Allan Fabrykant 
LEMOS V JANDIROBA
We are one week removed from the big PPV card in Manchester and have an interesting fight night coming our way tonight from Las Vegas, Nevada. Tonight, we have 11 action-packed fights, with two fighters looking to make a push towards the strawweight division title. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 5:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 60 Lemos vs Jandiroba.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Loik Radzhabov vs Trey Ogden
The odds have this one as a close matchup, but in my analysis, Radzhabov has a clear edge over his opponent, Trey Ogden. It is true that they have similar records and similar striking stats, but the advantage that Radzhabov has on the ground over his opponent is quite significant. Radzhabov averages over five more takedowns per 15 than Ogden and has notched an incredible 57% Takedown accuracy rate in the octagon. Even though Ogden’s 100% takedown defence rate looks intimidating, only one opponent has ever tried to take him down, and he stuffed all three of their attempts; over his next four fights, no opponent even attempted a takedown on him.
Both of these fighters have been very active, and I can see this fight being one of the most exciting on the card. However, similarly to his fight against Esteban Ribovics, I think we will see Radzhabov rely on multiple takedown attempts coupled with control time to take control in the fight. So, even if he gets into a bit of danger early on, he still has a clear path to victory.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Loik Radzhabov UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Steve Garcia vs Seung-Woo Choi
I’m honestly shocked that we’re getting odds that are this good for Steve Garcia. The man is an absolute killer who has won his last three UFC fights (all by KO) and is facing off against a fighter who has lost three of his last four octagon bouts.
Choi had high hopes at the beginning of his UFC career after entering the Octagon with a 7-1-0 record (with 5 KO wins). However, after a slow start and consistency issues. It’s hard to say whether Choi has long term staying power on the UFC roster.
In his matchup with Garcia, he’s the slower striker; he strikes less often, he absorbs more damage, his accuracy is a lot worse, and his takedown technique is not at Garcia’s level. In this matchup, we’ll see Garcia hurt Choi with shots from distance before securing a TKO finish on the ground. Garcia is the kind of fighter who will eat a couple of shots to find his perfect strike, and unfortunately for Choi, I don’t see his striking power or accuracy competing with Garcia’s.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Steve Garcia by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Kaynan Kruschewsky vs Curtis Holobaugh
Despite falling short in his UFC Debut, Kruschewsky is still an extremely talented prospect in the Welterweight division. His opponent, Holobaugh, was cut from the UFC back in 2019 and has gone 1-1 in his return to the UFC nearly one year ago. However, at nearly 38 years old, Holobaugh’s best years are certainly behind him.
Kruschewsky, on the other hand, is a quick striker who can also transition the fight to the ground if he needs to. He has a solid striking technique, and if he mixes in the takedowns effectively, Holobaugh will have no answers for him, just like we saw in Holobaugh’s last fight against Trey Ogden.
Although it may seem like a close fight early on, I see Holobaugh’s technique and tank fading fast in the second round while Kruschewsky takes over.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Kaynan Kruschewsky SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Amanda Lemos vs Virna Jandiroba
Lemos is the real deal, and she reminded us of this in a very tactical win over Mackenzie Dern earlier this year that included over ten total minutes of control time and a knockdown from Lemos in the second round.
Although Lemos is known for her three first-round KO wins over the span of four fights between 2019-2021, in her last fight, she showed that she has the patience to compete with a grappler as skilled as Dern. Lemos will have to go back to the lessons that she learned in this fight, as Jandiroba is a less talented version of Dern, who has a very similar grapple-heavy fight style that mixes in some strikes.
If Lemos comes out of the gate hot and sets the pace for the fight, it’ll be hard to see Jandiroba get herself back into it, and Lemos has a clear path to victory here if she can pepper Jandiroba with shots from distance and avoid any tricky grappling exchanges. Her path will very much focus on accumulating strikes rather than going in and finding the knockout blow. This means that although there’s a chance Lemos will secure a KO finish, it is much more likely that she will win a judge’s decision.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Amanda Lemos UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO).
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Miranda Maverick by Decision -105
Steve Garcia (Double Chance KO/Decision) -140
Loik Radzahbov -125
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Luana Carolina vs. Lucie Pudilová to go the Distance -400
- Jake Paul by Decision +200 (midnight)
