Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: New England Patriots at New York Jets

Week 3 of the NFL season starts with the New England Patriots traveling to the Big Apple to take on the New York Jets. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I tend not to write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

New England Patriots

Running Back

The Jets are ranked 26th in rush defense via DVOA. They have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to RBs while giving up 226 yards and one rushing TD. They have been targetted with pass-caching backs the same number of times as the Jets (12).

Rhamondre Stevenson is a priority back in what on paper is the best spot for offensive production in the game, for either team. You are not making a lineup that doesn’t feature Stevenson or Breece Hall. Jacoby Brissett has not been capable of having a big passing game and the Patriots continue to lean on the run to shorten the game and methodically move the ball down the field.

This also bodes well for Antonio Gibson. He played 24% of offensive snaps in Week 2 while getting 11 carries. That ain’t bad on a showdown going against what has been a bad defensive front for the Jets to start the season. I would typically say don’t use two backs from the same team in the same lineup, but the way this offense is designed these two most likely touch the ball the first and second most times on the team. If you play them both then fade Brissett.

Wide Receiver

The New York Jets are ranked 15th in DVOA against wide receivers. They have allowed the 19th most fantasy points to the position (33.1).

K.J. Osborn is going to draw the most favorable primary matchup against D.J. Reed who has been nursing a knee injury. Reed has allowed 0.88 YPRC and the most air yards on the team (10.7). Reed covers the left side of the field almost exclusively. Osborn and Ja’Lynn Polk will both run a fair number of routes out to the right, but there has been some talk of Sauce Gardner lining up on Polk more than not. I don’t think Gardner shadows here, so perhaps Polk and Osborn both get a fair crack at Reed’s coverage at a even clip. The one thing I know for certain is Osborn will.

DeMario Douglas runs out of the slot on 66% of his routes. That puts him on Michael Carter, who is holding slot receivers to 0.63 YPRC. Douglas played 56% of snaps last week but received zero targets. He is a punt. The same goes for Tyquan Thornton. He played 46% of snaps last week, and like Douglas got zero targets. I can not recommend either with any confidence other than they will both be on the field for almost half of the offensive snaps.

Tight End

Hunter Henry is coming off a massive game with 8 receptions for 108 yards on 12 targets. Surely he will do that again right? Because that is how football works? Just a reminder he had 2 receptions for 18 yards just 7 days prior. The Jets are very aware of Henry and they know they should key in on him, like they have with other tight ends they have faced this season. They are allowing only an average of 5.6 fantasy points per game, to the position. They have only allowed a combined 69 yards and no touchdowns. I am not saying that Henry is a “bad play”, but I do think he will be over-owned for his salary. He is only $1,200 less than his quarterback and is the highest-priced Patriots pass catcher on the slate. Does that sound right to you? It doesn’t to me.

Austin Hooper played 54% of snaps last week compared to Henry’s 84%. He is only $2,400 and is decent leverage to Henry if you decide to fade him. That doesn’t mean I think you need a New England tight end.

New York Jets

Running Back

The Patriots have allowed the 9th fewest fantasy points to running backs. They have given up a total of 93 yards and 2 rushing TDs over 5 games. They have been targetted at the 13th highest rate with pass-catching running backs.

Although the Pats have been good against backs they have only faced Zach Moss and Zach Charbonnet so far. Breece Hall is a different monster. He is my top priority skill position player on the slate due to his electric running and pass-catching ability.

Braelon Allen warrants a conversation after he scored twice in Week 2 on 7 rushing attempts and 2 targets. His Showdown price shot up from $2,800 to $5,200. That seems excessive. I can see him getting there only if the Jets are struggling to move the ball through the air or if there is a blowout (pair him with Jets D). I prefer to let others chase the points with Allen while I roster him in a low percentage of my lineups.

Wide Receiver

The Patriots have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers (46.3) while being ranked 17th in DVOA against the position.

