Dave Gloeckner 
We had a solid day in the MLB Game Betting Market registering a 3-1 record. The Marlins blew a 5-0 lead and lost in extra innings to give us our only loss. Our one “dog of the day” won as the Phillies came back to beat the Braves and give us a nice plus money win. Overall, game bets are 6-6 with a -0.85 unit loss on the season. It’s early but what we’ve seen is the favorites get out to a hot start but the dogs rule the day of late. If you bet all the underdogs yesterday, you would have gone 9-6 with a 4.1 unit profit. As for props, we hit the K prop but lost out with our hitters bringing us to -0.7 units in that market.
This year, both Jared and I will be posting articles and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
Games start at 2pm today. Below will highlight bets and props from the full card and DFS Plays from the 7:10pm slate.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
SEATTLE MARINERS -130 vs CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
The Mariners split their opening series against the Boston Red Sox with each team winning 2 games. It was an evenly contested series with the M’s winning both their games by 1 run each. The Guardians fared slightly better winning 3 of 4 in Oakland. They did it in convincing fashion as they are tied with the league lead in run differential at +18.
Today each team turns to their 5th pitcher as the Mariners hand the ball to Emerson Handcock and the Guardians put Triston McKenzie on the rubber. Both suffered injuries last year which cut their season short. For McKenzie, it was most of the season as he suffered multiple injuries and threw just 16 innings. For Hancock, he came up in August but was shut down after 3 starts due to should stiffness.
The Mariners have started the season with 45 strikeout and a 32.8% K rate (2nd worst in MLB) at the dish. But the good news is that McKenzie isn’t a high volume strikeout pitcher of late, averaging less than 1 K/inning in his past two seasons. His fastball averaged just 92 MPH last season. Maybe that’s due to injury, so we’ll have to see how he comes out of the gates this season. Plus, in 3 starts against Seattle, the Cleveland SP is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. On the other hand, Hancock is a former first round pick (2020) and has good change of speeds. He also has a lower K rate than desired, but is effective at getting weaker contact.
The Mariners have played the tougher games to date and are due to break out offensively. I’ll take the M’s tonight at home to get a W.
PROJECTED LINE: Mariners -155 / EV +47%
TAMPA BAY RAYS -120 vs TEXAS RANGERS
The Rays are notorious for their reclamation projects at pitcher. And I think this year will be no exception with their new project being Ryan Pepiot. The Rays SP came over from the Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade. He has appeared in 17 games starting just 10 of those. But the Rays saw enough in his potential to start developing him into a full time starter for 2024. And he looked good in spring training, especially during the latter half. I got to see him live in Clearwater where he pitched 5 dominant innings against the Phillies.
The Rangers are handing the ball to Dane Dunning who had a very solid 2023 season winning a career high 12 games. And while he’s had some success against Tampa, as Rays regulars are batting just 0.166 against him, that has been in very limited action.
The Rays were knocked out of the playoffs by the Rangers. On the very field they’ll play this game. I think there is some motivation here and I’ll back the Ray to provide some payback for last year using their new toy in Ryan Pepiot.
PROJECTED LINE: Rays -125 / EV +5%
DOG OF THE DAY: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +180 vs LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Giants split their opening series against the Padres this past weekend. And guess who else split a series with San Diego, that’s right it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers. While that’s not much of a handicapping angle, what we’re focusing on is the pitching matchup today when 25-year-old Keaton Winn (SFG) faces off against 35-year-old James Paxton (LAD). Against SDP, the Giants had 21 plate appearances against LHP’s and batted 0.368 (2nd best in MLB) with 2 home runs. And they’re starting pitcher today, Keaton Winn, had his last start of 2023 against the Dodgers where he allowed 6 ER’s on 3 home runs. He’s had 6 months to think about that start and believe he will come out motivated today.
We have one of the biggest rivalries in the MLB in this one, and when that happens we can see some big upsets. So I’ll swing for the fences with the Giants today to take down their hated counterparts of So Cal.
PROJECTED LINE: Giants +185 / EV EVEN
PLAYER PROPS
MAX MEYER over 4.5 K’s (-120 DK)
We are already at the point where taking the SP K prop over against the Angels is automatic. Sure that will come to a point where the books adjust, but SP’s are 3-0 in the over K prop against the Angels so far. Former #3 overall pick Max Meyer gets the opportunity to make it 4 straight today in Miami. Meyer missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery but looked good this spring in a small workload. He struck out more than 1 batter per inning in Grapefruit League play as he looks to settle into a permanent starting role for the Marlins.
The one concern today will be how long they let Meyer pitch. But if we can get 70 pitches then I have full confidence that Meyer will be able to put up 5 K’s against this free swinging lineup.
ANDREW ABBOTT over 5.5 K’s (-110 DK)
The Phillies saw Chris Sale yesterday, a similar LHP to Abbott, and struck out 7 times against the southpaw. Abbott has a 26.1% K rate in 2023 with almost 10 K’s/9 innings. The Phillies are unlikely to sit Harper and Stott again so Abbott will see more left-handed batters than Sale did. I think this is a good number to attack for a good strikeout pitcher.
CODY BELLINGER over 0.5 RBI’s (+145 DK) & over 1.5 H+R+R (-150 DK)
Dakota Hudson was bad last year. And he didn’t find the greatest of homes settling his 4.98 into the comfy confines of Coors Field. But more importantly, he struggled everywhere outside of St Louis. He had a 6.57 ERA on the road and a 0.336 BA against. And that worsened versus LHB’s where he allowed a 0.406 BA on the road. Bellinger has his number batting 5 for 10 in his career off Hudson.
