Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Week 11 of the NFL season starts with the Commanders traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Washington Commanders

Running Back

• PHI allows 16.8 fantasy points per game to the RB (second lowest)
• They have allowed only 2 rushing TDs

Brian Robinson is back which makes Austin Ekeler overpriced on both sites (one would think). In games Robinson is healthy he has gotten three times the snaps as Ekeler. Perhaps Ekeler carved himself out a larger role with his efficiency lately, but that is going to be hard to trust with my money. With the spend-ups we have today, and how good PHI is at stopping the run, I am ok going light on the WAS RBs. 

• Tier 2: Brian Robinson
• Tier 3: Austin Ekeler
• Punt: Jeremy McNichols (likely only gets blowout run)

Wide Receiver

• The Eagles give up 30.5 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have allowed 8 receiving TDs to receivers

I have seen people saying the Eagles’ secondary is the toughest matchup in football today. Not sure how you get to that conclusion. Sure, on paper they have certainly been better lately but they have recently played the Browns, Giants, Jacksonville without Kirk and Thomas, and Dallas without Dak Prescott. When they ran into the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase had nine receptions.

Terry McLaurin has a history of dominating the Eagles and is in a very good, not great, spot despite the improvements the Eagles have appeared to make. He leads the Commanders in YPRR and Air Yards. There is not a single week, after the second game of the season, where you wouldn’t have needed him on a showdown slate. He should be seeing a significant amount of Darius Slay on the left side of the field, but with his volume and talent, I say load him up. 

Noah Brown will run the second-most routes for the Commanders. A salary of $6,200 for him is high, but he will technically have the best primary matchup for any receiver on the Commanders for the majority of his routes against Quinyon Mitchell. Mitchell is not bad by any means, just a little worse as far as YPRC goes than the other corners. 

Luke McCaffrey should be popular as he has a famous last name and is only $1,200. I get it but I am more interested in a home run hitter like Olamide Zaccheaus. He will run fewer routes than McCaffrey but when he is on the field he actually has a higher target % than Terry McLaurin. We have some people talking about the Jahan Dotson revenge game (not a thing) but no one is talking about the Olamide Zaccheaus revenge game. 

• Tier 1: Terry McLaurin
• Tier 2: Noah Brown
• Tier 3: Olamide Zaccheaus, Luke McCaffrey 

Punt: Dynami Brown (wouldn’t remove him from the player pool, would not play with Zaccheaus)

Tight End

• PHI gives up 7.8 fantasy points per game to the position (4^th lowest)
• They have yet to allow a receiving TD

Zach Ertz will play about 77% of snaps. He has been better than the pundits expected this season, however it is a very tough matchup against the team that drafted him. I do not mind him as the last guy in, due to his salary ($5,600) but he is not a priority. 

The Commanders have used a lot of two tight-end formations this season yet it hasn’t necessarily helped John Bates (56% of snaps last week) or Ben Sinnott (28% of snaps last week) at a consistent rate.  Both are priced at $600 or less so using them to jam studs does make some sense in the Milly maker. They are deep punts that you stay away from in your main lineups. 

• Tier 2: Zach Ertz
• Punts: John Bates, Ben Sinnott

Philadelphia Eagles

Running Back

• WAS allows 22.4 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have allowed 9 rushing TDs

You are putting Jalen Hurts or Saqoun Barkley, or both, in every lineup you make. 

Kenny Gainwell is too cheap for the role he plays in this offense. He is only $3,200 and will be on the field for about 32% of snaps. He should touch the ball at least 5 times while being involved in the passing game to a small extent. He is likely the best salary saver, that isn’t a pure punt, on the slate.

Will Shipley would get the blowout run, not Gainwell for what it’s worth. 

• Tier 1: Saquon Barkley
• Tier 2: Kenneth Gainwell
• Punt: Will Shipley (would only get blowout run, fadeable) 

Wide Receiver

• WAS gives up 34 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have allowed 12 receiving TDs to the position  

Marshon Lattimore will not be active for the Commanders. This secondary has been better lately yet they are still very attackable, especially for a team as talented as the Eagles in the pass game. 

If you are the Eagles you want to attack Benjamin St-Juste. He plays more on the right side of the field (59%) compared to the left (36.6%).  A.J. Brown will be seeing him the most as he runs the majority of his routes (41.4%) on the right side of the field. Jahan Dotson plays the outside the second most on the team, however, the targets are just not there. I do not mind him at all in large field tournaments as it only takes one big play to hit the nuts on an optimal. Dotson, although seldom targeted, should continue playing just under 50% of snaps, which makes him the receiver with the third most routes run on the Eagles. 

DeVonta Smith runs primarily out of the slot (53%) but also finds his way on the outside the other 47% of routes he runs. He is a clear-cut second option behind A.J. Brown tonight. Both are in good spots and if I couldn’t fit Brown, I would do everything possible to get Smith. When both receivers are active, there has only been one game this season where one didn’t find the endzone (Week 10). 

• Tier 1: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith
• Tier 2: Jahan Dotson
• Tier 3: Johnny Wilson 

Punt: Ainias Smith: He has been getting a look lately

Tight End

• WAS allows 10.7 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have allowed 5 receiving TDs (tied for 3^rd most in the NFL)

As of this writing, the Eagles have only two tight ends on their roster, yet they could call up someone else later in the afternoon. 

Dallas Goedert at $6,600 makes him the best mid-range salary play on the slate.

He will outsnap Grant Calcaterra, but that doesn’t mean Calcaterra is going away. In games with Goedert healthy Cal has been finding himself on the field up to 43% of the time. That is plenty at only $1,000 on DraftKings on a showdown slate. I am forcing in at least one of the three pass catchers for Hurts which includes A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert. 

• Tier 1: Dallas Goedert
• Tier 2: Grant Calcaterra
• Punt: Whoever they call up

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Jalen Hurts
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Saquon Barkley 
• FanDuel MVP Tier3: Jayden Daniels

I prefer using the receivers on DraftKings.  

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Jalen Hurts, Saqoun Barkley, A.J. Brown
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jayden Daniels
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Terry McLaurin, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert 

Best Value: Kenneth Gainwell, Olamide Zaccheaus, Grant Calcaterra, Luke McCaffrey 

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• A.J. Brown
• Jayden Daniels
• Terry McLaurin
• DeVonta Smith
• Dallas Goedert
• Brian Robinson
• Jake Elliot
• Noah Brown
• Zane Gonzalez
• Kenneth Gainwell
• Austin Ekeler (priced too high)
• Jahan Dotson
• Olamide Zaccheaus
• Luke McCaffrey
• Grant Calcaterra
• Eagles D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• John Bates
• Commander D (probably fade)
• Johnny Wilson
• Ainias Smith 
• Ben Sinnott
• Jeremy McNichols 

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Will Shipley
• Whoever the Eagles call up for TE3

Best Rules for the slate:

• I don’t fade Jalen Hurts on showdowns
  • You only need to pair him with one pass catcher (that does not mean limit to one)
  • If you fade Hurts, you must play Barkley.
• Play at least one, Brown, Smith, Goedert, in that order. 
  • Add Barkley if you prefer, I just want at least one designated pass catcher for Hurts
  • I will do some Eagles onslaught lineups that include Hurts with two of the four mentioned above
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense 
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 WAS RB, per lineup
  • I don’t mind both Barkley and Gainwell in a lineup but would fade Hurts in this scenario
• Don’t play more than 1 TE, per team, per lineup 
• Don’t play more than 1, McCaffrey, Zaccheaus, Brown
• Don’t play more than 1, Wilson, A. Smith, Dotson