Dave Gloeckner 
Week 3 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Jaguars and Bills in the early game and the Commanders at the Bengals slated for the normal MNF time slot.
Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
QUARTERBACK
We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two of them have premier matchups while the other two will need to find ways to score against quality pass defenses. Let’s dig in and see which QB’s make the most sense for our builds.
JOSH ALLEN ($7800 DK) – The Bills star has had two distinctly different performances in 2024. In week 1, his team went down early to Arizona and Allen was forced to wear a cape and win the game for Buffalo. By doing so, he ended up as the highest scoring QB with 31.2 fantasy points. In Week 2, his running game and defense dominated, and Allen was not asked to do much. That resulted in a 9.8 fantasy point outing good for 28th in the league. Overall, he’s 3rd in points per game at 20.5 and can break the slate on any given week regardless of matchup.
There are some concerns with Allen’s receiving corps as Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid have combined for just 9 catches and 95 yards in two games. He needs more out of those two in order to break free in the passing totals. But that should improve this week as Jacksonville ranks 20th in passing DVOA and has allowed the 8th most fantasy points/game to WR’s. They could be without nickel corner Darnell Savage Jr. tonight as well as he’s labeled as questionable.
Allen’s hand looks to be a non-factor. But if it puts him in more running situations, that would be good news for fantasy owners. While a small sample size, the Jags have allowed 31 yards rushing and 1 TD to opposing QB’s. And those were to signal callers who typically don’t run in DeShaun Watson and Tua Tagovailoa. Passing or running, I expect a big game from Allen and reason to back him as the top QB choice on the board.
TREVOR LAWRENCE ($5700 DK) – I’m not prepared to attack a good Bills pass defense with a QB that has a 51% completion rate and is averaging just 191 yards/game passing this season. TLaw has not been able to find rhythm and some of that is due to a bad offensive line (7 sacks allowed in 2 games). According to PFF the Jags have the 9th worst pass blocking unit this season. Which isn’t great news as the Bills have the 5th best pass rush, racking up six sacks of their own.
JAYDEN DANIELS ($6000 DK) – There are only two QB’s with a better fantasy point per game average better than Josh Allen. And one of those is tonight’s starting QB for the Commanders, Jayden Daniels. What is eye opening with that statement is that he’s done it with 0 passing TD’s this season. That’s because most of his damage has been done on the ground as he’s gained 132 yards and scored 2 TD’s rushing in the first two games of this season. Projecting how teams fare against rushing QB’s can be difficult, but we do know the Bengals are bleeding yards to runners. In fact, the two QB’s they’ve faced have each gone over 29 yards rushing and are averaging 5.5 yards/carry.
The concern for me tonight is seeing how Daniels will get his yards in the air. Last week the Commanders settled for 7 field goals and were 0 for 6 in the redzone. In week 1 against Tampa, Daniels managed to rack up points in the 2nd half but the game was already out of hand. But I’m using the college approach here and put Daniels as my QB2 tonight based on his versatility and dedicated focus on running. He will get 10+ carries and over 50 yards which offsets the potential lack of passing TD’s.
JOE BURROW ($6300 DK) – This is a great price for Burrow as he takes on the 32nd ranked pass defense in the NFL. We anticipate plenty of big plays in the Bengals passing game. And while I’ll gladly have shares of Burrow, the lack of a running game in Cincy limits his potential to put up huge numbers. While Washington has struggled in coverage and pass rush, they’re also bad at stopping the run. So I do expect Cincy to focus on getting that part right against a team they can exploit. Burrow becomes by QB3 based on the potential game script at hand.
Tier 1: Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels
Tier 2: Joe Burrow
RUNNING BACK
The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups and volume with our back usage.
TRAVIS ETIENNE JR ($7100 DK) – The Bills have allowed an average of 20.5 points to fantasy RB’s this season. That’s 7th most in the NFL. The big issue has been their inability to stop the RB’s in the passing game as opponent running backs have 15 catches in 2 games. Etienne is a threat as a receiver, catching 58 balls for 476 yards last season. Because I’m off Lawrence, I will be getting shares of the Jags running game tonight. It looks like Tank Bigsby may miss another game, leading to another game of 70% or more snaps for Etienne (72% in Week 2 w/o Bigsby).
JAMES COOK ($6800 DK) – Cook had a career game in Week 2, scoring three TD’s for Buffalo. But that came on just 12 touches as the Bills had a comfortable lead and were able to share duties. But he’s no doubt the premiere rusher in Buffalo and will be the focal point of their run game. The Jags fared well against the Dolphins in week 1, allowing just 3.2 yards/carry. That carried over to Week 2 as well, limiting the Browns to 4.3 yards/carry. For me, Cook is in play in my lineups with Daniels as QB. I’ll pair him up with Allen in a very small percentage of my lineups due to goal line carry concerns.
BRIAN ROBINSON ($5900 DK) – One of my favorite spots of the night at RB as Robinson is averaging 17.8 fantasy points over the first two games of the season. The Bengals allowed 170 yards rushing to the Patriots in Week 1 and 149 yards to the Chiefs in Week 2. Both primary RB’s went for 90+ rushing yards and at least 3 receptions. Because of the small slate, I feel comfortable pairing Robinson with Daniels when needed.
ZACK MOSS ($5600 DK) – The Bengals running game hasn’t been pretty. But the Commanders, although terrible at the pass, have allowed points to RB’s this season. So far, backs have gone for 190 yards rushing and 31 fantasy points in two games against the Commanders. At some point, the Bengals have to become two-dimensional and I think they’ll try to flex that tonight.
