Allan Fabrykant 
PEREZ V TAIRA
We had some rocky news ahead of UFC 303 and International Fight Week. As we were gearing up for the big show, we lost 3 highly anticipated fights but got some amazing matchups in their place. Ahead of the big UFC 303 card, we have another Vegas Fight Night card coming your way! We have 11 fights locked and loaded, with the return of former title challenger Alex Perez. We’ve got some fantastic matchups that will end with two fighters looking to make push for the top 5 in the flyweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 93 Perez vs Taira.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Miles Johns vs Douglas Silva de Andrade
For tonight’s value play I’m going all the way to the co-main event where Douglas Silva de Andrade, a boxer and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, is going up against wrestler Miles Johns.
Throughout his whole time in the UFC I have not been impressed by Johns with many low output decision wins where he just dominated on control time. Andrade on the other hand has been a very exciting fighter who always pushes the pace and has had some exciting finishes, including in his Fight of the Night performance against Sergey Morozov back in 2022.
Despite Andrade being much older than Johns, we will find in this fight that it’s Andrade who is pushing the pace and the action for all 15-minutes and I think given that Johns has a disadvantage with reach he will struggle to get a hold of Andrade and bring him to the ground. Furthermore, in Andrade’s last fight he fought a wrestler, Cody Stamann who fights very similarly to Johns, in that fight Andrade was able to turn away 4 of 5 takedown attempts from Stamann and secure a decision win.
I think we could see something similar in this fight where Andrade out-strikes Johns at a heavy pace while avoiding the takedown attempts for 15 minutes.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Douglas Silva de Andrade UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Asu Almabaev vs Jose Johnson
Almabaev, the submission specialist, will be competing in his third fight in the UFC Octagon and after two stellar performance which saw him get a second round submission in his first fight and nine takedowns in his second fight he is facing off against Jose Johnson, a 16-8 fighter who has shown ZERO ability to defend any sort of takedown.
Johnson’s numbers almost seem surreal in the takedown department. Throughout his career he has been taken down at will by every opponent he has fought against in the UFC and Dana White’s Contender Series. Over just those four fights he has amassed a 36% takedown defense rate and has allowed 24 takedowns with an average of six takedowns allowed per fight.
This numbers simply won’t be good enough against a grappler like Almabaev who has averaged 7.12 takedowns/15 minutes throughout his short UFC career. Ultimately, I see this fight going one of two ways, either Almabaev secures a submission victory early in the fight, or he ragdolls Jose Johnson taking him down as much as he can with an insane amount of control time to secure a decision win. Either way, this fight should be an absolute cake walk for Almabaev.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Asu Almabaev by FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Jeka Saragih vs Westin Wilson
Saragih is an absolute savage and will be riding high after coming off of a BIG first round KO in November of last year, despite coming into the fight, he was a +390 underdog. Saragih’s opponent tonight, Westin Wilson has yet to win a UFC fight over two attempts, getting finished in the first round on both occasions.
Throughout his career, Wilson had never been two impressive and following a three fight win streak, with each win coming via Submission, he was given his shot in the UFC. Given his struggles in the octagon, I can see the UFC parting ways with Wilson if he does not produce a solid performance here.
Wilson has relied on takedowns thought his career and unfortunately for him, the Kung Fu trained Saragih is a much stronger, faster and more technically sound fighter who holds a 100% takedown accuracy rate and a 66% takedown defense rate (over both his UFC fights and Road to the UFC fights).
With such a mismatch in skillset, Saragih should have no problem dispatching his opponent early in the fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jeka Saragih FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira
Former title challenger, Alex Perez is on an extremely quick turnaround time here as he headlined a UFC card, less than two months ago. In that fight, Perez had a strong showing. After a slow first round, Perez unleashed a flurry of punches to put out the Brazilian flyweight. With only 22 significant strikes absorbed, Perez is more than ready to accept this fight on a quick turnaround.
Unfortunately for Perez, his opponent tonight Taira, is an insanely talented grappler with two submission wins through the his first five UFC fights. Taira specializes in armbars and triangles and despite the fact that this is his first fight in 2024. He has been very active during his short UFC career with three fights in 2023 and two fights in 2022.
Taira is a tricky grappler to deal with and as we saw in Perez’s three fights before his most recent win, he struggles immensely against strong grapplers. Mokaev grappled through the fight and squeaked out a decision win, Pantoja quickly submitted Perez after taking him to ground in their fight and Figueredo choked out Perez from bottom guard.
After facing no takedown attempts from Matheus Nicolau, I am not confident in Perez’s ability to avoid Taira’s impressive grappling game. As such, I can see this fight being a 25-minute grapple fest where Taira comes out on top, or Taira gets a hold of Perez early and secures a submission in rounds one or two.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Tatsuro Taira SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Jeka Saragih (Double Chance KO/Decision) -280
Nate Maness (Double Chance KO/Decision) -375
Asu Almabaev (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -350
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Tatsuro Taira (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -155
- Josephine Knutsson to win via Decision -105
