Jared Levitt 
Happy Hump Day! Today we have a split slate of games. I’ll be focused on the main slate of MLB DFS starting at 6:35 pm EST. This is a 7-game slate that brings us some really solid starting pitching. The darling of the winter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the hill in a good matchup, as well as his countrymate Shota Imanga. Both guys have good matchups and will be in my player pool. We also have some solid spots for bats.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9.6k on DK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
After starting out his MLB career with a clunker vs. San Diego, Yamamoto has started to settle down. He’s coming off the best outing of his career against the Washington Nationals that saw him go 6 innings without giving up a run and striking out 7. That outing lowered his ERA to 3.54 and his xFIP to 2.63. I was originally avoiding him as I was worried about his transition to the Majors. Now that he’s throwing gems, I’m going to start using him.
He gets a decent matchup today vs. a Diamondbacks team that hasn’t been great vs. righties. Against righties this season, the Dbacks have just a .289 wOBA and an ISO of .123. While they have some potent bats, this lineup is really struggling right now and one that we can take advantage of.
Roddery Munoz ($6.5k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Miami Marlins may have a hidden gem in Roddery Munoz. After being called up as an extra for a doubleheader, Munoz went on to throw a gem in his major league debut vs. Chicago. He went on to throw 5 innings of work while striking out 7. In that outing, he allowed just 2 runners to score against a very formidable opponent in the Cubbies. Munoz also did a great job of limiting hard contact and flyballs.
The Cubs only had a 20% hard-hit rate in that game, as well as a 50% groundball rate. If Munoz can keep up with those percentages vs. the Rockies today, he’ll have another strong outing. Thankfully, this game is in the more pitcher-friendly LoanDepot Park. Munoz is a solid value play today.
Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Shota Imanaga vs. the Mets, Justin Verlander vs. the Guardians, and Corbin Burnes vs. the Yankees.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Houston Astros vs. Triston McKenzie
It seems like all the Astros needed to wake their bats up was a trip to Mexico City. After putting up 20 runs in the 2-game set vs. the Rockies, the Astros returned home yesterday and still up another 20 runs. They should continue with the offensive onslaught today vs. Triston McKenzie. Although McKenzie has pitched better in his last 2 outings, he’s still someone who gives up way too much contact and way too many fly balls.
Over the last month, he’s given up a 53% flyball rate and a nearly 80% contact rate. Against a team that all of a sudden is hitting the ball well, that could lead to a lot of trouble for McKenzie. Against McKenzie, we want to focus on the lefties. They have a significantly higher slugging % and wOBA vs. him.
That will lead me automatically to guys like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Both guys are starting to hit the ball a bit better than early on as they each have multiple homers over the last week. Tuckers leads the way with a 1.076 OPS over the last week and should be primed to continue to roll in this matchup vs. McKenzie today.
He’s not a lefty, but Jose Altuve is also starting to hit the ball well. Over the last week, he has 2 homers and 3 barrels and has also scored 5 runs. Other guys I’ll look to add in this stack today will be Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena, and Jon Singleton. At just $2.6k, Singleton will be a great value play for a team expected to score close to 5 runs today.
Miami Marlins vs. Dakota Hudson
Dakota Hudson is not off to a good start in his new home. After really struggling with the Cardinals last year, it’s more of the same this season for Hudson. Through 5 starts, Hudson has a 6.57 ERA and an xFIP of 5.06. He’s now given up 15 ER over his last 3 starts and has allowed a homer in each.
Over those 3 starts, he’s allowed 12 walks compared to just 10 K’s. You know you’re struggling when you have more walks allowed than strikeouts. Hitters have been teeing off on him all season as they have a combined 90% medium-hard hit rate. I’m not going to be overly worried about splits here as both sides of the plate have been hitting him about the same.
There are a handful of bats that I’m interested in here. First, I’ll look to Luis Arraez. He appears to have his mojo back as he has 8 hits in his last 20 AB. He’s not someone that we can really chase power with, but he gets on base quite a bit and that’s something that is extremely important as well. After him, I’ll look to Jazz Chisholm. The former MLB the Show cover boy is hitting the ball well right now too. He has 2 homers over the last week and 6 RBI. He’s someone who has sky-high potential and can easily put up a big number vs. Hudson today.
After those 2, I’ll look to the Marlins for value. Someone like Vidal Brujan is only $2.5k tonight but is hitting .500 over the last week. Jesus Sanchez is also cheap and has some pop in his bat. The Marlins are risky, but they can put up some runs today vs. Hudson.
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Rangers vs. Trevor Williams, Cubs vs. Jose Butto, and Nats vs. Andrew Heaney.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
