst
• Eric Tomlinson

Favorite prop for the game: Tee Higgins Over Receiving Yards 56.5 (-115)