Garrett Wilson will draw shadow coverage for much of the game against Christian Gonzalez, the Patriot’s best cover corner. He technically has the worst YPRC numbers in the secondary, but this is because he has been tasked with covering Ja’Marr Chase and D.K. Metcalf the first two games. His coverage has earned him a DVOA ranking of 21st against WR1’s. Wilson is in the same tier as the two elite receivers and should continue to be targeted at a heavy rate, while the Patriots continue to play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. This matchup should be a battle for both Wilson and Gonzalez. We saw Metcalf win the matchup last week so Wilson can do the same here. He is a high priority, but still behind Breece Hall.

Allen Lazard and Mike Williams move around the field at a similar rate playing the slot, right, and left sides of the field. Williams snaps went from 18% in Week 1 to 65% in Week 2. This effectively pushed Xavier Gipson back to primarily just getting snaps (59% in Week 1 to 11% in Week 2) on special teams. Man coverage is going to benefit Williams but he still shouldn’t be on the field as much as Lazard (82% in Week 2). With similar matchups, I may as well lean on the guys who will run more routes in Lazard. This is only if you are forcing me to pick one. They are both essentially the same play.

Aaron Rodgers only throws to a few receivers. I don’t think you need to take punts on Malachi Corley or Irvin Charles, depending on who is active.

Tight End

The Pats have been elite at stopping tight ends. They have given up a total of 6 receptions this season for an average of 3 DraftKings points per game. While I expected more from Tyler Conklin this season, we just haven’t seen Aaron Rodgers looking his way. Aaron Rodgers is a simple guy to read. He will just target the same guys every single game. This doesn’t appear to be the Conklin breakout spot. He is going to need to get in the box because the yards and targets aren’t there. Jeremy Ruckert is his backup. He was targeted 3 times last week (more than Conklin) but couldn’t come down with a catch. He is a punt.

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

There are more CPTs tonight than I traditionally consider, but this is how I am playing it in MME, so I am going for full transparency.

Best Flex Punts (FD and DK): Antonio Gibson, K.J. Osborn, Austin Hooper

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Breece Hall
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Garrett Wilson
• Aaron Rodgers
• Jacoby Brissett
• Ja’Lynn Polk
• Greg Zuerlein
• Jets Defense
• Joey Slye
• Hunter Henry
• K.J. Osborn
• Antonio Gibson
• Allen Lazard
• Mike Williams
• DeMario Douglas
• Braelon Allen
• Tyler Conklin
• Tyquan Thornton

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Patriots D
• Austin Hooper
• Jeremy Ruckert
• Xaiver Gipson

Punts (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• No other guys in consideration

Best Rules for the slate:

Read the “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article attached at the top of this article where all the rule theories are listed. Here are some specific ones for this slate:

Overall slate note: We are dealing with two very condensed offenses. You don’t have to get too cute tonight. You also do not need to go nuts picking weird low-owned captains and MVPS. We know where the points are coming from in this one.

• Play at least 1
  • Hall or Stevenson
• Play at least 1
  • Hall or Wilson
• Play at least 3 (DraftKings)
  • Hall, Stevenson, Wilson, Rodgers, Brissett
• I am not forcing in a QB tonight. I will likely have a QB on 75% of my teams. My preference would be Rodgers.
• Don’t play more than 2 WR/TE, per team, per lineup, even if you have the QB.
  • Neither QB has supported over 2 WR/TE in a game this season to be optimal on a showdown lineup.
• Force in at least 1 Kicker or Defense on DraftKings. FanDuel they are more expensive so I am less on them there
• Don’t play more than 1 defense.
• Don’t play more than 2 skill positions against your defense.
• I will be limited in most of my lineups to play no more than 1 tight end. With how well the teams cover the position, and Henry being way overpriced, I find this to be a good way to limit my builds.
• Don’t play a kicker against your defense
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player, someone has to move the ball down the field