Jared Levitt 
Happy Saturday Y’all! We have ourselves a nice-sized 8 game slate of MLB DFS tonight. With this slate, I’m going to be prioritizing bats. Pitching is very wonky at first glance, with only 1 pitcher being priced over $9.1k on DK. We have another Coors slate, followed by some other bats that will be in amazing spots.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Here’s my take on Chris Sale tonight. As it stands right now, I’m fading. I’m not saying that he won’t smash tonight because he has every opportunity to. This is a slate loaded with bats in great spots and I want to make sure that I grab them. I also don’t love the matchup here. Although the Angels are a mostly weak hitting lineup, they don’t strike out much vs. lefties. Collectively, the projected lineup tonight for the Angels has jut a 14% K rate over the last 30 days and just 18% for the season.
At $11k on DK, we need a near-perfect start for Sale and the matchup doesn’t dictate perfect for me. I’m not saying he isn’t the best pitcher on this slate, because he is. I’m just making the strategic decision to fade him. I will not talk you out of starting him though because again, he’s by far the best pitcher on this slate.
Hunter Brown ($9.1k on DK/$9.9k on FD) vs. Chicago White Sox
I knew going in last night with Spencer Arrighetti that he was a bit of a risk. He was coming off 2 stellar performances and was surely going to be chalky. He is an inconsistent pitcher that could have had a myriad of outcomes. He wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t great. That matchup was there for the taking and it is again tonight for a pitcher that’s been way more consistent and a pitcher I’m more comfortable with in terms of being chalky.
Hunter Brown is having an extremely strong season, with a 10-7 record and an ERA of 3.96. Over the last 30 days, he’s sporting an extremely respectable K rate over 28%. He’ll be facing off against a weak-hitting White Sox team, a White Sox team that has a 25% K rate vs. righties over the last month. At this price point, we should hope for a low 20 DK point outing. With what he’s done this season, he’s hit that more often than not. As it stands right now, he’s my SP1 tonight.
Dylan Cease ($8.6k on DK/$10.7k on FD) vs. Colorado Rockies
I need to preface this by saying this is a DK-only play tonight. I’m not willing to pay top dollar for a pitcher that is pitching in Coors. At $8.6k on DK though, well that’s a whole different story. Cease surely tanked in his last outing. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he was a bit rusty as he had only thrown 1 inning of work over the previous 10 days. It’s rare that we can get a pitcher of this magnitude at this price. Is it a risk because he’s playing in Coors? Oh, 100% it is. Am I playing cash games? No, I’m not.
This is strictly reserved for GPP’s. If you play cash, go spend up on Chris Sale. If you’re new here and new to baseball, the ball travels far in Coors. But it can only travel far if hitters are hitting the ball. Cease has one of the lowest contact rates against of any pitcher on this slate. The last time he played in Coors, he went for 33 DK points thanks to his 8 K’s in that game. Again, this isn’t for the faint of heart as he’s pitching in Coors. This is the risk I’m taking tonight with pitching.
Other pitchers that I do somewhat have interest in tonight will be Hayden Birdsong (could also stack against him) vs. Oakland, Osvaldo Bido vs. San Fran, and David Festa vs. Texas. Chris Sale is also very much in play and I wouldn’t blame you for using him, I’m just making a strategic decision to fade him tonight.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland
I wanted to spend down on pitching tonight because I want to spend up on hitting. While he’s been ok last couple of games, Kyle Freeland is still sporting an ERA well over 5 over the last month. He’s a pitcher that we can always count on to give up a lot of contact. Over the last 30 days, hitters have a more than 82% contact rate against Freeland. To make matters even worse for the Rockies southpaw, nearly 42% of that contact has been hit hard.
Over his 25 innings of work, Freeland has allowed a slate-high 11 barrels. Hitters aren constantly squaring up against him and that should continue tonight with a team that is hitting the ball well right now. After Freeland, we’ll get into a bullpen that has an ERA of 6.59 over the last 2 weeks. With Freeland, I’m going to be overly concerned about splits.
Priority Plays: Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano, Manny Machado (he’s still really good vs. lefties)
A notch down: Jackson Merrill, Ha-Seong Kim, Kyle Higashioka, Xander Bogaerts
Boston Red Sox vs. Cade Povich
We’ll need to monitor the weather here tonight, but if this game plays without any rain issues I not only like the Red Sox side of this one but a complete game stack. These 2 teams combined for a whole bunch of runs last night and the pitching today is more suspect. The Orioles have recalled Cade Povich to make today’s start.
The Orioles rookie has struggled at the Major League level. Through his first 8 starts, Povich owns a less-than-impressive 6.27. He’s been especially weak against righties this season as they have an OPS well over .900 against him. 6 of the 7 homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties and the Red Sox should be able to throw out 7 righties this in this lineup.
Core Plays: Tyler O’Neill (should return from the IL tonight), Rob Refsnyder (also a strong value), Connor Wong
Secondary Plays: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers
Value Plays: Danny Jensen, Rommy Gonzalez (pinch hit risk once a righty comes in), Ceddanne Rafaela
Other bats I like tonight will be the Orioles lefites vs. Brayan Bello, A’s vs. Hayden Birdsong (if Rooker is back tonight, I like them even more and could jump into my top 2), Astros vs. Chris Flexen (Yordan Alvarez is my favorite individual bat on this slate), and Braves vs. Griffin Canning.
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