DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
It’s rare that we deep-dive into any match-up bets before the weekend. We don’t often delve into the round by round bets early in tournaments as there is benefit (and an edge) to be had in extracting some extra data for the week. So, when we do, it pays to pay attention. At the Genesis Invitational, David Bieleski (@DeepDiveGolf) has found some 3 balls with promising returns.
As always, make sure you have delved into all our deep-dive into this course. We cover the key metrics for Riviera Country Club to find success at Riviera Country Club. You can find my pre-tournament statistical analysis of the Genesis Invitational here.
You can also catch the most recent PGA Draftcast episode below. Catch us live on YouTube every Tuesday at 9PM ET.
Best Bets: Round 2 3-Balls
J.J Spaun over Luke List and Kevin Yu
3u +225 Unibet (+220 MGM)
Justin Thomas over Tiger Woods and Gary Woodland
5u -115 Bet365 (-118 MGM)
Adam Scott over Alex Smalley and Taylor Montgomery
5u +100 William Hill (+100 MGM/FanDuel)
Treble Spaun/JT/Scott to win their 3-ball
1u +1068 Bet365
Boxed Doubles Spaun/JT/Scott to win their 3-ball
6u (3 x 2u Doubles) Bet365
Genesis Invitational: J.J. Spaun over List/Yu
Let’s be real: Luke List (+120) is a dreadful putter. He just gained +4.59 SG: Putt in round 1 to lead the field putting. He has only gained putting at this course in 1/8 tournaments at the Genesis Invitational. We can expect some regression.
As to the other in the 3-ball, Kevin Yu (+200) shot +4 today without a single birdie. He lost across the board in all SG metrics.
Meanwhile, J.J. Spaun ranked 68/70 losing -3.31 SG: Putt in round 1, is statistically a better putter than List, and has gained putting here in 3/6 tournaments at Riviera. He was also 7th for SG: APP.
Very happy to take the underdog in this 3-ball at long odds.
Genesis Invitational: Justin Thomas over Woods/Woodland
JT really shot himself over the first 9 holes, losing -2.13 strokes putting and -1.27 approach on the front 9 alone. Perhaps he was simply Tiger-struck? He found his game over the 2nd half of the round, gaining +1.52 SG: APP and +1.19 SG: Putt. Thomas also lost -0.94 SG: ATG on the round.
He has gained 4+ strokes putting at the Genesis Invitational in 4/6 most recent events at Riviera. That includes when in the dreadful first 6 months to 2023. The Genesis Invitational was the only event he gained strokes putting. He has gained in SG: ATG at every tournament he has played here.
Woodland stats are massively buoyed by an eagle at the 11th hole. He has only gained putting in 1/6 at the Genesis Invitational and only finished better than 26th once. He has had his own medical issues to deal with and Woods obviously still suffering from both rust and injury, claiming the shank at the last was due not to the leg but a back-spasm. I’ll certianly be claiming back-spasms next time I shank the ball. Of course, he might produce some Woods magic but I like the number available on JT to continue the good form he showed on his 2nd 9.
Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott over Smalley/Montgomery
This bet is not so much about what Adam Scott did, but more about what the others didn’t do in round 1 at the Genesis Invitational.
Montgomery was 61st for SG: APP and 63rd for SG: OTT. Basically, his ranking of 65/70 in SG: T2G really tells the story of how poor his ball-striking was. He has only played the Genesis Invitational once last year, missing the cut.
Likewise, Alex Smalley was very poor in round 1. Having just lost -8.20 SG: APP at the WM Phoenix Open, he lost another -3.91 SG: APP on Thursday here. His Genesis Invitational record reads 72-MC.
Therefore, neither of these pose much threat to Adam Scott. Although he didn’t play brilliantly, he was still better statistically than his two competitors. Scott is a two time winner at the Genesis Invitational and has been in brilliant form in 2024. Look for a return to business in the 2nd round.
