Jason Mezrahi 
I will keep this short and sweet. If you have been following my run in Discord for the past 3 months of NFL and NBA prop betting you would have your next 10 years of membership paid in full. If you haven’t followed along today is a good day to start trailing some NBA Prop bets. Last night we went 4-1 from the article bets but added 4 units as we had 2 units on Fultz. You guys know I don’t parlay bets too often but the boys in Discord Expert Chat of course did and had another great night cashing in!
The place I start my research process daily is reviewing the entire NBA Player Prop Model here. I will publish this after locking my first bet and will be adding more throughout the day if I find value elsewhere.
Khris Middleton over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -122 FanDuel
Middleton has gone over 25.5 PRA in 6 of his last 8 games and gets a juicy matchup here versus the Mavs. The total is sitting at 246 and as long as Lilliard doesn’t chuck and shoot a horrible shooting percentage we should be good. This team in my opinion somehow got worse with Lilliard. He is taking a ton of bad shots and is playing superhero when he should be playing Robin because Giannis is Batman. Back to Middleton, he is actively filling out the boxscore with assists and rebounds, and all he needs is get his shot up and be aggressive and this one becomes a smash play. We will lay 1 unit here but I may bumb this to 2 units later today in Discord.
Jalen Johnson over 15.5 Points -120 DraftKings
Jalen has gone over 15.5 points in 7 of the last 10 games and scored 21 points on 1/24 versus Golden State in his last game agains the Warriors. Our model has him as slight edge at 16.5 but he is soaking up minutes and increasing his role as the season goes on. 1 unit only here as this one may be tight if he doesn’t sink some threes, but with a 244 over/under we could easily cruise as well.
Dejounte Murray over 10.5 Rebounds plus Assists -120 FanDuel
Murray has gone over 10.5 in 8 of his last 9 games and stuffs the stat sheet on a daily basis. He gets all the minutes and should clear this number in a fast paced game with a ton of 3 pointers shot by the Warriors. Love the over/under and everything about getting action in this game. For the reasons above I’m trusting Murray and the over for 2 units.
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