Jared Levitt 
TGIF! It’s Friday and that means a large slate. Tonight, we’ll have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate brings us a couple of top arms that are in less than ideal spots. With pitching tonight, I’m going to be more focused on matchup than I name. We have a couple of above-average arms that I like due to the spots they are on. We also have a top offense heading to Coors after playing in a less-than-ideal hitting environment.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
The top 2 name pitchers on this slate are Blake Snell and Framber Valdez. Let’s start with Valdez. I’m out on him. The matchup for him could not be any worse. He’s facing a Royals team that is one of the top teams in the league against southpaws. I have no interest in him tonight at all. Next up is Blake Snell.
Since the All-Star Break, Snell has been mostly fire. He came back down to earth in his last outing, an outing that saw him going only 3 innings due to having absolutely no command of his pitchers. While the Marlins are mostly terrible, they aren’t a high-strikeout team and actually have some patience at the plate. They are middle of the pack in terms of K rate against lefties this season. With this matchup, the ceiling is lowered a bit. I’m more than likely out on the most expensive pitcher tonight having a lower ceiling.
George Kirby ($9.8k on DK/$9.4k on FD) vs. Los Angeles Angels
George Kirby has suffered from a bit of bad luck over the last month. Hitters have a BABIP of nearly .380 vs. him over the last 30 days. That’s one of the highest marks of any pitcher on this slate. With a matchup against a terrible Angels team, I’m looking for some positive regression from Kirby tonight. This is an Angels team that has been really struggling offensively lately. Over the last week, the Angels have scored just 14 runs while striking out 35% of the time.
The projected lineup for the Angels tonight has a 30% K rate vs. righties over the last month. 7 of the 9 hitters in this lineup have a K rate greater than 26% vs. righties over the last month. If ever there was a matchup that would help for a rebound game, this is it. I wish the price were a bit lower for Kirby tonight, but I do like him to score a whole bunch of points for us. Last time he faced the Angels he threw a 22 DK-point game and with the way the Angels are right now, I like him for even more this evening.
JP Sears ($7.9k on DK/FD) vs. Texas Rangers
If the Rangers/White Sox series showed anything, it showed that the Rangers really aren’t that good. They managed to score just 9 runs against an absolutely atrocious White Sox pitching staff. They were stymied by the likes of Nick Nastrini, Chris Flexen, and a host of other pitchers who wouldn’t be in the Majors if not for playing for the White Sox. Last year’s World Series Champs now sit 8 games under .500 and 9.5 games out of the Wild Card.
They have virtually zero shot at making the playoffs this season. To say they were a disappointment would be an understatement. Against lefties, this lineup has really struggled over the last month. They own a .096 ISO and a .254 wOBA. I’m willing to chase here with Sears. He’s cheap and has some upside tonight in this matchup.
The other pitchers that I like tonight will be Pablo Lopez vs. Toronto and Kevin Gausman vs. Minnesota. As I said above, I’m personally out on Blake Snell tonight. I’ve been fading the top salaried pitcher on slates of late and it hasn’t come back to haunt me. Snell is arguably the most talented pitcher on this slate and I would not fault you for going there. I’m just personally out on him.
Another arm that’s viable if you want to chase is Tylor Megill against the White Sox. He’s cheap and shouldn’t give up too much damage today.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Mets vs. Jonathan Cannon
The next contestant that gets to take on the lowly White Sox is my New York Mets. The Mets are clinging to their playoff lives. Thanks to a comeback win by the Phillies last night, the Mets sit 3 games out from the last Wild Card spot. A 3-game set with the White Sox could not have come at a better time. The Mets will get to take on Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox bullpen today. Cannon is a low-strikeout pitcher who has a 4.57 ERA in his rookie year.
Over his last 9 starts, teams have scored at least 4 runs against a combo of him and the bullpen 7 times, making it nearly a lock that the Mets score at least 4 runs. They will surely score way more than that. I’m going to make a slight preference to lefties here as lefties have an .849 slugging % vs. him this season. 9 of the 13 homers he’s given have been to lefties.
You know what that means. I’m starting this stack off with Francisco Lindor. Lindor just continues to put up solid numbers year after year. He needs just 2 homers and 5 steals to hit another 30/30 season. With a month left in the season, that seems very attainable. Over the last week, Lindor has 3 bombs and 6 RBI. He’ll look to add to that total tonight.
I’m also very interested in Jesse Winker and Brandon Nimmo tonight. Nimmo’s price has come down big time to just $4.2k. This is a matchup he should excel in. While I’ll prefer the lefties here, I also very much like Mark Vientos and Pete Alonso. Both guys have home run upside every time they step up to the plate. 15 of Vientos’ 20 homers this season have come against righties and he has a very respectable .819 OPS vs. them. This entire lineup will be in play tonight.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Bailey Falter
The Guardians get one of the best matchups on the board today as they take on Bailey Falter. Falter has somewhat of a respectable ERA this year at 4.25. His xERA is nearly a full run higher though at 5.11. Falter is limping to the end of the season. He’s allowed games of 4 ER and 5 ER in 2 of his last 3 outings.
Falter is a low strike-out pitcher who gives up a ton of flyballs. Over the last month, he’s allowed a nearly 40% flyball rate. Against a powerful lineup like the Guardians, that’s a recipe for disaster. This is a Guardians team that has a lot of pop vs. lefties. The projected lineup tonight for the Guardians has a .350 wOBA and a .205 ISO vs. lefties this season.
This lineup has 3 regulars in it that have an OPS of at least .900 vs. lefties this year. The one guy I really want to lock in tonight is going to be Jhonkensy Noel. Noel has been a beast vs. lefties this season. 7 of his 12 homers this season have been against lefties and he’s sporting a massive 1.187 OPS vs. southpaws. He’s a huge power threat tonight and I would not be shocked to see him take Falter deep.
Next, I also want David Fry. Fry has an OPS of .972 vs. lefties this season and is extremely affordable at $3.8k on DK and $3k on FD tonight. Over the last month, he has a .360 ISO vs. lefties. I’m not going to force him in, but Jose Ramirez is always in play. Other guys I like here tonight will be Lane Thomas, Josh Naylor, and Andres Gimenez. I’m not going to shy away from lefties as we’ll see a decent amount of the bullpen tonight and this Pirates bullpen is not good.
Other stacks I like tonight will be the A’s vs. Jon Gray, Cardinals vs. Marcus Stroman, and Orioles vs. Austin Gomber.
Top Individual Bats I like
Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday vs. Jon Gray
Juan Soto, Austin Wells, and Jazz Chisholm vs Erick Fedde
Oneil Cruz, Rowdy Tellez vs. Ben Lively
Austin Slater, Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson vs. Austin Gomber
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
