Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily and with the Sweet Spot. The baseball action is heating up and so is the weather as we’re going to see 90 degrees tomorrow on the East Coast. Speaking of hot, my articles this week (Mon & Thursday) have given out five game winners as I’m 5-1 overall. My only loss was betting the White Sox and it looks like I was just a few days early on them as they put together their first win streak of the season last night. But enough of that, let’s get moving onto today’s card and see what value is out there in the betting and DFS market.
1000 AM UPDATE: All DFS Plays are posted. Bets will be posted by 11AM.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
TAMPA BAY RAYS -145 at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
First off, this line feels like a trap. But the difference in quality is so large that I’m willing to bite the bait. As shown in the DFS write up below, Zack Littell has good road and day game splits. Add to that the White Sox are 1-11 in day games and are 0-4 on Sundays.
HOUSTON ASTROS -205 at COLORADO ROCKIES
Framber Valdez returns from a 3-week stint on the IL. He started this year in good form, posting a 2.19 ERA in his two starts. The one noticeable difference this year is that he’s increased the usage of this change-up from 14% in 2023 to 25% this year. And it’s been batted around as hitters have a 0.415 BA against that offering. Good news is that Colorado has a negative weighted runs above average against the changeup. And they are 29th against the curveball, which is his best pitch.
Playing in Mexico City means fly balls turn into home runs. While just two starts, Valdez leads the league in GB% at a ridiculous 71.4% rate. And he’s only allowing 6.4% fly balls. So let’s ride the Astros ace today in his return to action. Because of the altitude and potential for crooked numbers, you could also consider Houston -2.5 runs at -115. I’ll just stay on the ML.
DOG OF THE DAY: PITTSBURGH PIRATES +100 at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
The Pirates have been competitive in the city by the bay as they split the first two games of their series with the Giants. Both teams have seen quality starting pitching. As for the Bucs, their combination of Quinn Priester and Martin Perez combined for 12 shut out innings. And today, they roll out possibly their best arm in Jared Jones. The rookie pitcher leads all pitchers on today’s card with a 34.8% K rate. His fastball velocity can top 100 mph and is in the 95th percentile of all starters in baseball. Even more impressive is his whiff rate, 41.2%, which is top 3 in the majors.
The Pirates will have to find ways to score runs against Giants SP Keaton Winn. But the gap in arm quality sits on Pittsburgh’s side. And we’re getting plus money with the better pitcher and similar offense.
PLAYER PROPS
TARIK SKUBAL over 6.5 K’s (-105 DK)
This number is low but for a good reason. The Royals do not strike out a lot, posting the 2nd lowest K rate in baseball at 18.3%. But they do strike out against Skubal as Garcia has 3 K’s in 4 at-bats and Perez has 8 K’s in 18 at-bats. And it looks as if my pre-season Cy Young pick is rounding into form as he has struck out 9 in two of his last 4 starts.
LANCE LYNN under 5.5 K’s (-120 DK)
The Mets strike out rate is 7th lowest in the Majors at 20%. Lynn’s numbers have dropped this year to 22% and is around 50th percentile in whiff rate. This is coming from a pitcher with a career 25% K rate and has been in the top 30% in whiff rate most of his career. I think the Mets can put up some runs today and get Lynn out of the game early. In doing so, they’ll also cash this K prop for us.
MOOKIE BETS over 0.5 Runs Scored (-115 DK)
This was a prop that we played successfully on many occasions last year. Yet it’s the first time we’re breaking it out this year. But have no fear, as we see what Mookie once again doing and ready to strike this one often. Betts leads the league in runs scored with 29 and has scored a run in 4 straight games. Plus, he has an OBP of 0.489, meaning he’s getting on base almost once out of every two plate appearances. If he does that, there should be stolen bases to be had as Gausman has allowed the 2nd most steals by any SP since 2019.
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – PETE ALONSO over 0.5 HRs (+380 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Pete Alonso leads the Mets in homers with 8. He also has the highest FB rate on the team at 50%. And we’ve captured Lance Lynn’s propensity to allow HR’s in the DFS write-up below.
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
TARIK SKUBAL ($10,000 DK):
He’s the top pitcher on the board but it’s for good reason. He has a 1.82 ERA and a 31.3% K rate. He also has scored at least 18.1 DK points in every outing (5) this year. Kansas City’s numbers against lefties have them ranked 18th in OPS, 21st in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+. And he’s had success against some of KC’s top bats as Bobby Witt is just 1 for 13 in his career off Skubal and Maikel Garcia is 0 for 4.
