Jared Levitt 
Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and that means a large slate. Tonight we have ourselves an 11-game slate of MLB DFS on both sites. This is a slate where pitching will be a spend down game again for me. The 3 most expensive pitchers on this slate are either in bad matchups or coming of the IL. With spending down pitching, that will mean we’ll have plenty of money for bats tonight. I expect this to be a slate where it will be on the higher scoring side of things.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
I’m going to break down why I’m out on the most expensive pitchers tonight. On DK, the highest-priced pitcher is Shota Imanaga against the Dodgers. Facing the Dodgers is enough reason to fade. Next up will be his fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto is far from stretched out. I’m not willing to go to $9.5k on DK for a pitcher who only got up to 53 pitchers in his rehab outings. After that is Nate Eovaldi against a very good Dbacks lineup. While Eovaldi has been solid, I’m not willing to spend up on a pitcher who isn’t a stud facing off against a Dbacks lineup that is really good. I’m out on all 3 of these. The red flags are enough to scare me away.
Pablo Lopez ($9.1k on DK/$10k on FD) vs. Los Angeles Angels
I’m more apt to play Pablo Lopez on Dk than I am FD tonight thanks to the savings, but he’s still very much in play on both sites. This is a solid spot for Lopez who is closing out the 2024 season in great form. Over the last month, Lopez has pitched a strong 1.35 ERA. He’s coming off a 9 K outing against the Tampa Bay Rays and with a matchup against the Angels, I would not be shocked to see him replicate that.
Although the Angels were able to put 6 runs last night, they still struck out a bunch. Over the last month, the projected Angels lineup for tonight has struck out 31% of the time vs. righties. Yes, they can get a homer or 2 when they are on, but they are facing a pitcher in Lopez who tends to put the ball on the ground. Over the last month, Lopez has allowed just 1 dong and has a 55% GB rate. Lopez is my SP1 tonight.
David Peterson ($8.5k on DK/$9k on FD) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The New York Mets are fighting for their playoff lives, and their success has been due to their starting pitching. David Peterson has been a bright spot for the Mets over the last month or so, putting together a string of 5 quality starts over his last 7 and not allowing more than 2 ER in any of those 7 starts. While he isn’t normally known to be a huge strikeout pitcher, he did just whiff 11 Red Sox in his last outing.
This is a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that is typically much stronger against righties than it is lefties. Over the last month, the Blue Jays have a nearly 29% K rate vs. lefties and a wOBA of just .263. Like Lopez, Peterson doesn’t give up much in the way of power. Just 2 homers allowed over his last 33 innings of work. Love this spot for Peterson tonight.
The other pitchers I have interest in tonight will be Spencer Arrighetti (high risk/high reward) vs. Oakland, Aaron Civale (great value) vs. a high-strikeout San Francisco Giants team, Rhett Lowder vs. St. Louis, and Alex Cobb vs. a terrible White Sox Lineup. Make sure to drop into discord prior to lock to get my final thoughts on pitching.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Cleveland Guardians vs. Jonathan Cannon
The sky is blue and the White Sox continue to lose. The White Sox are now 33-112 and have a -304 run differential. With Jonathan Cannon on the hill for the White Sox, those numbers should only worsen. Over the last month, Cannon has a far from impressive 6.39 ERA and an xFIP that’s over 5. This is a spot where we can certainly chase some power as Cannon has allowed 5 homers in his last 25 innings of work. He’s allowed at least 1 homer in 7 of his last outings. We’ll want to chase power with the lefties in this matchup.
Lefties have hit 10 of the 15 homers he’s allowed this season and they also have a slugging % of .512 against him. With how Guaranteed Rate Field plays, this is a huge advantage for the Guardians here and they’re also guaranteed to get 9 AB. My only concern with this stack is that the White Sox bullpen has somewhat turned a corner. Over the last couple of weeks, they’ve been respectable with a 3.50 ERA. That said, it’s still the same bullpen that has been terrible all year long so my concern isn’t that great.
Core Plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez
Secondary Plays: Lane Thomas, Steven Kwan
Value Plays: Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio, Kyle Manzardo, Will Brennan
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Hayden Birdsong
I also really like this spot for the Brewers tonight against Hayden Birdsong. The rookie right-hander for the Giants has really struggled in his first cup of coffee this season. Through 12 starts, Birdsong is 3-5 with an ERA of 5.19 across 52 innings of work. What’s done him in so far has been his command as he owns an extremely high BB/9 of 6.06. If we look at what he’s done across the minors since breaking in back 2022, this really isn’t an anomaly.
In AAA this season he had a 6.00 and in AA last season he had a 5.09. He struggles to get the ball over the plate and that has led to a WHIP of 1.5 this season. All the Brewers need to do tonight is be patient and they’ll get enough runners on to put up some runs. Birdson has also really struggled vs. righties and that brings into play the top hitters for Milwaukee in Willy Adames, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio. All 3 typically crush righties.
Core Bats: Willy Adames, William Contreras, Jackson Chourio
Secondary Bats: Brice Turang
Value Bats: Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Rhys Hoskins, Joey Ortiz
Other bats I like tonight will be the Orioles vs. Kutter Crawford, Red Sox lefties vs. Albert Suarez, Padres vs. a struggling George Kirby, and Twins vs. Griffin Canning. To a lesser extent, I also like like the Mets vs. Bassitt. The Mets bats aren’t hot right now and when Bassitt is off his game, he’s the ultimate slump-buster.
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