Dave Gloeckner 
Week 3 was another slow week for us. Overall, we were 2-2 but fell trap to two AFC South teams that looked better than they actually are. However, the savvy pick of the Panthers helped close out that day and give us some momentum going into Week 4. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.
As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.
NFL BETS WEEK 3 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 6-6)
ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Jayden Daniels showed up and showed out on MNF this week against the Bengals. The 2nd pick in the draft set a rookie record for completion percentage by going 21 of 23 in the air. And he parlayed that with 39 rushing yards including a TD. The most impressive part is they scored on all 6 possessions outside of kneeling on the ball. Take that all the way back to Week 1, and they’ve scored on 14 straight possessions and haven’t punted since early in the 4th quarter against TB. The Commanders look like they have a special talent at QB and are going to be a force to be reckoned with this season.
But the issue they’re facing today is travel fatigue and betting over reaction. The Commanders have played in Florida, Maryland, Ohio and now Arizona. They’re traveling 5 hours in the air on a short week after playing on MNF. While it’s a small sample size, the two winners on Monday Football this season, are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS the following week. As for the public, they are running to the window to back Daniels and the Commanders. The issue they’re not factoring in is that the Washington Defense is last in the NFL in yards allowed and 2nd last in points allowed. DVOA ranks the Commanders as the worst defense in the league overall and against the pass. That’s not good news as the Cardinals have a strong offense that is averaging 27 ppg and 8th overall in offensive DVOA.
GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Pack are back! And they’re doing it with their backup QB in Malik Willis. The former 1st round pick is 2-0 and has a QBR of 89.5 in relief of Jordan Love. The latter has been practicing all week and is a game time decision for today’s game. But while Willis has been solid, it has been Green Bay’s running game that has propelled them to two straight wins. The Packers lead the NFL in rushing yards with 204 yards/game on the ground. Overall, they boast the 5th best offensive attack.
The Vikings have been the most impressive team in this young NFL season. With their own backup paving the way, Minnesota is 3-0 with wins against solid teams like San Francisco and Houston. Their defense has been the story ranking #1 in DVOA and creating 6 turnovers in three weeks. But they are just 14th in yards allowed as teams have been able to move the ball against them, particularly in the air.
The books are taking in 83% of the tickets on Minnesota but just 40% of the money. The sharps are on Green Bay and likely for good reason as they’ve started to play good defense of their own, as they lead the league with 7 interceptions.
BUFFALO BILLS +2.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS
We have a great game for SNF tonight as the Bills travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in the Charm City. The Bills have been impressive this season sprinting out to a 3-0 record and leading the league in point differential with a +64 number. They’ve dominated the last two opponents in the Dolphins and Jaguars, winning each by a minimum of 21 points.
The Ravens got a much needed win last week in Dallas. They looked like a dominant team once again but had to hold on late as they allowed Dallas to outscore them 19-0 in the 4th quarter. And that gave me concerns once again with Baltimore as their pass defense was a sieve. On the season, they rank 32nd in pass D and are allowing almost 300 yards/game in the air.
The Ravens have looked sloppy in trying to close out games and they now face the best QB in the NFL right now. I’m seeing a revelation with Josh Allen’s game as he’s yet to turn the ball over in 3 weeks (first time he’s done that in his career). So I’m riding the team that has been showing their teeth and winning in every way possible versus a Ravens team that has been struggling to do the same.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +2.5 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Write up to be posted by 10am.
SURVIVOR PICK
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
The Patriots offensive line is a mess, and the 49ers will wreak havoc in the backfield creating negative plays and turnovers.
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