ALEX BREGMAN over 0.5 HR (+500 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
The best spot to attack tonight is in Houston as we have a fly ball pitcher in a park that has warm weather and wind blowing out. First off, Bowden Francis has a ~50% fly ball rate every year he’s pitched whether it’s in the Majors or Minors. And in AAA last year he had a 21.5 HR/FB rate. The weather in Houston is 80 degrees tonight with projected wind blowing out to C/RCF. So far Bregman is hitting fly balls, at a 50% clip, and he’s coming off a 28 home run season. I like this spot for several Astros hitters but will tie my betting wagon to their third baseman.
DFS – 7:10 PM SLATE
Tonight is a tricky slate with 7 games to choose from. There are no true aces and the highest salaried SP on the card pitched just 16 total innings last year.
Top Pitchers to Target:
TYLER HOUCK ($8400 DK): Houck had an impressive spring and won a spot in the rotation based on that. He flashed a 2.40 ERA with 16 K’s in 15 innings in Grapefruit League play. He’s been labeled as a sleeper in many fantasy leagues as he possesses plus stuff. His slider alone had a 0.187 BA against with a 38% whiff rate. And he throws that pitch at the highest rate in his arsenal.
REESE OLSON ($8200 DK): Reese Olson has the 2nd highest projected points in our DFS model for SP’s tonight. He is looking to build off a solid rookie season where he started 18 games and had solid numbers including a WHIP of 1.12 and 1.0 K/9 innings. His slider is also formidable, posting a 41% whiff rate on that particular offering. The Mets lineup looks like a mixed bag of bad. They hit 0.202 over the weekend and rank 25th in wOBA, wRC+ and BA to start the season.
KYLE GIBSON ($7900 DK): I’ve seen the good and ugly with Kyle Gibson. And so did Baltimore which made him expendable. But St Louis was desperate for arms and look to see if they can create more good than ugly in Gibson’s outings. One positive note is that Gibson has worse splits against lefties including 50 points BA higher as well as 85 points higher Slugging %. The Padres project to start 1-2 left-handed bats tonight. Combine that with the park metrics and Gibson could have a solid return on investment.
SEAN MANAEA ($7800 DK): This is one of the reclamation projects the Mets have invested in. Luis Severino was also one of those, and didn’t show well in his first outing. But Manaea has high K potential, and posted his 2nd highest K rate of his career in 2023 (25.7%). Add in the fact that the weather is cold and windy (blowing in) up in New York and the park is conducive to pitchers.
JOE BOYLE ($7500 DK): The big Oakland RHP has our highest projected points and value tonight in the model. Big may be an understatement as the SP stands at 6’7” and 240 pounds. But for the aforementioned modeling outpus, he’s our NUMBER ONE recommended SP today in both cash and GPP’s. He ended last season with a 1.69 ERA across his last 3 starts. And he’s been good in spring training this year which led him to securing a spot in the rotation.
KEATON WINN ($6300 DK): Tread carefully here as Winn is facing a prolific offense in the Dodgers tonight. But our model has him producing almost 2x value placing him in our top 4 of SP’s per value rating. Winn is young, and like his other counterpart in the rotation in Kyle Harrison, has high upside. If you want to pay up for a stack, Winn could be the perfect piece to make your lineups work.
Top Stacks to Target:
NEW YORK YANKEES: Of the SP’s starting tonight, Arizona SP Rhyne Nelson had the worst ERA (5.31) and 2nd lowest K rate (15%). The Yankees are coming into this game hot by sweeping the Astros. Their batting metrics such as BA, wOBA, ISO and wRC+ are all in the top 10 after facing a top 5 pitching staff. Look for Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton and Oswaldo Cabrera to be key members of a Bronx Bombers stack.
HOUSTON ASTROS: In our model, three of the top eight hitters don Astros jerseys; Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Both Jose Abreu and Alex Bregman have value too as they exhibit high fly ball rates and are facing a pitcher who puts them in the air. The Astros are also likely boiling from their weekend series versus the Yanks. It’s likely a bad night to a baseball in Houston as I project a team total over 6. Not mentioned in the top hitters is Chas McCormick who I’m very high on this year. If he plays, consider adding him to part of your Astros stack.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS: Staying in this Houston/Toronto game, I’ll also look to stack the away team tonight as they come in off a 9-run performance in Tampa yesterday. Opposing pitcher, Ronel Blanco, had a 5.99 FIP last year. He also allowed 12 home runs in just 52 innings of work. Toronto hitters have the 9th highest hard hit rate with the likes of Kiermaier, Guerrero, Turner and Biggio leading the charge. As always, Spring and Bichette should be included in your stack considerations as should Daulton Varsho. Both Biggio and Kiermaier are good value plays tonight.
SNEAKY STACK – OAKLAND ATHLETICS: The A’s didn’t hit for much this weekend but they can provide you a lot of value in the DFS market. While Houck is one of our options, if you avoid him and want to pay up for the Dodgers you could also mix in some A’s hitters. Zac Gelof sits in the top 11 of our projections in points. If Esteury Ruiz starts he’s always a good value candidate because of his speed. Ryan Noda and JD Davis are also projecting well in our models.
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