Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. We had a solid day yesterday on both the betting and DFS fronts. Our bets came home with a 4-2 record and +3.55 units. Our DFS screens were bright green as we rostered the highest two scoring pitchers in Framber Valdez and Bowden Francis. Today’s slate brings us a solid set of 9 games. The pitching looks to be top heavy but there are some intriguing plays in the $7-8K range that we’re going to want to get in our player pool.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -200 at MIAMI MARLINS
I hate taking big favorites and try to strategically pick my spots. And frankly I’ve been just OK at it here at Win Daily Sports. On the MLB season, I’ve taken a favorite at odds of -180 or higher 23 times and I’m 16-7. The return on that has been +2.3 units. But tonight brings us a situation that I feel comfortable stepping into the danger zone and laying big juice on a favorite. And that’s going to be with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D’backs were swept out of Tampa as they lost the final game of their series with the Rays in extra innings. So they are coming into this matchup with the fish a little bit angry.
But the decided edge for me tonight is the pitching matchup. While Brandon Pfaadt has been average for Arizona, they play well above average when he’s on the mound. The D’backs are 8-1 in his last nine starts. And in those 8 wins, they have scored 48 runs which is good for a 6 run/game average. Additionally, Miami is trotting out a bullpen game and will hand the ball to Adam Oller who has a 10.07 ERA. This is great news for Arizona as Miami’s bullpen has a 5.01 ERA in the month of August as they’ve shipped out most of their good arms at the trade deadline for future assets. Lastly, the Marlins are abysmal on Monday’s as they have just one win all season on the first day of the week. Their composite record on Monday’s is 1-12 which shows they struggle in series openers.
TAMPA BAY RAYS -130 over OAKLAND ATHLETICS
The Rays are coming off a weekend sweep of the D’backs and have some good vibes. They’ve had a tough stretch of games in August, playing all playoff contenders including two series with Houston. But they’ve managed to stay afloat posting a 7-8 record in those contests. So they will definitely welcome the break tonight when they take on the Oakland A’s for their last every series in the Colliseum.
DOG OF THE DAY: TO BE POSTED LATER
PLAYER PROPS
GAVIN STONE over 5.5 K’s (-105 DK)
At this point, it’s almost a right of passage to take a SP’s K prop against Seattle. The Mariners lead the league with a 27.7% K rate and that has ballooned to 29.2% this month. Gavin Stone has a subpar K rate, 18.9%, but is coming off a game where he struck out 6 batters against Milwaukee. And at this point I’m not even sure if K rate matters against Seattle as we’ve seen the likes of Bailey Falter get 8 K’s and Kenta Maeda rack up 5 K’s against the M’s in the last week.
PROP #2
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
DFS – 7:07 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:07pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
MICHAEL KING ($10,000 DK):
The Padres SP has been dominant of late. In the month of July he allowed just 5 ER’s and posted a 1.82 ERA. And that has pushed over to August as he just polished off a 7-inning performance where he allowed just 1 hit and struck out 10. In fact, home seems to be where his heart is of late as he’s struck out 39 batters in his last four starts in San Diego. Tonight, he faces a Twins team that has pop, ranking 5th in ISO and 6th in OPS on the season. But when King has faced other teams in the top 5 in both OPS and ISO (Boston, Baltimore, LAD), he’s fared very well posting a 3.13 ERA with 35 K’s. More importantly, his team is 5-0 in those games (King is 3-0).
As for the Twins, they rely on power as they are 4th in HR’s this month (7th on the season). However, King has allowed just 15 homers on the year and plays primarily to ground balls and K’s (FB rate is 37%). So I like this matchup tonight with power pitching looking to be the dominant form over power hitting.
TAJ BRADLEY ($9000 DK):
The Rays SP was dominant for a long stretch including most of July where he posted a 1.45 ERA. However, Bradley has been hit hard of late posting an 0-3 record and 9.64 ERA in his last three starts. So, I had to dive in the game logs to see if there has been a different approach or a dip in velocity. At first glance, he did have a small dip in fastball velocity but that came roaring back in his last start. If anything, it seems as though he’s been bitten by the home run (4 HR’s last 3 starts) as his fly ball rate is up over the past 3 starts. So that is something mechanically they’re likely looking to fix and I’m banking that’ll happen tonight when he takes the mound in a pitcher’s park out in Oakland.
The other factor I’m considering is that the A’s have the 4th highest K rate in baseball. And Bradley’s 28.5% K rate is the second highest on this slate behind only Michael King. So that raises his ceiling and makes him even more appealing especially on a smaller slate.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: YUSEI KIKUCHI ($8500 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
KYLE HARRISON ($7900 DK)
We saw what a LHP can do against the White Sox just yesterday when Framber Valdez pitched 7 shutout innings racking up 9 K’s along the way. Chicago is batting just 0.178 off lefties this month and has just 1 home run. While Harrison has been mired in mediocrity of his own, he has a recent gem versus a bad hitting team (COLORADO) where he racked up 37.2 DK points on July 26th. Harrison has also been much better at home this year, pitching to a 3.64 ERA which is one full run lower than his road number. He also has a K/9 of 9.45 at home vice 7.31 on the road. We know the struggles in Chicago are real and this will be a popular spot. But like yesterday with Valdez, we can’t pass this up especially at a price below $8K.
HONORABLE MENTION: GAVIN STONE ($7500 DK), JOE BOYLE ($7000 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
ROYALS:
The Royals offense has been cooking in August. They’ve overtaken Arizona for the top spot in batting average with a 0.285 number. They are now 2nd in runs (83), 2nd in OPS and 3rd in wOBA. And tonight, they get to feast on LAA pitching who have the 4th highest ERA in baseball at 4.55. They also have the 3rd highest xFIP and 4th lowest K rate in the MLB. So it’s a good night for a hot offense to go up against a pitching staff that struggles night in and night out. Case in point the Angels send out Carson Fullmer who has an 0-3 record and 4.22 ERA. He also has shown some luck with that ERA as his BABIP is below league average at 0.262 (average is 0.285).
So I’ll look to get some of the hotter Royals batters into my lineup and we’ll obviously start with Bobby Witt Jr (0.361 BA with 6 homers in August). Others I’ll add around him are Vinnie Pasquantino (6 homers in Aug), MJ Melendez, Michael Massey and Paul DeJong. But don’t sleep on a value player in DAIRON BLANCO ($3100 DK) who is batting 0.375 with 3 homers in his last 10 games.
GIANTS:
The Giants take on the White Sox with James Cannon (2-6 with a 4.02 ERA) scheduled to start. This will be a good spot for some of the hotter Giants hitters to stay hot. So we’ll look at Tyler Fitzgerald (0.343 BA and 5 homers in Aug), Mark Canha and Michael Conforto (0.319 BA and 3 homers in Aug). I’ll also consider Heliot Ramos who connected for a home run yesterday and Matt Chapman (4 homers this month).
Other Stacks to Consider: METS, REDS
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