Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Thirsty Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. We were back on the betting scene yesterday and swept the slate going 2-0. The Mets attacked an atrocious Toronto bullpen and pulled off a late-inning comeback while the Dodgers bashed their way to snapping the Cubs 8-game road winning streak. We have an action-packed Thursday as there are a total of 8 games on the schedule. For the DFS slate, the main card is at night with five games to choose from.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
BOSTON RED SOX +165 at NEW YORK YANKEES
MLB’s biggest rivalry is squaring off tonight in a huge series for both teams. The Red Sox enter the 4-game set with the Yankees with some momentum coming off a series win (in walkoff fashion) against the Boston Orioles. That win pushed them to just four games behind the Twins for the final playoff spot. And on the other side, the Yankees had a walk-off win against the Royals last night to claim a series victory against a playoff contender. With that win, they opened up a 1.5 lead in the AL East against the Orioles.
I’m backing the dogs tonight in New York to take Game 1 and make the AL East even more interesting as we enter the last 2.5 weeks of the season. First, the Yankees are giving the ball to Nestor Cortes. Yes, that Nester Cortes who they kicked to the bullpen last week with no warning. But now decided they want him back as a starter as they try to stretch out days of rest for Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil. Maybe that’s motivation for Cortes to succeed but I look at it more of a lack of confidence in their quirky LHP. While he has pitched well of late, the Red Sox have good numbers off of Nestor with a team batting average of 0.291 with four homers.
Cooper Criswell gets the nod for Boston and has been efficient of late posting a sub 3.00 ERA since his return to the rotation in late August. The key to his game is keeping the ball down as he owns a 51% groundball rate.
Note the Red Sox are much better on the road this season sporting a 39-32 record away from Fenway. And they’re 5-4 against the Yankees this season including a 2-1 mark in New York. I like their bats against Cortes and if they can get to the Yankees bullpen they will have success as that unit had to pitch 6 innings last night using up five relievers.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
TARIK SKUBAL over 8.5 K’s (+100 DK)
The Tigers pitcher is the overwhelming favorite for AL Cy Young. And while that’s plenty to pitch for, the Tigers have got on a late run and made things interesting in the AL Wild Card as they trail the Twins by only 3 games for the final spot. So there’s a lot in play today when the Tigers take the field against the Rockies. I’m focused on Skubal’s strikeout prop today because it is a big game and the Rockies have the 2nd highest K rate in baseball. That rises to 1st when they play on the road. And Skubal is 3rd in the league in K’s with 208 while flashing a nice 30.3% K rate.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 5.
If you’re playing the early slate, my favorite pitchers are:
- TARIK SKUBAL ($10100 DK)
- FRAMBER VALDEZ ($9100 DK)
- SONNY GRAY ($9200 DK)
As for stacks, look at HOUSTON, DETROIT and ST LOUIS look to be in prime spots. Because you’ll likely need to pay up for pitching, it’ll leave you with some decisions to make. For single entries, I picked the middle of the Houston order with pieces from Detroit that were batting 5th and lower. But there is a case for paying up for Detroit’s hitters and then adding in affordable Houston bats or even getting mid $4K bats from STL.
Top Pitchers to Target:
BRYCE MILLER ($9200 DK):
Seattle’s SP has been very good at home this year with a 6-3 record and 2.03 ERA. Opponents are batting just 0.180 off Miller at home and he has a K rate of 10.3 from the mound at Safeco. So we always look to take Miller when at home, but there’s more to that. Since the start of June, Miller has a 5-1 record and 2.10 ERA and seven quality starts regardless of where he pitches.
KUMAR ROCKER ($8500 DK)
The Rangers are calling up their prized prospect to start his first Major League game tonight. Rocker comes with some question marks mainly because he just returned from Tommy John surgery in July. So he’s thrown just 29.2 innings at AAA and hasn’t gone over 72 pitchers in any start. But the K/9 is eye opening, sitting at a Paul Skenes level of 14.29.
We all know the struggles that Seattle has had at the plate. They lead the MLB with a 27.4% strikeout rate. And we all know that K’s prevail in DFS. Case in point yesterday’s day slate where Matthew Boyd put up 20.35 DK points in just 4.1 innings of work. That was because of his 13 outs, 9 were K’s. Yet Bowden Francis took a no-hitter into the 9th inning, registering 24 outs, and scored just 15.6 DK points because he struck out only one batter. So even with a short leash, Rocker can outpace many SP’s on this slate with his high K potential.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL:
Value Pitchers to Target:
GAVIN WILLIAMS ($7400 DK)
Cleveland went 7-3 on a recent road trip and had success against tough teams such as the Dodgers and Royals. Today they return to Cleveland where they face a team in the Tampa Bay Rays that’s just trying to finish the season on a high note. While Williams got batted around in his last appearance, he had two strong games prior to that. And his advanced metrics show that he is due for a major uptick in positive regression. That’s because his 5.25 ERA is met with a 3.79 FIP showing he’s been let down by both his defense and some bad luck. Additionally, for a pitcher in this range he has a desirable K rate at 24.2%. He’s had six games this year with 6+ K’s.
HONORABLE MENTION: MITCHELL PARKER ($6800 DK), DARREN MCCAHUGAN ($5500 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
YANKEES:
Other Stacks to Consider: NATIONALS, BREWERS, GUARDIANS
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