ZACK LITTELL ($8700 DK):
The White Sox are going for a sweep today against the Rays. While that in and of itself is surprising, the more eye-opening fact is that they’ve scored 17 runs in two games against Tampa. They had scored a total of 18 runs in their previous 8 games. Bring in Zack Littell to put out the fire burning in Chicago as the Rays RHP has an impressive 1.93 road ERA. Even more imposing is his ERA during the day, which is 1.17. And he’s up against a team that despite the recent success, still ranks last in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. They also strike out 24.2% of the time which is 7th highest in the MLB.
ALBERT SUAREZ ($8200 DK):
The O’s have found another gem in their minor league system this time in the pitching department. Ok, maybe this one isn’t necessarily a home grown young star. But at 34, Albert Suarez hasn’t pitched in the Majors in 7 seasons. And yet he’s made two starts with Baltimore and yet to let up a run over 11.1 innings of work. And today, he gets to face an Athletics team that was just shutout yesterday by Cole Irvin and two O’s relievers. Oakland has the 2nd highest K rate (28.4%) against RHP’s and the lowest batting average (0.200). Let’s see what additional magic Suarez has in his right arm today as he gets a plus matchup once again.
BRYCE ELDER ($8200 DK):
We still don’t know which Bryce Elder is pitching for the Braves in 2024. Is it the 2022 version, which went 9-2 with a 3.17 ERA. Or the 2nd half of 2023 version, who faded down the stretch posting a 5.68 ERA in September and a 20.25 ERA in the playoffs. Since it’s early in the year, and he’s coming in fresh, I’m banking on the good Bryce Elder today. He doesn’t overpower hitters but keeps the ball down and gets a high percentage of ground balls. That should bode well against a Guardians team that is aggressive at the plate as they are 27th in baseball in walk rate.
Value Pitchers to Target:
BEN LIVELY ($6500 DK): It’s a small sample size, but Ben Lively has dazzled in his first two games this year. He has a 33.3% K rate and batters are hitting just 0.196 off him. He’s allowed just 1 walk, sporting a 2.4% BB rate which is in the 96th percentile in baseball. But again, just two starts and both were against Boston who is either hot (17 runs yesterday) or ice cold (8 games scoring 1 run or less). So today he’ll step up in class to face the best lineup in baseball. But Guardians pitching has done a decent job against the Braves bats so far allowing just 8 runs in two games. The value, plus a projected low ownership, is good for someone who flashes the K rate that Lively has had to date.
TOBIAS MYERS ($7000 DK): The Brewers young star is being given the opportunity to take the mound for a 2nd straight start due to several injuries in the rotation. He fared well in his first career start, allowing just 1 ER to the Pirates over 5 innings of work. He mixed in four pitches (cutter, fastball, curve and slider) with his off-speed offerings having the most success (batters had a 0.00 BA). So he has enough in the arsenal to keep hitters off-balance until they get a full book on him. Because of that, I think there’s value in the young SP today against the Bronx Bombers.
Top Stacks to Target:
MIAMI:
There may come a day when I have to stop attacking Patrick Corbin. And now that Miami has made it to the bottom of the league (ISO and wRC+), today could be that day. But I just can’t turn my back on past history. There’s a reason he is the lowest priced pitcher on the board and has averaged just 5.7 DK points. Marlins batters have a combined 0.306 batting average and 0.677 slugging percentage off Corbin. Let’s look at a stack around Josh Bell which includes Arraez, Chisholm and De La Cruz. I’ll also Avisail Garcia if he plays today as he has 2 career dingers off Corbin.
REDS:
The Reds broke out the sticks yesterday and racked up 8 runs against the Rangers. Today they face Dane Dunning who has a 4.61 ERA but a 6.54 FIP. Batters are batting just 0.196 off Dunning and more importantly just 0.197 on balls in play. These numbers are sure to regress towards the MLB average showing why his FIP is much higher than his ERA. But what’s really noteworthy is that he’s allowed a home run in each of his starts for a total of seven. He’s also walked 16 batters in 5 starts. So there will be ducks on the pond today and I’m looking at a stack circled around Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Jonathan India (who is coming off a 4 for 4 game).
METS:
Over the past two weeks, the Mets have found their power game. They rank in the top 10 in ISO, home runs (11) and wRC+ in that span. And the reason I’m focused on those numbers is because they face Lance Lynn today. Lynn led the majors in home runs allowed last year with 44. While he’s allowed just 4 so far this year, I look for that number to go up today in New York. The weather is hot, and the Mets have been hitting the long ball led by 1B Pete Alonso. I’ll center a stack around the Polar Bear and add in Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo and Marte. Depending on the catcher situation on a Sunday, I will also consider Alvarez if he suits up.
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