Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Week 1 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Running Back

Atlanta gave up 186 rushing yards and a TD in Week 2 to the Philadelphia Eagles. About half of the yards the Falcons gave up were to Hurts and not one of the Eagle running backs. The Falcons have been the fifth-best team against running backs in fantasy, giving up 16.2 DK. With the injury to Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs don’t have a clear top guy at running back. All signs point to Carson Steele as the running back who will take over most of the touches at running back.

In his first two games, Steele has only seen 19 snaps but has had a carry on nine of those snaps (47.3%). Steele has only 27 yards from his nine carries, 3 yards per attempt. The other running back who will see carries for the Chiefs is Samaje Perine. Perine has not seen a carry in his 17 snaps but has caught two passes for 13 yards. 

With how good Patrick Mahomes is, I am not making it a priority to have either KC running back in my lineup. The Chiefs can win this game without either guy having a breakout game. If I use one in bigger contests, I would prioritize Steele over Perine.

Tier 1: Carson Steele

Tier 2: Samaje Perine

Wide Receiver

The Falcons gave up 23 completions to Jalen Hurts, but those 23 only went for 183 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta did an excellent job at keeping everything in front of them and not giving up any big plays in the passing game. The longest completion for the Eagles was 19 yards to DeVonta Smith.

So far, in two weeks, only three KC wide receivers have seen a reception. Of those three, there are two to focus on: Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Rice leads the Chiefs in receptions (12), yards (178), and targets (15). Rice should draw the attention of Dee Alford from Atlanta. This should be a favorable matchup for Rice, as Alford has given the most FP/RR (.24) of all Atlanta CBs. 

Xavier Worthy is the other wide receiver from the Chiefs that should be in lineups. Worthy is tied for third in targets (7) and receptions (4) but is second in yards (64). Worthy should see a lot of AJ Terrell on Sunday. Terrell is the fastest corner on Atlanta’s roster, and he should be the one who has to deal with Worthy’s speed. He is giving up .23 FP/RR, and his matchups see a target on 12.7% of routes ran. Worthy is seeing a target on 16.7% of his routes and averaged .39 fantasy points per route.

Justin Watson is the only other receiver from KC that has a reception. Watson has played in 48% of the Chiefs snaps over the first two weeks. He has only seen three targets when he is on the field, averaging a target on 5% of his snaps. Juju Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore saw snaps in Week 2, but neither saw a target in their 18 combined snaps. Both are deep punt plays.

Tier 1: Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy

Tier 2: Justin Watson

Punts/Fades: Juju Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore

Tight End

Travis Kelce is the Chief’s best tight end, but he has had a slow start to the season. He has played 107 snaps but only has seven targets for four receptions and 39 yards and has failed to find the end zone. The Falcons allow 10.4 DK against tight ends in their first two games. The Eagle’s tight ends had five receptions for 57 yards on six targets this past Monday. While Kelce has struggled, we can’t outright fade him as he has the potential to go off in any game, as he has the best connection with Mahomes.

Noah Gray is the backup tight end and can be a punt play. He has played 66 snaps this season and has seen three targets. He failed to have a target last week, which is why I see him as a punt play. 

Tier 1: Travis Kelce

Tier 2: Noah Gray

Deep Punt: Jared Wiley

Atlanta Falcons

Running Back

The Chiefs have been the fourth-best team against running backs so far, giving up 15.5 DK per game. They have allowed 114 rushing yards and a touchdown. They have given only 65 receiving yards to running backs, but they have allowed the fifth-most yards per reception (9.28).

In week 1, KC allowed Ravens running back Hill to finish with 53 receiving yards. Bijan Robinson is great at catching balls out of the backfield, having the fifth most receiving yards (555) by a running back since the start of last season. Robinson is one of my main targets for Showdown because of his pass-catching abilities, and it doesn’t hurt that he is averaging over 5 yards per carry this season.

Robinson’s backup, Tyler Allgeier, also has a similar skill set that can cause trouble for KC. He is averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season and has over 200 receiving yards since the start of 2023. I will roster him in some lineups, but I am not going overboard since this is still Bijan’s backfield.

Tier 1: Bijan Robinson

Tier 2: Tyler Allgeier

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs have been good against wide receivers so far this season. Through two weeks, they have allowed the 10th fewest DK points (24.7), 190 receiving yards, and two touchdowns to wide receivers.

Drake London is the leading wide receiver for the Falcons. London should play most of the game on the field’s right side, which will see him matched up with Jaylen Watson from the Chiefs. Watson is giving up .25 FP/RR, which is the second most by a Chiefs CB, only behind Chamarri Conner, who is their slot CB. London should see some success against Watson if the offensive line gives Cousins the chance to throw. London is seeing a target on 23.6% of his routes ran and getting .38 fantasy points per route ran.

The second wide receiver is Darnell Mooney. Mooney draws the short straw in terms of matchups, as he should see Trent McDuffie most of the day. McDuffie is allowing the fewest fantasy points per route run (.18) and the lowest percentage of targets (10.9%). I still like Mooney, but I would put him behind London.

Atlanta’s third wide receiver is Ray-Ray McCloud III. McCloud has played in 77.7% of the Falcons snaps this season, leading the team in targets with 12. He is my favorite punt CPT on DK and a solid flex play on FD because of his price.

Tier 1: Drake London

Tier 2: Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III

Tight End

KC could have had a worse start in stopping opposing tight ends. They give up the most points to opposing tight ends, 30.8 DK. Tight ends have 25 receptions, 276 yards, and a touchdown against the Chiefs in the first two weeks. Last week, the three Bengal tight ends who saw a target had 17 receptions and 151 yards. 

Kyle Pitts is the top tight end for the Falcons. He has seen seven targets in the first two games, six receptions, and a touchdown. Pitts is still looking for his breakout performance this season, and this matchup is his best chance.

Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley have had snaps this season at tight end. Neither is in play for me, as only Woerner had seen a target in week 1 when he had two targets and one reception for four yards.

Tier 1: Kyle Pitts

Punt/Fade: Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Bijan Robinson
• Rashee Rice
• Patrick Mahomes
• Drake London
• Travis Kelce
• Xavier Worthy
• Kirk Cousins
• Kyle Pitts
• Ray-Ray McCloud III

Flex Rankings Tier 2:

• Darnell Mooney
• Justin Watson
• Tyler Allgeier
• Carson Steele
• Samaje Perine
• Harrison Butker
• Younghoe Koo
• Noah Gray
• Chiefs D/ST
• Atlanta D/ST

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least 1
  • Rice or Worthy
• Play at least 3 (DraftKings)
  • Rice, Worthy, Robinson, London, or Kelce
• Don’t play more than 1 defense.
• Don’t play more than 2 skill positions against your defense.
• Don’t play a kicker against your defense
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player, someone has to move the ball down the field

Favorite prop for the game: Kyle Pitts Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DK)