Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Sunday Funday edition of Win Daily’s MLB Betting and DFS articles. I was hot most of the week in MLB bets but yesterday left a sour note as the Astros blew a 2-run lead in the 9th to the lowly Nationals to put us in the negative for the day. But it’s Sunday, a day we bounce back as shown last week where we went 3-0. So, let’s get right at it and try to find some winners on a full card today.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
SEATTLE MARINERS -195 at COLORADO ROCKIES (GAME 1)
While this is a bigger number than I normally like to take, the numbers show a wide gap in starting pitching expected performance. We noted last Monday that George Kirby was headed towards positive regression and did just that picking up a win against the Cincinnati Reds. In that game, Kirby went 6 innings allowing just 5 hits and 2 ER. However, his FIP is still 3 runs lower than his ERA (6.64 vs 3.08) showing his pitching performances still have improvement to come. On the other hand, Cal Quantrill is pitching exactly like his numbers show. He doesn’t strike anyone out (4.7 K/9) and his 5.57 ERA is met with a 5.66 FIP. I expect the Seattle bats to take advantage of that and build on yesterday’s momentum.
ATLANTA BRAVES -145 vs TEXAS RANGERS
Speaking of regression, we have today’s biggest candidate taking center stage in Texas Rangers SP Michael Lorenzen. His 0.00 ERA has a 4.63 FIP to match. He’s had the fortune of hard-hit balls finding gloves. Now, I realize he’s pitched just 5 innings but the step up in class from Detroit to Atlanta is huge. He saw the Braves three times last year and allowed 14 runs in 11.1 innings, Even more eye-opening were the 17 hits he allowed to Braves hitters resulting in a 2.04 WHIP. And while Braves SP Darius Vines also has a higher FIP than his 1.93 ERA, the history of Braves bats against Lorenzen has me running to the betting window for this Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
DOG OF THE DAY: BALTIMORE ORIOLES +105 at KANSAS CITY ROYALS
These two teams have split the first two games in their weekend series in Kansas City. And the primary reason I’m backing the road team here is that I’m eyeing negative regression for Royals SP Seth Lugo. So far, he’s pitched brilliantly as he owns a 3-0 record a 1.05 ERA. The latter number is good for 4th best in baseball. But in three of his four starts, he’s faced the two worst hitting teams in baseball in the White Sox and Twins. Today, he faces the Orioles who have the 4th best team BA and have the most HR’s in the league (31). It’s a much different lineup than what he’s been facing so far this season.
On the other side of the field, Orioles SP Cole Irvin has one of the biggest differences in ERA and FIP, (-2.23). That’s due to batters having a 0.325 average off him this year. We see that trending downwards over the few starts. And for those reason, there is good value in the O-birds as dogs today.
PROJECTED LINE: Rays -130 / +30% EV
PLAYER PROPS
AARON NOLA over 6.5 K’s (+120 DK)
I’ve seen all I’ve needed to see from the White Sox the past two games to feel confident riding this plus prop. For one, Phillies SP’s lead the league in ERA and K’s. And secondly, both Zack Wheeler and Spencer Turnbull had no hitters past 6 innings versus the hapless White Sox bats. Even though Nola’s K’s are down somewhat this year, he’s always been someone who could get swings and misses on his off-speed offerings. The White Sox are 22nd against the curve and 24th against the change-up, which are two of Nola’s best pitches.
GEORGE KIRBY over 5.5 K’s (-105 DK)
We’re going back to Kirby today in Colorado. He’s only gone over his K prop once in four starts. But he has surpassed 5.5 K’s in two of his outings. So, the books have brought this number down to good number and one I’m putting cash down on. The Rockies have a 26.9% K rate which is 4th highest in baseball. And just yesterday, Luis Castillo struck out nine Colorado batters. This is an opportune number that may change throughout the day so grab the 5.5 while it lasts.
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – GIANCARLO STANTON over 0.5 HRs
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Rays starter Aaron Civale has a 46% FB rate. Bring that to Yankees Stadium, one of the smallest in baseball, and we’re sure to see at least one baseball leave the yard. I’ll back that Stanton does that today as he has 2 career HR’s off Civale.
DFS – 1:35 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 11.
Top Pitchers to Target:
EDWARD CABRERA ($8700 DK): This is your ultimate GPP play. Edward Cabrera could walk off Wrigley Field today with negative fantasy points. Or he could shine like he did in his last start when he struck out ten SF batters. At $8700, and with a K rate over 40%, this is a spot I’m willing to back even against a tough lineup like the Cubs.
AARON NOLA ($10800 DK): There’s not a lot of pitching depth on the slate today. Which means we’ll have to pay up somewhere. And of the top arms, you can’t go wrong fading the Chicago White Sox. The Sox are batting a major league worst 0.190. They also have the lowest ISO and fewest home runs (10) in baseball.
SONNY GRAY ($9500 DK): If you want to go a notch lower than Nola, and save $1300 for your bats, my next stop at the top would be Sonny Gray. He’s been fantastic in his first two starts as he’s yet to allow an earned run over 11 innings of work. And he’s only averaged 68 pitches in those starts. I expect a longer leash today, which means we could see 6+ innings from Gray leading towards a potential 20+ point outing. Yes, Milwaukee is hitting well, but prior to yesterday’s outburst then had only 3 runs in their past two games. That was due to two softer throwing RHP’s, Michael King and Kyle Gibson, using their repertoire of pitches to keep the Brewers off-balance. Sonny Gray has a similar makeup to those two pitchers and we’re looking for him to post similar numbers if not better.
VALUE PITCHERS
HUNTER BROWN ($6800 DK): The Astros SP showed signs of turning it around in his last start against a good lineup in Atlanta. It couldn’t get much worse than his outing against KC when he didn’t even get out of the 1st inning. But the potential is there and he has a positive matchup against Washington who ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in ISO, wOBA and wRC+.
CASEY MIZE ($6600 DK): Right now, it’s worth taking almost any pitcher against the Twins. Minnesota is batting a collective 0.194, good for 29th in baseball. And they have just 66 runs scored which is 28th. Mize was a prized prospect for Detroit and is starting to show his potential. He’s allowed three runs or less in all three of his starts. And his K rate is creeping up towards 20% which is what we look for in arms. And again, it’s the Twins who are keeping pitchers employed this year with their lack of power and high K rate.
Top Stacks to Target:
MIAMI MARLINS: We stacked Arizona against SP Kyle Hendricks earlier this week. And it paid off nicely as he served up two more home runs to bring his season total to 7. Look to stack together several Marlins bats, including Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: The Phillies bats have come alive in the past few days. It helps when you face the Rockies and White Sox in consecutive series. But you still have to put the bat on the ball which the Phillies have done to the tune of 16 runs in the past two games. Look at Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Bohm and Marsh as they have been having the best success of late at the plate.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES:
NEW YORK YANKEES: It’s a small sample size, but the trio of Rizzo, Stanton and Torres are a combined 12 for 25 off Rays SP Aaron Civale. As noted prior, Civale has a high fly ball rate which doesn’t mix well with Yankee stadium. Look at Soto and Judge as well when putting together your NY stacks.
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