Allan Fabrykant 
PEREIRA VS PROCHAZKA II
After last week’s crazy action, we have yet another card that lost its main event only to be resurrected with arguably better fights, and now, for International Fight Week, we have been gifted with an incredible rematch for the main event and an equally spectacular co-main. We have 13 action-packed fights, with two fighters fighting for the light heavyweight title. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 303 Pereira vs Prochazka II.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes
This is a very close matchup but the fact that you can get Ortega at plus money again is a simple case of the books not learning their lesson. Brian burned the books earlier this year with an upset submission victory over Yair Rodriguez and now with both fighters coming in on short notice, Brian has the ability to burn the books for a second time this year.
A few important notes: Brian Ortega is one of the most impressive BJJ artists in the UFC, his fundamentals are unbelievable and his dexterity and skill set are arguably the best in the UFC (ie his flying triangle in his open workout). Furthermore, out of his three career losses, all three came against UFC Champions (Volk, Yair, Holloway). Ortega has bullied top fighters in their prime and the fact that he is coming in as an underdog against a largely unproven fighter is shocking.
We know Brian’s weakness, he takes a lot of damage to find the submission BUT he can take the hits and find the finish. Against a fighter like Lopes, I don’t think he has what it takes to compete with Ortega on the mat and I think that’s where this fight will ultimately be decided. Lock in Ortega in this spot.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Brian Ortega SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs Antonio Trocoli
Shara Bullet is one scary fighter to compete against. I have never seen a fighter with so few holes in his striking game. His takedown defence could use a little work, but his striking technique is picture-perfect.
No offense to Trocoli but he really does not seem like the type of fighter who will give Shara Bullet a run for his money. Trocoli is on a four-fight win streak after bouncing back from a three-fight losing streak on the regional scene, is making his UFC debut and has not fought since 2021 after having three fights fall through (two of which he pulled out of), the third scheduled for last weekend against Aliskerov but rebooked so Aliskerov could take tonight’s main event. Trocoli has not fought anyone near the calibre of Magomedov and I think this will be a very quick night at the office.
Trocoli will either be swarmed with pressure by Magomedov’s strikes or go down early to one of his brutal shots, as we have seen 10 times out of Magomedov’s 12-0-0 career.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sharabutdin Magomedov by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Payton Talbott vs Yanis Ghemmouri
Talbott has successfully proved me wrong. After a dominant first round and a second round KO against rising star Cameron Saaiman, I am fully confident that he has the skillset to put away Ghemmouri. Talbott currently has a 8-0 record, an insane 8.05 Significant Strikes per Minute rate over his three fights under UFC and the DWCS, where as Ghemmouri is not even in the same ballpark at 2.42
That alone should pull people away from Ghemmouri but there are more reasons to favor Talbott here. For example, Ghemmouri has only had faced a lot of cans throughout his career, including fighting someone making their professional debut when he was already 7-1-0. In his first real competition, his UFC debut against William Gomis, he got outstruck in every round, went 0-4 on takedowns and was ultimately stopped with a clean body kick in the third round after being thoroughly beat down for over 12 minutes.
Talbott has the skillset, has the experience and his opponent doesn’t. He will impress tonight in a big way against Ghemmouri.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sergei Pavlovich FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka II
This was the matchup that saved the card. After losing the return of Mystic Mac, it seemed as though International Fight Week was in shambles but with this title rematch the UFC successfully saved UFC 303 and arguably improved upon it.
In their first matchup, Pereira found the second round knockout after an arguably competitive first. Prochazka’s unorthodox striking style definitely does cause problems for fighters as they try to figure out how to adjust to his unique strikes and more often than not, it leads to Prochazka getting an insurmountable advantage in his fights. However, in their first matchup, Pereira figured him out. He got his timing, understood his style and put him out, making the mid-fight adjustments that were necessary to win the fight.
Not to mention, his kickboxing pedigree is only matched by Israel Adesanya and even then, Pereira had his number in the kickboxing ring, defeating him multiple times including once by KO.
Given Pereira’s incredibly high striking skillset and his understanding of Prochazka’s fighting style from their first matchup, gives Pereira a big advantage in his second meeting. Furthrmore, Pereira has clearly worked on his grappling and Jiu-Jitsu, meaning that Prochazka will struggle to get the takedown he found in the first fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alex Pereira SECOND-ROUND KO
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (Double Chance KO/Decision) -190
Sergei Pavlovich -250
Rinat Fakhretdinov (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -190
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Brian Ortega Moneyline -188
