Allan Fabrykant 
PEREIRA V HILL
We finally made it!! UFC 300 is upon us, and we have an absolutely STACKED card tonight. This card features 12 current or former champions, an Olympic Gold Medalist, and a fighter who has won in both UFC 100 and UFC 200. The card will feature 13 fights, with some incredible matchups throughout, that will end with the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship belt on the line between the champion and a former champion. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 300 Pereira v Hill.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Jim Miller v Bobby Green
There weren’t a lot of underdogs that got my attention on this card except for this one. Miller has really been turning back the clock lately, with five wins over his last six fights. For his UFC 300 matchup, he’ll be facing off against Bobby Green, who, like Miller, has had a very long UFC career but has lost three of his last five fights.
These two were actually set to face off three times before. However, Bobby Green was responsible for canceling the fight every time. The first time was due to an injury (2014), the second due to a bad weight cut (2021), and the third due to a failed drug test (2022).
Although many see Bobby Green as the favorite due to Miller’s age, Green is only three years younger and far less experienced in grappling. Jim has been a BJJ Black Belt since 2010, and Green is a Purple Belt.
Statistically, they are both pretty even, with Green having an edge in striking and Miller having an edge in grappling. Miller has been counted out many times, especially towards the later years of his career, and he has shown the ability to come back and silence the critics many times. I can see this fight turning into grapple-fest, so I wouldn’t expect a finish here, but I think there is some real value on Miller in this spot.
If Miller wins, he will have secured wins in UFC 100, UFC 200 and now UFC 300
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jim Miller UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Cody Garbrandt
Here, we have the first of three fights between two fighters who have held UFC gold in their careers. Garbrandt held the Bantamweight belt from 2016-2017, and Figueiredo held the Flyweight strap from 2020-2021.
Both fighters have experienced the highs and lows of becoming champions, and both relied on their incredible striking to propel them to the top. Now, as they face off against each other, Figueiredo is coming in with a clear edge. For me there’s a very clear reason as to why. Fundamentals. Figueiredo’s fundamentals are simply much better than Garbrandt’s. His striking is a lot cleaner, and he is a better grappler, holding a BJJ Black Belt.
I can see this fight starting off close, and then as the fight goes on, Figueiredo will begin to see the holes in Garbrandt’s game, make adjustments, and look to finish the fight.
This is an electric fight to start off UFC 300, and I am taking Figueiredo to win.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Deiveson Figueiredo by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage
Bo Nickal is the biggest betting favorite in UFC history, coming in at -2000 pre-fight. Nickal is a special fighter with insane wrestling abilities. He has won three consecutive NCAA wrestling championships and is rapidly improving his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Brundage, coming from a similar wrestling background, will have his difference in skill level exposed very early on, whether it be striking or grappling.
The oddsmakers are bang-on with this fight. I do not see a path to victory for Brundage, and I think Nickal will put him away early.
It is very hard to find value at -2000, but for some reason, we have incredible value on a Bo Nickal submission win at -138. We can’t pass up this kind of opportunity. Despite Nickal’s lack of experience in the octagon, it’s safe to say that he’ll look to wrestle early and finish the fight in the first round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Bo Nickal FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill
This is an incredible main event and the perfect last fight for a stacked UFC 300 card. Both of these fighters have held UFC Gold, with Pereira currently holding the Light Heavyweight Strap and previously holding the Middleweight Championship, while Hill previously held the Light Heavyweight belt, vacating his title after rupturing his Achilles tendon. Now Hill is back and will look to reclaim his belt.
Pereira’s main skillset is very well known. He is a Glory Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion and finished with an impressive record of 33 wins and seven losses, including two wins over current UFC Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.
Pereira’s striking accuracy really sets him apart from Hill in this fight, with 62% accuracy over Hill’s 54%. I can see this fight being a war for 25 minutes, with Pereira ultimately coming out on top, and although the odds are close, Pereira will set the tone of the fight early with the kicks and utilize his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills if needed.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alex Pereira UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible THIRD-ROUND KO)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Weili Zhang v Xiaonan Yan Fight to Go the Distance -105
Bo Nickal by Submission -138
Aljamain Sterling -170
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Kayla Harrison to win via Decision +135
- Justin Gaethje (Double Chance KO or Decision) -160
