Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Triple Play Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. Due to the upcoming All-Star Break, we have the largest slate of games on a Thursday since the opening few weeks of the season. That means we have meaningful baseball during the day and at night. Which is good news for us as our bets have been cooking in these articles. For DFS, we’re going to highlight the night slate as that has 7 games to choose from vice the 4 games on the early card.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
NEW YORK METS vs WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The Mets have won the first two games in their series with Washington and look for a sweep today when they send LHP David Peterson to the mound. The Nationals are struggling their way into the All Star break as they’ve lost 4 in a row and are just 4-12 in their last 16 games. In particular, they’ve struggled against their counterparts from the north as the Mets are 7-2 against Washington this season.
And then there’s the pitching matchup as the Nationals hand the ball to LHP Mackenzie Gore. He’s 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA against the Mets in two starts this season. And he’s seemed to have hit a wall as his ERA since June 1st is 5.35 and opponents are batting 0.297 against him. Prior to that point, he had a 2.84 ERA with opponents batting just 0.252 off him. The Mets in particular, are batting 0.308 off Gore.
As for Peterson, the Mets have won 6 straight with him on the bump. He’s allowed more than 2 ER’s in only one start this year. Finally, the Mets are 6-2 on Thursday’s while the Nats are just 2-6. This is a good matchup for the Metropolitans and I foresee the brooms coming out today in the Big Apple.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -120 vs TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Blue Jays bats awakened last night as they scored seven runs off Giants SP Logan Webb enroute to a 10-6 victory in San Fran. And that’s actually good news for the Giants as Toronto averages just 2 runs per game following a game where they scored 9 runs or more. More importantly, they’re just 3-7 in such games following a big offensive outburst.
But the primary reason for this wager is that SP Kevin Gausman returns to San Francisco since his decision to leave the Giants for the Blue Jays back in 2021. And who knows him better than the SF organization. They’re also getting to face Gausman at a low point as the Jays are just 2-5 in his last 7 games in which he has a 5.27 ERA.
Finally, the Jays are just 21-26 on the road while the Giants are 26-20 at home. And Toronto has won just 4 series on the road all year, with two of those being against the bottom dwellers of the league in the White Sox and Athletics. Based on the trends, and the Blue Jays struggles after a big game, I like the Giants to win the rubber game in their series today.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -130 vs CHICAGO CUBS
The Cubs did the unthinkable last night and that’s pitching a shutout against the Baltimore Orioles. That’s because Baltimore has been shutout just once this year which was all the way back on May 1st against Luis Gil and the Yankees. The O’s lineup leads the league in runs per game, homeruns, slugging and OPS. And although it’s such a small sample size, the O’s don’t like being shut down and often bounce back with authority. In the four games they scored 1 run or less, the O’s have bounced back with 21 runs in the next game for an average of 5.5 r/gm.
The Cubs will look to LHP Justin Steele today to complete the sweep of the O’s. And he’s coming off his best game of the year when he threw a complete game against the Angels. But Baltimore has found success against LHP’s this year going 14-11 against them SU. They are also 5th in batting average and 2nd in slugging against LHP’s. Add to that the Cubs are just 4-9 in Steele’s starts and have averaged just 4 total runs per game in his starts.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
YANDY DIAZ over 1.5 total bases (-110 BET365)
Yandy Diaz has a career 0.400 batting average against Yankees SP Nestor Cortes. But what’s most important to me is that he’s struck out just twice in 31 at-bats off Cortes. So he puts the ball in play often which drives up his chances of getting a hit. And he’s in pretty good form of late, with six hits in his last four games.
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 6:05PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:05pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 7.
Top Pitchers to Target:
TANNER HOUCK ($9500 DK):
Houck has the best matchup on the slate facing the Oakland A’s tonight in Beantown. While he’s struggled in his last 2 starts, he should be able to find some success today challenging the A’s bats. That’s because Oakland is 28th in batting, 24th in OPS and 25th in wOBA this season. They also strikeout at the 2nd highest rate in baseball at 26.2%. And surprisingly enough, Houck’s 2.68 ERA, which is good for 6th in the MLB, is met with a 2.69 FIP. This shows his pitching numbers is on par with his overall performance. So expect him to right the ship tonight and put together a solid outing against OAK.
LUIS CASTILLO ($9200 DK):
Luis Castillo has had an underwhelming year to date, posting a 7-9 record for the 1st place Mariners. But today, he gets a team he has dominated in recent years and I’m all-in on it. In 6 starts in a Mariners uniform, Castillo has 45 K’s against the Angels including two games of double digit strikeouts. He also carries a 3-1 record with a 3.38 ERA against the Halo’s. And he’s getting them at a good time as LAA is hitting just 0.213 in the month of July and has scored just 28 runs which is tied for 2nd worst in the MLB.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: MAX FRIED ($8800 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
ALBERT SUAREZ ($6900 DK)
Suarez has two consecutive quality starts for the O’s in which he racked up 8 K’s and posted a 2-0 record with a 1.50 ERA. And today he faces the Cubs who are trying to find their identity on offense. Over the past 2 weeks they are batting just 0.236 and striking out at a 26.3% clip. Seeing them firsthand, their approach at the plate is to attack early which can lead to some success, particularly against strike throwers, but can also lead to hitting in pitchers counts. I expect the Orioles to adjust their game plan tonight especially after seeing the Cubs put up 22 hits in the first two games of this series. So with that in mind, combined with Suarez’s recent form and his price today, he fits my profile as a good value play.
HONORABLE MENTION: SHANE BAZ ($7200 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
ASTROS:
MARINERS:
Other Stacks to Consider: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, LA DODGERS
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