Allan Fabrykant 
BARBOZA V MURPHY
After watching another classic Derrick Lewis performance last week in St. Louis. We are back in the heart of UFC, Las Vegas, for tonight’s fight night action. This card will feature 12 fights, ending with a bout between two fighters looking to break into the top 10 of the featherweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 92 Barboza vs Murphy.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Luana Pinheiro vs Angela Hill
This one was very tough to pick as the fight itself is very close. However, I can’t ignore the value of Pinheiro in this spot. Prior to her last fight, Pinheiro was seen as a rising star in the women’s strawweight division and in her last fight against Amanda Ribas, her talent was very evident.
In my opinion, Pinheiro actually took the first round despite coming in as a clear underdog to Ribas, and her eventual loss says more about Ribas’ qualities as a competitor than Pinheiro’s ability.
Pinheiro is an extremely technical fighter who uses a range of strikes to target her opponents. Even though she does not strike at the same pace as Hill, her numbers are not that far behind. She even avoids strikes better than Hill, with a higher Strike defence percentage (62% vs 61%) and a lower Strike Absorption per Minute rate (4.38 vs 4.49). Their biggest statistical difference comes in the grappling department, where Pinheiro is much better.
In this fight, Hill will do everything to avoid the ground, and I think there will come a point in the fight where the pressure from Pinheiro will be too much, and Hill will get taken down en route to a decision win.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Luana Pinheiro UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Adrian Yanez vs Vinicius Salvador
Both fighters are coming into this matchup with losses in their last two fights. With Yanez getting KOd by both Rob Font and Jonthan Martinez while Salvador lost decisions to Vitor Altamariano and CJ Vergara. Right off the bat, the difference in schedule strength is very apparent. Yanez has faced much tougher competition with Salvador dropping his only two fights in the UFC and not showing any skills to prove that he should remain in the UFC.
Yanez, on the other hand, had a nine-fight winning streak before his back-to-back losses, and in this matchup, he is in a very good position to secure a quick finish over the inexperienced Salvador.
Both fighters rely heavily on their striking game, so I can see this fight turning into an absolute slugfest. In that case, Yanez will have a clear advantage since he is the more technical striker and packs a lot of power in his punches.
There is a chance that Salvador keeps up with Yanez at first and wanes as the fight goes on. Given that, there is a chance we could see a late finish or decision win from Yanez.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Adrian Yanez by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible THIRD-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Abus Magomedov vs Warlley Alves
Both Magomedov and Alves have struggled to secure wins recently, with Magomedov losing his last two and Alves losing four of his last five fights.
Both Magomedov and Alves have similar fighting styles, with heavy striking and the odd takedown attempt. They are also relatively statistically close, with Magomedov striking a little more and Alves getting more takedowns per 15. However, this is where the similarities begin to fade.
Alves has had a much weaker strength of schedule compared to Magomedov. When he faced tougher competition like Ikram Aliskerov, Alves was beaten down and finished with a flying knee two minutes into the first round. In his last few fights, Alves looked slow, sluggish and unfocused.
Magomedov, on the other hand, has faced much tougher competition in his UFC career, with his recent two losses coming against serious competitors in Sean Strickland (main event) and Caio Borralho. Before those two losses, Magomedov had a record of 11-1-1 over his last 13 fights, and this showed that he belonged in the UFC. His power and technique are much better than Alves’, and I can see him putting this fight away early, similar to Aliskerov’s. With patience and high pressure.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Abus Magomedov FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Edson Barboza vs Lerone Murphy
Edson Barboza has had an extremely impressive UFC career, with this being their 30th fight in the organization. Many are counting him out in tonight’s bout against the undefeated Lerone Murphy, but I think those who do are making a big mistake. Barboza is not done yet and has a lot left in the tank. We saw Barboza go perfect in 2023 with wins over Sodiq Yusuff, and Billy Q. Barboza was the underdog on both occasions and still pulled off the upset win.
Tonight, he will secure yet another upset win and put the first loss on Lerone Murphy’s record. Despite the fact that he has yet to lose a fight, he has not been impressive in his time in the octagon, with four of his six fights ending via decision and two very close calls that could have taken away his perfect record.
I also see Barboza as a terrible matchup for Murphy, who likes to keep fights at a steady pace and ease into a rhythm. Barboza, on the other hand, likes to push the action and fight aggressively. Barboza is also a very tricky fighter and could pose some real problems for Murphy with spinning strikes.
At 38 years old, Barboza is proving to his detractors that his time in the spotlight is not over yet, and with a win here tonight, he will see himself back in the top 10 of the featherweight division.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Edson Barboza FOURTH-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Oumar Sy -550
Adrian Yanez (Double Chance KO/DEC) -350
Piera Rodriguez by Decision +110
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Vanessa Demopoulos vs Emily Ducote to go the Distance -425
- Themba Gorimbo -150
