DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
The PGA Tour descends upon TPC Sawgrass, where this iconic course plays host once again to the “5th Major” as we preview The Players Championship 2024. Perhaps contentious is to argue whether this still represents the best field in golf. Yes, the field is undoubtedly weakened compared to previous iterations. The shame, for golf fans more than anything else, is that such a field with all the best players no longer exists due to the rather political current state of the game of professional men’s golf.
My stance is this is still the best we get. It is true both in terms of depth but also the size of the field. Surely, the best field in golf is the most difficult to beat. That remains true statistically, just. Arguments could be made for the US Open and The Open Championship. Until then, we wait for the powers that be to reunite the game (hopefully).
Another great week, especially on the DP World Tour. We had 2nd place Jordan Smith in our tips, as well as a great run from 190/1 selection Pavan in South Africa.
At the Puerto Rico Open, all 6 of our tips made the cut. 5/6 of our golf betting tips finishing 23rd or better. Victor Perez was our strongest as he finished 3rd, just one shot outside the playoff.
Alongside all The Players betting tips, we already have some juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are delivering great closing line value.
We’ve already hit Matthieu Pavon at a MASSIVE 125/1 to start 2024 with a bang!
Jump in and grab an annual membership with a MASSIVE 50% off!
Select an annual membership with exclusive PROMO code “DEEPDIVEDEAL” at check-out when you join at this link.
The Players Preview: TPC Sawgrass Course Analysis
Assisting our preview of The Players this week is a return to a regular venue. TPC Sawgrass has hosted this event since 1982, so he have a ton of data to deep-dive into.
Despite not being the longest course at 7,275 yards par 72, this track always proves a stern test. Winning scores in the low to mid teens have been common here. Much of that comes down to the abundant water hazards on the course, with water in-play on 17 of the 18 holes. Rough is a thick 3.5in ryegrass and is penal. Greens are small at just under 5,500 sq ft on average. And we see a return to poa annua surfaces, which we will experience on the majority of courses in Florida.
This eye-test is reflected in the data. The course ranks in the top 5 highest penalties for missed fairways and in the top 6 for number of penalties every year since 2015. Therefore, driving accuracy is a large predictor of success here. The course actually ranks inside the top 10 shortest for average driving distance as players seek to find the short stuff.
Approach is also tricky. TPC Sawgrass has ranked as the 2nd, 2nd, and 1st most difficult on the tour for approach under 150 yards over the last 3 years. We also see a disproportionate number of shots within those ranges compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.
Find the fairways, nail or wedges, avoid the water, and make your putts is the recipe for success at TPC Sawgrass.
The Players Preview: TPC Sawgrass Course Comps
Course history is not actually overly strong at TPC Sawgrass. The volatile nature of the golf course explains that fact. However, another benefit to our preview of The Players is it has one of the strongest correlations to another golf course that we will see all year.
Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, is extremely correlated to success at TPC Sawgrass. Si Woo Kim has not only won at both, but also has an additional 9th here to compliment a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th at Sedgefield. Webb Simpson loves the Wyndham Championship so much he named his daughter after the event. He is also a winner of The Players Championship. You can also add Henrik Stenson down as another to complete the winning double. It should be your key guide as you preview The Players field this week.
Other parallels can be found at the RBC Heritage host Harbour Town, another fiddly course designed by Pete Dye. It puts pressure on finding fairways and on short approach shots.
From the DP World Tour, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth makes some nice links. Viktor Hovland has finished 5th there in 2022 and 2023 while finishing 9th and 3rd at The Players the same year. Aaron Rai has finished 14th and 2nd at Wentworth and finished an admirable 19th in his only appearance at TPC Sawgrass. Shane Lowry has a win, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th, 11th, 13th, 15th, 17th and 18th around Wentworth. He also has an 8th, 13th and 16th at TPC Sawgrass. Christiaan Bezuidenhout also links the two courses nicely. He holds a 3rd and 5th at Wentworth, plus finished 13th at The Players and also has the sneaky hidden -7 1st round in 2020 before the tournament was suspended at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Weather
TPC Sawgrass, with it’s premium on accuracy and exposed nature, has seen some significant weather edges develop in recent iterations.
Perhaps most notably was in 2022. The entire industry was on a singular weather wave due to significant winds in the forecast. We took a contrarian stance to the industry, spotting a high risk of thunderstorms meaning play was likely to be delayed. We got the weather spot on, and enjoyed huge leverage as a result with the biggest weather edge of the season.
Both Thursday and Friday represent a similar forecast in terms of wind. There are easier conditions in the morning leading to higher gusts in the afternoon. The only wrinkle in this is that heavy rain and thunderstorms are once again on the cards for the Friday afternoon. Saturday afternoon looks very windy, but the morning should be calm until about midday.
At this stage, the forecast still remains a little uncertain. If you were to hedge your bets, it may again pay to be a little contrarian. Target those going Thursday AM and Friday PM in the hope thunderstorms delay play. This would push those groups to a calmer Saturday morning. As always, check-in to the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord for the latest in the forecast.
The Players Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for The Players Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here shortly or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking. You can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.
Less than a month to go to The Masters!
JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get our best deal with 50% off our annual membership. That’s just $249.99!
You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value!
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.
Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of The Players Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