AUSTIN EKELER/CHASE BROWN/D’ERNEST JOHNSON – All backup RB’s with little value based on prices to the starting RB’s and low volume of snaps.
Tier 1: TRAVIS ETIENNE JR, BRIAN ROBINSON
Tier 2: JAMES COOK, ZACK MOSS
Wide Receiver
JA’MARR CHASE ($7500 DK) & TEE HIGGINS ($5900 DK) – Chase is clearly the #1 option available tonight and the only real receiver that can break the slate. He also gets the dream matchup of the Commanders pass D. The two #1 WR’s they faced, Mike Evans and Malik Nabers, have averaged 25.9 fantasy points. And the Commanders as a whole unit have allowed 6 receiving TD’s in two games. Higgins is in play too in case Washington looks to double Chase.
ANDREI IOSIVAS ($4300 DK) – Iosavis will revert back to a 3rd pass catcher with the return of Tee Higgins. But he did play 49 snaps against the Chiefs which was 14 higher than the next WR in Trenton Irwin. So he looks to be clearly the 3rd guy, though I expect Jermain Burton to assume that role down the road. As WR #3 against a bad pass D, he’s in play tonight.
KEON COLEMAN ($4800 DK) – The Jaguars have struggled with outside receivers. The Dolphins primary catchers went for 239 yards against Jacksonville in Week 1. And Jerry Jeudy, of all people, had 73 yards receiving on 5 catches in Week 2. After being shutout last week, I look for Coleman to get heavily involved and win his matchup against Ronald Darby (40th in PFF coverage ranking) or Motaric Brown (72nd in PFF coverage ranking).
KHALIL SHAKIR ($5500 DK) – The Jags look to be without their nickel DB tonight which should open up some big holes for Shakir. And the Jags rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in pass coverage. Shakir has been Allen’s favorite target so far garnering 8 catches in two games.
BRIAN THOMAS JR ($4900 DK) – Bills CB Christian Benford has been excellent in 2024 as he ranks as the 8th best DB according to PFF. He’ll likely see more of Christian Kirk thus opening up chances for rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. The former LSU standout has been Lawrence’s favorite target to date, bringing in his only passing touchdown last week against Cleveland. I lean to Thomas over Kirk based on matchups.
TERRY MCLAURIN($5700 DK) & NOAH BROWN ($3300 DK)– The McClaurin breakout game is coming. He has only 39 yards on the season but has been targeted 12 times in two games. He is the only real receiving threat for the Commanders and will draw a tough matchup against Cam Taylor-Britt. I still will play McClaurin but I like Noah Brown better in this spot. Brown found some rapport with Daniels catching three balls for 56 yards last week against NYG.
Of note, GABE DAVIS ($4200 DK) is in revenge mode tonight against his former team. He’s worth noting as they may try to force the ball into Davis at times.
Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase
Tier 2: Brian Thomas Jr, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk
Bargain Shopping (Cheap options): Noah Brown, Gabe Davis, Andre Iosavis
Tight End
With Engram out for the Jags, there is only one TE priced above $4K. This is a spot where you can find value. I won’t spend time writing this area up as the passing game angles are still relevant here. Brenton Strange is my favorite play as he wound up with 7 targets last week with Engram out.
Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid, Mike Gesicki, Brenton Strange
Tier 2: Zach Ertz
DEFENSE
The Bills are facing an offense with big issues on the O Line. We saw what their pass rush did to Tua last week and it could be similar tonight against the Jags. The biggest concern will be keeping Trevor Lawrence in the pocket. If so, I see 3+ sacks for the Bills. The Bengals are the other team to consider as we’re seeing rookie QB’s struggle adapting to the NFL game. Daniels wasn’t able to find the endzone in 6 redzone trips last week and is reluctant to put the ball in tight windows. The Bengals could give him different looks that opens up the potential for turnovers tonight.
Tier 1: Buffalo Bills
Tier 2: Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown
Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns. I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Josh Allen or Travis Etienne in the early game. I’ll look at Ja’Marr Chase and Jayden Daniels as my wo primary MVPs in the night game.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.
Best Rules for the slate (JAX at BUFF):
- Play Josh Allen. I’ll primarily have him at MVP and CPT since we can find salary relief in other places.
- Both RB’s are in play and I’m comfortable pairing Cook with Allen in Showdowns.
- I will be heavy on Bills Defense tonight as they should rack up the sacks and create turnovers.
- I’m a full fade on Trevor Lawrence but will play some of his pass catchers.
- My order of preference at WR is Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas, Khalil Shakir, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis.
- Both TE’s are in play. But only pair with one other pass catcher, or none, from his team. Strange could be run naked as the only Jags pass catcher if you want to get different.
- Both kickers are in play but I favor Tyler Bass of Buffalo.
Best Rules for the slate (WASH at CIN):
- Play Ja’Marr Chase in most (if not all) lineups. I’ll primarily have him at MVP and CPT since we can find salary relief in other places. Washington has allowed the most points to #1 WR’s and is the worst pass defense in football.
- I prefer Jayden Daniels to Joe Burrow based on rushing potential. But I see a strategy where I can use both QB’s.
- Consider Noah Brown as WR #2 on Washington. Good salary relief too.
- Mike Gesicki is my preferred #3 pass catcher on Cincy. Could rise to #2 if he gets redzone targets.
- Brian Robinson will have a good game as Cincy has been charitable to #1 RB’s.
- Cincy D is in play.
- Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups. With Washington’s struggles in the redzone, I like Austin Seibert better (7 FG’s made last week).
- Zack Moss got 80% of the snaps and 76% of the touches last week. Until they get confidence in Brown, Moss looks to be the only viable option in the Cincy backfield.
Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.
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