Jared Levitt 
Happy Saturday Y’all! Today we’ll have 2 fairly decent slates to play with it being Saturday. I’m going to be focused on the 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4pm EST. This is a slate that lacks a real clear path for pitching. The 5 most expensive pitches face really strong offenses in the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Royals, and Astros. I’m more than likely going to fade those pitchers and go with pitchers in the mid-tier as they present the best possible matchups.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Andrew Abbott ($8.5k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins
Andrew Abbott is in a nice stretch of pitching right now. We have to go back to May to find a game where he gave up more than 3 ER. Over the last month, Abbott has pitched to an ERA of 2.48. While the xFIP and SIERA are considerably higher and show that he’s due for some negative regression, I don’t see it happening quite yet and I don’t see it happening at the hands of the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins have been dreadful vs. lefties this season as they have an OPS of .596 and a wOBA of .264. They have done little to no damage at all against them. For Abbott’s sake, he’s coming off one of his best starts of the season, a 7 inning game that saw him give up 0 ER and strike out 8 Rockies. A duplicate of that outing is very much in play for him today.
Christian Scott ($7.1k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies
I preach that in DFS when looking for pitchers, we need to find pitchers who have extreme K upside. While Christian Scott hasn’t shown that much of late, he does have that ability deep down inside him. Throughout his minor league career, he was someone that had a K/9 of 10 or higher, more often than not it being higher than 10.
He gets to face a team in the Rockies that has struck out more than 25% of the time this season to righties and has struck out more than 31% of the time over the last week. This projected lineup for the Rockies today has 6 guys in it who have K rates over 23% to righties over the last 30 days. I’m chasing a ceiling-type game here for the Mets young righty.
The other pitcher I have an interest in today will be Tyler Phillips of the Phillies. He was masterful in his big league debut and he gets a tasty matchup today vs. Oakland. The quartet of Grayson Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Luis Gil, and Nathan Eovaldi are all in play, I just think they have a more floor-type game due to the matchups they face today.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Mitch Spense
The Philadelphia Phillies are heading into the All-Star Break healthy and that should scare the rest of baseball. This week they got both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper back. There is also the very real possibility that JT Realmuto will make his return either today or tomorrow. That will make one of the most feared lineups in baseball, whole again.
They get a great matchup today vs. a pitcher in Mitch Spense that plays right into the wheelhouse of the Phillies, lefty power. Over the last 30 days, lefties have a .283 ISO and a .397 wOBA vs. Spence. Lefties also have a .472 slugging % vs. him. The heart and soul of this Phillies lineup is lefty and with what I plan on spending on pitching today, I should be able to afford the meat of this lineup.
Core Bats: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh
Secondary Bats: Treat Turner, Alec Bohm
Value Bats: Johan Rojas, Garrett Stubbs
Texas Ranger vs. Spencer Arrighetti
If we take out Spencer Arrighetti’s game against the Rockies (Reason A why I’m on Christian Scott), we can see a pitcher who has really struggled. He’s given up 7 ER to the Tigers and 6 to the Blue Jays. He’s someone that has plenty of blow-up games under his belt and I think he has another one today vs. a very competent Texas Rangers’ lineup. Of the teams playing today, the Rangers have scored the third most runs of any team over the last week.
They also line up really well today with Arrighetti. Arrighetti really struggles vs. lefties (vs. righties too). They have a .300 ISO and a .469 wOBA vs. him over the last month. They also have an OPS over 1.000 vs. him this year. I’m going to be lock and loading all the lefties I can here.
Core Bats: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nate Lowe
Secondary Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia
Value Bats: Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, Travis Jankowski
Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. Ryan Feltner, Orioles vs. Luis Gil, and Guardians vs. Zack Littell. Nats vs. Dallas Keuchel also very much in play!
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