Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off with a bang as the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs face off against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Running Back

In 2023, the Baltimore Ravens were ranked 1^st in DVOA (via FTN Data) against the run. They did however surrender 21 DK points per game to the position as a whole. Due to the nature of their games, quarterbacks threw to the running back at the 10^th highest rate in the NFL. 

Isiah Pacheco should be used like he was at the end of last year where he was seeing 80% of the snaps and was the only reliable source for rushing production. He is in play due to volume and opportunity, not due to matchup. To close out the season he rattled off nine consecutive games of double-digit points. That is usually enough to get you on the optimal lineup on a showdown slate. 

Samaje Perine should get some of the pass-catching work, however, I would prefer Justice Hill on the Ravens over Perine due to projected snaps. Carson Steele is listed as the RB3 for the Chiefs but it would take an injury to Pacheco for him to have any impact whatsoever. 

Wide Receiver

The Ravens were ranked 1^st in team DVOA against the pass and gave up 32.1 fantasy points per game (24^th most) to wide receivers last season.

Xavier Worthy draws the most favorable on paper “big play” primary matchup for the Chiefs receivers yet we do not have a clear picture of how many snaps he will be in. To be clear, “most favorable” does not mean “great”, it means the best out of the options we are given. Last season the Chiefs would mix in 6 receivers a game and it is just too early to tell what Worthy’s true role would be. If I had to guess, he will be playing just as much as Rashee Rice in weeks to come, yet I am not certain that is the case for the first game of his career. Worthy is one of the fastest receivers in the league. He should have no trouble getting over the top of Brandon Stephens, who I presume is his primary matchup. Stephens gave up almost twice as many yards per reception last season, compared to Marlon Humphreys and slot corner Kyle Hamilton. Worthy has the most big-play potential on the Chiefs, not Rashee Rice. 

Rice is going to be ole faithful, however. He bounces all over the field and will certainly get the most targets out of all receivers, probably on both sides of the ball.  He is a viable flex and CPT on DraftKings. 

Justin Watson is the WR3 on the depth chart with Hollywood Brown out, but he is nothing more than a punt. The same can be said for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman. At least three of these four will see the field for spurts and guessing which one, if anyone, comes down with a big play is almost impossible. You are just mixing them into MME lineups. If I had to guess the one that stays on the bench it would be MeCole Hardman as he appears to be behind them all on the depth chart.

Tight End

The Ravens gave up only 10.5 DK points per game in 2023, which is pretty elite. Compare that to the Chiefs who gave up 10.6 per game. Those stats can be thrown out to some extent because when you get studs like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews playing they tend to inflate the numbers on a somewhat unreliable position across the NFL. 

Travis Kelce is arguably the TE1 in the league and he is priced like one being the 3^rd highest-salary player on the DraftKings slate. There is never an issue playing Kelce, but the matchup shouldn’t be a cakewalk. That being said he will certainly be drawing Patrick Mahomes’ eye, as well as the defense, in the red zone. If you play Kelce in the CPT or MVP spot make sure to pair him with Mahomes in the flex. 

Noah Gray makes for a sneaky option at only $1,200 on DraftKings. There were games last season where he played 60% of snaps, even when Kelce was healthy. Those are pretty good odds on a showdown slate. 

The Chiefs did play 3 tight ends in almost every game last season; however, Jared Wiley and Peyton Hendershot would be used primarily as blocking options. They are largely fadeable. 

Baltimore Ravens

Running Back

The Chiefs run defense is one of the better spots to attack on the slate, given last season’s rush DVOA ranking (27^th going into the Super Bowl).

Both Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are both propped up nicely here. One of them (or Justice Hill) is going to score on the ground. I don’t think it is a bad rule to force one of the three in every lineup. If I have to choose between the two studs, Lamar wins out simply because he plays quarterback. 

As of writing this article, Justice Hill is the only other Ravens running back on the depth chart that is expected to play. I don’t think it would be wise to just look over him on a showdown. He played meaningful snaps in almost every game last season. He could be the vulture we all hate (or love) at the end of the night. He is certainly worth some dart throws as the Ravens have a history of going running back by committee. 

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs were ranked 5^th in DVOA against the pass heading into the Super Bowl. They had allowed the fourth least number of fantasy points during the season (27.5) to wide receivers. They are expected to yet again be a difficult matchup for wideouts. None of the starting corners gave up more than 0.89 yards per route run last season. That is very good. Typically, you would think the slot receiver (Nelson Agholor in this case), would have the best matchup. That is not true as he will see Chamarri Conner for about 75% of his routes. 

Zay Flowers is the biggest name receiver for the Ravens but I like his primary matchup the least. He should draw Jaylen Watson for over half of his routes, who gave up the least number of yards per route run (0.79) out of all of the Chiefs corners last season. That being said Flowers should draw several more targets than the rest of the Ravens receivers, making him the most likely to succeed on volume alone. Will that be enough to get him into the optimal? It’s doubtful unless he finds the endzone. 

Rashod Bateman is coming off a dud of a season, and the matchup for him isn’t much easier as he swaps from the right to the left side of the field on the majority of his routes. Trent McDuffie should be playing the outside more in this matchup and when he isn’t on Flowers he will be on McDuffie plenty. 

Overall, I am not very high on this receiving room, in this matchup and am considering just limiting my Ravens receivers to one per lineup, especially on FanDuel. 

Tight End

The Chiefs allowed only 10.6 fantasy points and 4.8 catches to the position per game, per 2023 season stats before the Super Bowl. It isn’t great, but probably a better spot than what the receivers are looking at. Mark Andrews is cheap enough for a stud at only $6,400 on DraftKings. He is certainly in play. The same could be said for his backup Isaiah Likely. He had a stellar training camp and the coaches are talking him up quite a bit but he still won’t see the field nearly as much as Andrews. With Andrews healthy last year Likley was on the field for about 20% of snaps. He will need to score because the volume won’t be enough to get him in the optimal lineup however that is a possibility. We saw some big play upside from him last season and he is a big body with good hands who can separate in single coverage in the endzone and down the sidelines. 

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

There are more CPTs tonight than I traditionally consider, but this is how I am playing it in MME, so I am going for full transparency.

Best Flex Punts (FD and DK): Justice Hill, Noah Gray, Isaiah Likeley ( I probably limit to one per lineup)

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Lamar Jackson
• Patrick Mahomes
• Derrick Henry
• Isiah Pacheco
• Travis Kelce
• Rashee Rice
• Mark Andrews
• Xavier Worthy
• Justin Tucker
• Harrison Butker
• Zay Flowers
• Rashod Bateman
• Justice Hill
• Nelson Agholor
• Isaiah Likely 
• Noah Gray

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Chiefs D
• Ravens D
• Justin Watson
• Skyy Moore
• JuJu Smith-Schuster

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Tylan Wallace
• Devontez Walker
• Deonte Harty
• Mecole Hardman
• Jared Wiley
• Charlie Kolar
• Peyton Hendershot 

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one QB
• Play at least one Jackson, Henry, Hill
• Limit your exposure to receivers on both teams. I will limit my Ravens to 1 and Chiefs to 2 per lineup, more of a FanDuel rule
• Play at least 3, Mahomes, Jackson, Henry, Pacheco, Rice, Kelce, Andrews
• I am relatively high on kickers, due to the skill of these two defenses but the opposing offense’s ability to at least move the ball down the field. Get plenty of exposure to Tucker and Butker
• Don’t play more than 1 kicker
• Don’t play more than 1 defense, if any
• Don’t play a kicker against your defense
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player, someone has to move the ball down the field