Dave Gloeckner 
Happy Mother’s Day to all the wonderful moms out there. And as fathers and sons, make sure you take care of those great women in your life today. They are the rocks that built us. Speaking of building, we have some MLB games today that can help us build our bankroll in the betting and DFS market.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
TEXAS RANGERS -150 at COLORADO ROCKIES
We’ve had a few surprising series results this week. And Colorado winning the first two games in their series with Texas is up there with the others. However, I’m backing the Rangers today to avoid a sweep at the hands of the team with the 2nd worst record in baseball. First of all, this is Colorado’s first multiple game win streak of the season. In fact, it’s their first series they’ve won all year. And in doing so, they’ve held a very prolific Rangers offense to just 5 runs in two games. It’s just not sustainable and I look for the Rangers to come out swinging today.
Add to that the Rockies are just 1-6 on Sundays and 3-11 in day games. Back the Rangers today to avoid a sweep at the hands of Colorado.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS -130 at SAN DIEGO PADRES
The Dodgers and Padres have split the first two games of their series in San Diego. But the Padres have mustered just 2 runs in those games as their offense has been completely silenced by Dodgers pitching. Today, LA hands the ball to Walker Buehler who is getting his 2nd start of the season after missing all of 2023 with an elbow injury. He fared decently in his first outing, allowing 3 runs over 4 innings. But what was noticeable was that he settled in after the 2nd inning and retired 7 of the last 8 batters he faced. So nerves, and some rust, obviously led to some early runs for Miami against Buehler. I expect his to be sharper today, and attack a lineup that isn’t producing.
I also look at Yu Darvish who has a SIERA (4.05) that is almost 1.5 runs higher than his ERA (2.94). He’s seen the Dodgers twice this season as has yet to make it past the 5th inning because of high pitch counts. So their familiar with Darvish and will look to work deep counts and try to get some early runs on the board to help Buehler pitch from ahead. Lastly, the Dodgers are 11-4 as road favorites this year.
DOG OF THE DAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +140 vs CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Do you know what team has the longest current winning streak in the MLB? It’s none other than your Chicago White Sox! Winners of four in a row, they go for a four-game sweep today against Cleveland. Something has started to click for the White Sox as they have strung together several competitive series in a row. To me, it coincides with the addition of Tommy Pham to their lineup. Since his 2024 debut in late April, Chicago is 9-5 in games he’s played.
Then you look at what Cleveland has to offer today and it’s their worst SP in Logan Allen. His 6.41 ERA is the 3rd highest of qualified pitchers on the board today. And he’s allowed the most HR’s of any pitcher throwing today with 9. While White Sox SP Mike Soroka isn’t much better, 6.34 ERA, he has allowed 3 ER’s or less in three straight starts.
Sweeping a four game series is hard. But at this number, there is value in the Sox. And after all, we bet numbers here at the Sweet Spot so I’ll back the improbable to bring home a nice profit and get the sweep.
PLAYER PROPS
LUIS GIL over 6.5 K’s (+115 DK)
Luis Gil has gone over this number twice this season. With one of those games being against his opponent today in the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have the 8th highest K rate in baseball and send many RH to the plate. That’s good for Gil who has struck out 27 right handed batters in 74 at-bats.
MACKENZIE GORE over 6.5 K’s (-120 DK)
The Red Sox are one of the biggest mysteries in baseball. They have 12 games where they scored 1 run or less. But they have 8 games with 8 runs or more including a 17 run outburst against the Cubs. But one thing is for sure, they strike out a lot. They are 3rd on the season with a 25.8% K rate. And that goes up to 1st when facing LHP’s as their K rate climbs to 29.8%.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – WILLI CASTRO over 0.5 HR’s (+600 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Castro has 1 home run this week and is hitting fly balls at a 40% clip. He also has Alek Manoah in his book, with a homer in 4 at-bats. Manoah is susceptible to the HR so at +600 this looks like one of the better homer values on the board today.
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
ZACK WHEELER ($11,500 DK):
Wheeler is coming off his best start of the season where he struck out 11 batters and allowed 0 ER’s in 7 innings against the Giants. His 1.64 ERA is good for 3rd in the MLB. And his 63 K’s are also 3rd best trailing Tyler Glasnow and Garret Crochet. Today’s opponent, the Miami Marlins, are just 26th in batting average and 29th in wRC+. And they’ve managed just 1 run off Phillies SP’s in the first two games of this series. Price is steep but Wheeler has potential for a 30+ DK point performance today.
LUIS GIL ($9300 DK):
The Yankees SP has one of the highest K rates on the board at 29.4%. And he faces a free swinging Tampa Bay team that has the 8th highest strikeout rate in the league at 23.9%. One of Gil’s issues has been the walks, as he’s issued 24 in 7 games. But Tampa is just 20th in the MLB in walk rate at 8.3%. Add to that Gil faced the Rays once this season and had his best outing, scoring 31.8 DK points and registering 9 K’s. I think this is a good spot for the Yankees SP to rack up points today in the Sunshine State.
BAILEY OBER ($7600 DK):
Ober started the year with an absolute dud, allowing 9 runs in 1.1 innings. But since then, he’s allowed just 10 runs total in 6 starts. He’s produced over 10 DK points in each outing, with four of those going for 18.9 points or more. Today he gets the Blue Jays who are batting just 0.234 on the season (21st in baseball). The Jays are sitting in last in the AL East and it’s been primarily due to their offensive woes as they have scored the 2nd least runs in the American League.
Value Pitchers to Target:
BRAXTON GARRETT ($6200 DK)
I don’t like going against the Phillies. But there is value today in Garrett who is making his 2024 debut. First off, the Phillies main power comes from the left side so using an LHP against them can be a productive play. Secondly, Garrett was a very good pitcher for the Marlins last season as he put up a 9-7 record and a 3.66 ERA across 30 starts. His K rate is well above the line we look to attack (23.7%) which just adds to the potential value here.
Top Stacks to Target:
TWINS:
The Jays are sending out Alec Manoah to the mound today and that’s good news for Twins batters. Manoah hasn’t been the same pitcher he was when getting an All Star selection back in 2022. He ended 2023 with a 5.87 ERA and looked like the same pitcher in his 2024 debut when he allowed 6 ER’s to the Nationals. I’m looking at a stack with Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Carlos Correa and Carlos Santana.
BREWERS:
PIRATES:
The Pirates are riding a wave of emotions as their young star, Paul Skenes, arrives to the big league team and debuted yesterday. In doing so, they scored 10 runs against the Cubs and got a thrilling win. I’ll ride that momentum today as the Pirates face Kyle Hendricks and his 12.00 ERA. I’ll look at Andrew McCutchen, ONeil Cruz, Connor Joe and Brian Reynolds. A cheap value player I also like is Rowdy Tellez.
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