Dave Gloeckner 
While golf takes center stage today with the 2024 Masters playing its final round, there is also a great MLB slate (and NBA) on tap. We have the Brewers looking for a sweep in Baltimore in one of the more surprising series of the young season. Other teams looking to pull off a weekend series sweep are the Reds (vs CHW) and Yankees (vs CLE). For DFS, we have several aces taking the bump today for their teams. But it’s the middle of the pack today that looks to have some real value. It’s a great Sunday to sit back and enjoy a wonderful day of sports.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -145 vs ST LOUIS CARDINALS
The D’backs got a 3-run homer from Lourdes Gurriel Jr yesterday to take Game 2 of their series with the St Louis Cardinals. Today, they give the ball to their ace, Zac Gallen as they attempt to win the series. Gallen has started off 2024 with three solid outings, posting a 2.25 ERA and registering 19 K’s in 16 innings pitched. His FIP is even better, sitting at 2.00. The Cardinals hand the ball to their defacto ace in Miles Mikolas. He’s had mixed results so far, posting a 1-1 record and 4.76 ERA. But what stands out is his road ERA (6.10) and day time ERA (10.38). Small sample size but enough to see a difference in quality between the two starters. And enough for me to back the home favorite in Arizona today.
PROJECTED LINE: Dbacks -155 / 7% EV
OAKLAND ATHLETICS -125 vs WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The A’s have been a small surprise this year sitting at 6-9 over their first 15 games. They’ve been doing it with pitching as their staff ERA, 3.71, is 10th best in the MLB. And they can give credit to their bullpen as that unit has the 5th best ERA in baseball at 2.64. The Nats, on the other hand, have the 10th worst staff ERA at 4.43. Today they send out SP Trevor Williams who has an impressive 2.61 ERA to start the year. But that is coming with some smoke-and-mirrors as his xERA is 5.01 and SIERA is 5.25. On the flip side, Alex Wood has a 8.03 ERA but a 4.54 FIP showing positive regression is headed his way.
I’ll bet that the A’s continue to quiet the Nats bats with positive regression from Alex Wood and that Trevor Williams has the negative regression that our numbers show are coming.
DOG OF THE DAY: TAMPA BAY RAYS +105 vs SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
The Giants are handing the ball to free agent prize SP Blake Snell today. Snell is making his 2nd start for SFG and is still rounding into form. He’s also facing his former team today in the Tampa Bay Rays which could add some extra juice to his game today. I’m banking on him being amped up, and wild, today allowing the Rays to keep the pressure on him. The Rays are going with a bullpen game today which they used in Game 1 of this series when they held the Giants to 1 run and just 6 hits.
PROJECTED LINE: Rays -130 / +30% EV
PLAYER PROPS
JESUS LUZARDO over 5.5 K’s (-120 DK)
Luzardo has pitched some great games against Atlanta. In the past 2 years, he’s had three outings with 8+ Ks including a 12 strike out game. Braves batters have a career 36.7% K rate in 98 plate appearances.
CORBIN BURNES under 7.5 K’s (-140 DK)
Burnes faces his former team today when he takes the mound against the Brewers. Overall, Burnes has been great so far in his new threads posting a 2-0 record and 1.93 ERA. But he’s gone under his K prop in 2 of 3 starts. And Milwaukee has a 21.7% K rate which is 16th in the MLB. This number is high, and juiced appropriately. And while Baltimore needs a win, I’m going to bank on the Brewers to try and attack Burnes early in counts and get some balls in play.
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – ZAC GELOF over 0.5 HR’s (+525 DK), over 0.5 hits (-210 DK) and over 1.5 bases (+135 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
We’ll go with a triple threat bet today in Oakland. We spoke earlier how Trevor Williams is due for negative regression. So we’ll attack that with the A’s best hitter in Zac Gelof. While a small sample size, he is 3 for 3 in his career off Williams including 2 home runs.
DFS – 1:35 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 11.
Top Pitchers to Target:
ZAC WHEELER ($9900 DK): The Phillies ace has a 1.90 ERA in his first three starts. Yet he’s 0-2 and the Phillies are 0-3 in his starts. The offense has scored just 4 runs total in those three games. But offense doesn’t matter much (outside of helping get 4 points for a win) when we’re forecasting DFS numbers for SP’s. The weather is beautiful in the northeast and I expect Wheeler to continue his early season dominance and perform as the best pitcher on the slate.
UPDATE: CINCY GAME IS POSTPONED SO NEED TO RECONSIDER ARMS AND PIVOT TO ALLAN WINANS $7900 & BRADY SINGER $8200. Of the two, I’ll play Winans due to the differences in offenses between the Mets and Astros.
CORBIN BURNES ($9700 DK): While I’m betting against Burnes to go over his K prop, I will be playing him in DFS. He has double motivation going into today. One, he’s trying to help his team avoid a sweep at home. And two, he’s facing the only team he’s every played for before donning an Orioles shirt.
JESUS LUZARDO ($8700 DK): Luzardo has started 2024 just as poorly as his entire team. He has 3 starts and has allowed at least 1 home run in each. And he owns a 7.20 ERA over those starts. We all know that will change eventually as Luzardo owns a 3.45 ERA over the past 2 seasons. And his recent performances against Atlanta, including a 2.31 ERA in 2023 versus the Braves, gives me optimism that this is a spot to attack. He will be on the low side of ownership which leads towards potential in GPP lineups.
JACK FLAHERTY ($8400 DK): The Tigers SP has one great start and one terrible one so far this year. Which is almost a definition of Flaherty’s career. He has the stuff to be dominant but can also blow up in a moment’s notice. But I’m good putting him in my lineups today because he faces a Twins team that is one of the worst offenses in baseball. Plus the Twins, own the 3rd highest K rate in baseball at 28.1%.
COLE RAGANS ($8300 DK): The Royals LHP is averaging 19.3 DK points per game in his first 3 starts. That number is powered by his strikeout totals as he has 21 over 17.1 innings and owns the 4th highest K rate on the slate at 28.4%. While the Mets have hit lefties well, they faced Ragans once and struggled off him getting just 3 hits in 18 plate appearances.
JOSE BERRIOS ($8300 DK): The Blue Jays SP comes into today with a 1.45 ERA in his first 3 starts. More impressively he’s gone at least 6 innings in each outing. Today he faces the Rockies who are a team we love to fade away from Coors. While the bats have fared better outside Colorado to start this season, they are just 2-7 overall on the road. I’ll ride Berrios’s hot start for today though I do expect him to work back towards a 4.00 ERA for the season.
Top Stacks to Target:
BLUE JAYS: The Jays get to tee off against Rockies SP Kyle Freeland today. Look at their RH bats such as Bichette, Guerrero, Springer, Kirk and Turner.
ASTROS: The Astros have some success off Rangers SP Nathan Eovaldi. And while Eovaldi has started red hot, that’s been against teams in the bottom half of the league in batting. Look at hitters near the top such as Altuve, Bregman, Tucker and Alvarez. If you go with just one, take Alvarez who is 11 for 15 in his career of Eovaldi.
REDS: White Sox SP Mike Soroka has a 6.14 ERA this year and has surrendered 3 home runs. Bring on the Reds who have the third highest ISO in baseball. I’ll look at bats such as De La Cruz, Steer, India, Candelario and Benson.
PHILLIES: Philadelphia hitters have a 0.364 batting average in over 100 plate appearances against Pirates SP Mitch Keller. Hitters such as Realmuto, Harper and Schwarber all have BA’s over 0.400 against Keller. I’ll also look to get Stott and Turner into some of my lineups as well as Brandon Marsh.
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